Sustainability commitments by private sector actors are emerging as promising interventions to help reduce global deforestation. Much attention is placed on the forest conservation impact of these interventions in areas where commodity production constitutes a main driver of deforestation. It is however less clearly understood what role they could play in areas where the production of commodities is not evidently leading to the loss of forest, and how they could contribute to other objectives including sustainable rural development and peacebuilding. In this paper, we examine the potential of the cocoa value chain in Colombia in achieving deforestation reduction and peacebuilding simultaneously, as aimed by the country's Cocoa, Forests and Peace Initiative. Results from correlations and spatially explicit analyses show that regardless of its widespread production across Colombia, cocoa is not an important driver of deforestation. This suggest that efforts to end deforestation in the Colombian cocoa sector emerged following global trends, and not because of an evident link between cocoa production and deforestation. Furthermore, results from spatial clustering analyses highlight areas where different types of value chain interventions may be appropriate to parallel forest conservation and peacebuilding, while interviews with key actors in the cacao sector provide clues as to how these interventions should be developed and implemented. Specifically, our results show that narratives around approaches to achieve zero-deforestation from agricultural commodities should (1) be adjusted to local contexts, (2) incorporate location-specific development needs, (3) complement existing rural development efforts, (4) enhance collaboration among actors that operate both within and beyond the value chain, and (5) apply high-resolution data to assess deforestation-commodity relations and verify zero-deforestation commitments. These considerations are particularly relevant in contexts where commodity production is not evidently leading to deforestation, as in the case of cocoa production in Colombia.

Both dispersal-and niche-based factors can impose major barriers on tree establishment. Our understanding of how these factors interact to determine recruitment rates is based primarily on findings from mature tropical forests, despite the fact that a majority of tropical forests are now secondary. Consequently, factors influencing seed limitation and the seed-to-seedling transition (STS) in disturbed landscapes, and how those factors shift during succession, are not well understood. We used a 3.5-yr record of seed rain and seedling establishment to investigate factors influencing tree recruitment after a decade of recovery in a tropical wet forest restoration experiment in southern Costa Rica. We asked (1) how do a range of restoration treatments (natural regeneration, applied nucleation, plantation), canopy cover, and life-history traits influence the STS and (2) how do seed and establishment limitation (lack of seed arrival or lack of seedling recruitment, respectively) influence vegetation recovery within restoration treatments as compared to remnant forest? We did not observe any differences in STS rates across restoration treatments. However, STS rates were lowest in adjacent later successional remnant forests, where seed source availability did not highly limit seed arrival, underscoring that niche-based processes may increasingly limit recruitment as succession unfolds. Additionally, larger-seeded species had consistently higher STS rates across treatments and remnant forests, though establishment limitation for these species was lowest in the remnant forests. Species were generally seed limited and almost all were establishment limited; these patterns were consistent across treatments. However, our results suggest that differences in recruitment rates could be driven by differential dispersal to treatments with higher canopy cover. We found evidence that barriers to recruitment shift during succession, with the influence of seed limitation, mediated by species-level seed deposition rates, giving way to nichebased processes. However, establishment limitation was lowest in the remnant forests for largeseeded and late successional species, highlighting the importance of habitat specialization and life-history traits in dictating recruitment dynamics. Overall, results demonstrate that active restoration approaches such as tree planting catalyze forest recovery, not only by decreasing components of seed limitation, but also by developing canopy cover that increases establishment rates of larger-seeded species.

Using Colombia as a case study, this analysis provides insights on deforestation dynamics in times of conflict and peace and the different factors driving these dynamics. We performed time series clustering of yearly deforestation data (2001–2018) from 708 out of 1,122 mainland Colombian municipalities (accounting for 98% of the total deforestation areas in Colombia) and produced regression models using a gradient tree boosting framework (XGBoost) to identify drivers that explain varying, local-level deforestation dynamics. Municipalities were characterized by seven categories of deforestation dynamics, with the Amazon region being largely represented by only four categories and the Andes region displaying all categories of deforestation dynamics. Notably, six of the seven representative categories exhibit substantial increases in deforestation in the years following the peace agreement. The regression analysis revealed that coca cultivation area, number of cattle, and municipality area are the top three drivers of deforestation dynamics at national, regional, and category levels. However, the importance of the different variables varied according to the different spatial dimensions. Results provide further understanding on how the drivers of deforestation change not only at a regional scale, as assumed by much of the current literature about drivers of deforestation, but also at a lower scale of analysis (intraregional and intradepartmental variation in the case of Colombia). Insights from this study can be used to understand deforestation dynamics in other countries experiencing times of conflict and peace and will support decision-makers in creating programs that align actions for peacebuilding, climate change mitigation, and biodiversity conservation more effectively.