Independent data from the Gulf of Mexico are used to develop and test the hypothesis that the same sequence of physical and ecological events each year allows the toxic dinoflagellate Karenia brevis to become dominant. A phosphorus‐rich nutrient supply initiates phytoplankton succession, once deposition events of Saharan iron‐rich dust allow Trichodesmium blooms to utilize ubiquitous dissolved nitrogen gas within otherwise nitrogen‐poor sea water. They and the co‐occurring K. brevis are positioned within the bottom Ekman layers, as a consequence of their similar diel vertical migration patterns on the middle shelf. Upon onshore upwelling of these near‐bottom seed populations to CDOM‐rich surface waters of coastal regions, light‐inhibition of the small red tide of ∼1 ug chl l−1 of ichthytoxic K. brevis is alleviated. Thence, dead fish serve as a supplementary nutrient source, yielding large, self‐shaded red tides of ∼10 ug chl l−1.The source of phosphorus is mainly of fossil origin off west Florida, where past nutrient additions from the eutrophied Lake Okeechobee had minimal impact. In contrast, the P‐sources are of mainly anthropogenic origin off Texas, since both the nutrient loadings of Mississippi River and the spatial extent of the downstream red tides have increased over the last 100 years. During the past century and particularly within the last decade, previously cryptic Karenia spp. have caused toxic red tides in similar coastal habitats of other western boundary currents off Japan, China, New Zealand, Australia, and South Africa, downstream of the Gobi, Simpson, Great Western, and Kalahari Deserts, in a global response to both desertification and eutrophication.

Prior laboratory studies of Trichodesmium have shown a high iron requirement that is consistent with the biochemical demand for iron in the enzyme nitrogenase. Summer delivery of iron, in the form of Saharan dust, may provide an explanation for Trichodesmium blooms observed in offshore waters of the West Florida shelf over the last 50 yr. During ecology and oceanography of harmful algal blooms (ECOHAB) field studies, background iron levels (0.1-0.5 nmol kg Ϫ1 ) were found at the surface during periods of minimal dust delivery (May 2000 and October 1999). In contrast, total dissolved iron concentrations on the order of ϳ16 nmol kg Ϫ1 were measured at the West Florida shelf-break after a July 1999 Saharan dust event that was identified by advanced very high resolution radiometer (AVHRR) imagery, ground-based radiometers, air mass analysis, and aerosol samples (dust and non-sea-salt nitrate) collected throughout South Florida. The Trichodesmium response following this July dust event was a 100-fold increase over background biomass, reaching a surface stock of ϳ20 colonies L Ϫ1. Surface dissolved concentrations of both inorganic and organic phosphorus decreased below detectable limits during this bloom. Dissolved organic nitrogen concentrations associated with the bloom (15-20 M) were 3-4-fold greater than background and much larger than ambient NO concentrations (Ͻ0.5 mol kg Ϫ1 ). If all dissolved organic Ϫ 3 nitrogen (DON) is converted to urea and ammonium, this organic nitrogen could have supported the red tide of Ͼ20 g chl L Ϫ1 of the toxic dinoflagellate, Gymnodinium breve, found along the West Florida coast during October 1999.

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Gulf of Mexico Loop Current (LC) interactions with the West Florida Shelf (WFS) slope play an important role in shelf ecology through the upwelling of new inorganic nutrients across the shelf break. This is particularly the case when the LC impinges upon the shelf slope in the southwest portion of the WFS near the Dry Tortugas. By contacting shallow water isobaths at this “pressure point” the LC forcing sets the entire shelf into motion. Characteristic patterns of LC interactions with the WFS and their occurrences are identified using unsupervised neural network, self‐organizing map, from 23 years (1993–2015) of altimetry data. The duration of the occurrences of such LC patterns is used as an indicator of offshore forcing of anomalous upwelling. Consistency is found between the altimetry‐derived offshore forcing and the occurrence and severity of WFS coastal blooms of the toxic dinoflagellate, Karenia brevis: years without major blooms tend to have prolonged LC contact at the “pressure point,” whereas years with major blooms tend not to have prolonged offshore forcing. Resetting the nutrient state of the shelf by the coastal ocean circulation in response to deep‐ocean forcing demonstrates the importance of physical oceanography in shelf ecology. A satellite altimetry‐derived seasonal predictor for major K. brevis blooms is also proposed.

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