This paper analyzes the effects that the Arab Spring and the subsequent revolution had on per capita real Gross Domestic Product in Egypt. The estimation procedure that we follow is the Synthetic Control Method. After comparing the observed evolution of Egyptian real output in the period 2011-2017 with that of synthetic Egypt, our estimates show i ) an accumulated loss in the growth rate of per capita real Gross Domestic Product of 12.04% (a yearly average of 1.56%); ii ) an accumulated loss in the per capita real Gross Domestic Product of 6,279.7 dollars (a yearly average of 897.1 dollars); and iii ) an accumulated loss in the aggregate real Gross Domestic Product of 582.5 billion dollars (a yearly average of 83.2 billion dollars) Keywords Case Study • Synthetic Control Method • Treatment Effect • Arab Spring • Egypt.
This paper analyses the effects that the 2012 VAT reform in Spain had on households' welfare, focusing on a major expenditure group: food and non-alcoholic beverages. Households' demands are modeled as a two-stage Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System, which is then estimated by means of a consistent two-step estimator introduced in Tauchmann (2010) and not previously used in studies of this type. This procedure allows consistent imposition of the traditional parameter restrictions that utility maximisation requires in the context of a censored model. Our results show that the welfare loss and the increment in the tax bill increase with income. We also show that expenditure on food and non-alcoholic beverages grows less than proportionately with income. Consequently, households with lower income experience a greater welfare loss relative to their income levels. In short, the 2012 VAT reform in Spain, focusing on this expenditure group, can be considered as regressive.
In 2011 a wave of revolutionary movements, the so-called Arab Spring, spread in the Middle East and North Africa. Libya was one of the most affected countries, ending Gaddafi's dictatorship after an international intervention and a civil war. This paper assesses the effects that this revolution had on Libyan economy. The analysis is made by means of the synthetic control method introduced by Abadie and Gardeazabal (2003). Our estimates for the 2011-2014 period show i) a cumulative loss in the growth rate of per capita real GDP of 64.15%; ii) a cumulative loss in per capita real GDP of 56,548 dollars; and iii) a cumulative loss in the aggregate real GDP of 350.5 billion dollars.
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