The Economic Consequences of the Libyan Spring: A Synthetic Control Analysis

Abstract

In 2011 a wave of revolutionary movements, the so-called Arab Spring, spread in the Middle East and North Africa. Libya was one of the most affected countries, ending Gaddafi's dictatorship after an international intervention and a civil war. This paper assesses the effects that this revolution had on Libyan economy. The analysis is made by means of the synthetic control method introduced by Abadie and Gardeazabal (2003). Our estimates for the 2011-2014 period show i) a cumulative loss in the growth rate of per capita real GDP of 64.15%; ii) a cumulative loss in per capita real GDP of 56,548 dollars; and iii) a cumulative loss in the aggregate real GDP of 350.5 billion dollars.

The economic cost of conflict: Evidence from South Sudan

“…In this respect, our findings are also similar to Lopez and Wodon (2005) who reported a permanent negative effect of the Rwanda genocide on per‐capita GDP in the range of 25%–30%. A related study showed that the effects of the Arab Spring on the Libyan economy resulted in a cumulative loss in the growth rate of GDP per capita of more than 64% during the 2011–2014 period, corresponding to a cumulative loss of real per‐capita GDP of more than US$56,000 and aggregate real GDP of more than US$350 billion (Echevarría & García‐Enríquez, 2019a).…”

“…This approach is widely used in the literature and has more recently been followed by, among others, Hodler (2019), Matta et al. (2019), and Echevarría and García‐Enríquez (2019a).…”

“…In this respect, therefore, we adopt a more pragmatic approach, choosing predictor variables such that synthetic South Sudan's real per-capita GDP reflects South Sudan's path as much as possible. This approach is widely used in the literature and has more recently been followed by, among others, Hodler (2019), Matta et al (2019), and Echevarría and García-Enríquez (2019a).…”

The nexus between social unrest and economic growth in Middle East and Central Asia countries

“…A representative, prominent example of such civil strife and unrest in the Middle East region is the Arab Spring. Depending on the country, it involved massive and often violent demonstrations and anti-government protests, uprisings and armed rebellions that affected many countries such as for instance Tunisia, Egypt, Bahrain, Oman, Yemen, Libya (inter alia: Cambrini and Zanotti, 2021;Matta et al, 2019;Hatab, 2019;Echevarr ıa and Garc ıa-Enr ıquez, 2019;Bettarelli, 2017;Anderson, 2011). However, as studies have shown the nexus between conflict and strife with the economy can be bidirectional.…”

Arab Spring and COVID-19: Ex post facto examination of the Lebanese banking sector (the contemporary stakeholder analysis)

“…A common cause identified in several studies was people's mistrust and disappointment in respective elite governments, unable to provide economic stability (Kireçci, 2020;Boucekkine et. al., 2016;Echevarría, & García-Enríquez, 2019). On the other hand, the COVID-19 pandemic has shaken the entire world and transformed every facet of society (Iacus et.…”