What Peace Means for Deforestation: An Analysis of Local Deforestation Dynamics in Times of Conflict and Peace in Colombia

Abstract

Using Colombia as a case study, this analysis provides insights on deforestation dynamics in times of conflict and peace and the different factors driving these dynamics. We performed time series clustering of yearly deforestation data (2001–2018) from 708 out of 1,122 mainland Colombian municipalities (accounting for 98% of the total deforestation areas in Colombia) and produced regression models using a gradient tree boosting framework (XGBoost) to identify drivers that explain varying, local-level deforestation dynamics. Municipalities were characterized by seven categories of deforestation dynamics, with the Amazon region being largely represented by only four categories and the Andes region displaying all categories of deforestation dynamics. Notably, six of the seven representative categories exhibit substantial increases in deforestation in the years following the peace agreement. The regression analysis revealed that coca cultivation area, number of cattle, and municipality area are the top three drivers of deforestation dynamics at national, regional, and category levels. However, the importance of the different variables varied according to the different spatial dimensions. Results provide further understanding on how the drivers of deforestation change not only at a regional scale, as assumed by much of the current literature about drivers of deforestation, but also at a lower scale of analysis (intraregional and intradepartmental variation in the case of Colombia). Insights from this study can be used to understand deforestation dynamics in other countries experiencing times of conflict and peace and will support decision-makers in creating programs that align actions for peacebuilding, climate change mitigation, and biodiversity conservation more effectively.

Interacting municipal-level anthropogenic and ecological disturbances drive changes in Neotropical forest carbon storage

“…2013;Bautista-Cespedes et al, 2021). Accordingly, our results are in-line with other studies (e.g., González-González et al, 2021;Ganzenmüller et al, 2022) in that different variables drive deforestation differently across space and time. In terms of ecosystem service provision, Castro-Nunez et al (2017) investigated the spatial associations between carbon in woody biomass and conflict-related variables in Colombia's Amazon region and found an inverse relation between carbon and both armed actions and conflict victims in the Amazon region.…”

Long-term relationships of beef and dairy cattle and greenhouse gas emissions: Application of co-integrated panel models for Latin America

“…On the other hand, if the land used for forests is increased by 1 %, for example through afforestation efforts, the emissions from beef production decrease by 2.11 and 1.79 % for manure management and enteric fermentation, respectively. This shows that the cattle activity is strongly related to deforestation in the region, which is in line with the findings from other studies on the subject [ 6 , 37 , [95] , [96] , [97] , [98] ], and that adequate public policies or monitoring can contribute to reducing the emissions from deforestation related to cattle production, among other environmental benefits such as biodiversity conservation, for example through land-sparing [ [99] , [100] , [101] , [102] ] and sustainable intensification approaches [ 103 ].…”

One Tree at a Time: Restoring Landscape Connectivity through Silvopastoral Systems in Transformed Amazon Landscapes

“…This was likely a consequence of both, (i) the non-implementation of territorial management agreements in the peace agreement by the incoming government (period 2018-2022), and (ii) the illegal occupation of disenfranchised FARC dissidents (non-signatories of the peace agreements), lawless criminal bands and large-scale cattle ranchers with strong political connections, as well as newly engaged coca producers [39]. The observed socio-political restructuring and socio-ecological dynamics in the region have already been reported following the peace agreement signing [40,41].…”