Climate change can influence consumer populations both directly, by affecting survival and reproduction, and indirectly, by altering resources. However, little is known about the relative importance of direct and indirect effects, particularly for species important to ecosystem functioning, like pollinators. We used structural equation modelling to test the importance of direct and indirect (via floral resources) climate effects on the interannual abundance of three subalpine bumble bee species. In addition, we used long-term data to examine how climate and floral resources have changed over time. Over 8 years, bee abundances were driven primarily by the indirect effects of climate on the temporal distribution of floral resources. Over 43 years, aspects of floral phenology changed in ways that indicate species-specific effects on bees. Our study suggests that climate-driven alterations in floral resource phenology can play a critical role in governing bee population responses to global change.

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24Climate change has induced pronounced shifts in the reproductive phenology of plants, 25 with the timing of first flowering advancing in most species. Indeed, population persistence may 26 be threatened by the inability to track climate change phenologically. Nevertheless, substantial 27 variation exists in biological responses to climate change across taxa. Here, we explore the 28 consequences of climate change for flowering phenology by integrating data from a long-term 29 observational study and a manipulative experiment under contemporary conditions. Dissecting 30 the environmental factors that influence phenological change will illuminate why interspecific 31 variation exists in responses to climate change. We examine a 43-year record of first flowering 32 for six species in subalpine meadows of Colorado in conjunction with a 3-year snow 33 manipulation experiment on the perennial mustard Boechera stricta from the same site. We 34 analyze shifts in the onset of flowering in relation to environmental drivers known to influence 35 phenology: the timing of snowmelt, the accumulation of growing degree days, and photoperiod. 36At our study site, climate change is reducing snowpack and advancing the timing of spring 37 snowmelt. We found that variation in phenological responses to climate change depended on the 38 sequence in which species flowered, with early-flowering species flowering faster, at a lower 39 heat sum, and under increasingly disparate photoperiods in comparison to species that flower 40 later in the season. Furthermore, climate change is outpacing phenological change for all species. (which was not peer-reviewed) is the author/funder, who has granted bioRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.

Climate change has induced pronounced shifts in the reproductive phenology of plants, yet we know little about which environmental factors contribute to interspecific variation in responses and their effects on fitness. We integrate data from a 43 yr record of first flowering for six species in subalpine Colorado meadows with a 3 yr snow manipulation experiment on the perennial forb Boechera stricta (Brassicaceae) from the same site. We analyze shifts in the onset of flowering in relation to environmental drivers known to influence phenology: the timing of snowmelt, the accumulation of growing degree days, and photoperiod. Variation in responses to climate change depended on the sequence in which species flowered, with early-flowering species reproducing faster, at a lower heat sum, and under increasingly disparate photoperiods relative to later-flowering species. Early snow-removal treatments confirm that the timing of snowmelt governs observed trends in flowering phenology of B. stricta and that climate change can reduce the probability of flowering, thereby depressing fitness. Our findings suggest that climate change is decoupling historical combinations of photoperiod and temperature and outpacing phenological changes for our focal species. Accurate predictions of biological responses to climate change require a thorough understanding of the factors driving shifts in phenology.

Plant species can influence the pollination and reproductive success of coflowering neighbors that share pollinators. Because some individual pollinators habitually forage in particular areas, it is also possible that plant species could influence the pollination of neighbors that bloom later. When flowers of a preferred forage plant decline in an area, site-fidelity may cause individual flower feeders to stay in an area and switch plant species rather than search for preferred plants in a new location. A newly blooming plant species may quickly inherit a set of visitors from a prior plant species, and therefore experience higher pollination success than it would in an area where the first species never bloomed. To test this, we manipulated the placement and timing of two plant species, Delphinium barbeyi and later-blooming Gentiana parryi. We recorded the responses of individually marked bumble bee pollinators. About 63% of marked individuals returned repeatedly to the same areas to forage on Delphinium. When Delphinium was experimentally taken out of bloom, most of those site-faithful individuals (78%) stayed and switched to Gentiana. Consequently, Gentiana flowers received more visits in areas where Delphinium had previously flowered, compared to areas where Delphinium was still flowering or never occurred. Gentiana stigmas received more pollen in areas where Delphinium disappeared than where it never bloomed, indicating that Delphinium increases the pollination of Gentiana when they are separated in time. Overall, we show that individual bumble bees are often site-faithful, causing one plant species to increase the pollination of another even when separated in time, which is a novel mechanism of pollination facilitation.

The acute decline in global biodiversity includes not only the loss of rare species, but also the rapid collapse of common species across many different taxa. The loss of pollinating insects is of particular concern because of the ecological and economic values these species provide. The western bumble bee ( Bombus occidentalis ) was once common in western North America, but this species has become increasingly rare through much of its range. To understand potential mechanisms driving these declines, we used Bayesian occupancy models to investigate the effects of climate and land cover from 1998 to 2020, pesticide use from 2008 to 2014, and projected expected occupancy under three future scenarios. Using 14,457 surveys across 2.8 million km 2 in the western United States, we found strong negative relationships between increasing temperature and drought on occupancy and identified neonicotinoids as the pesticides of greatest negative influence across our study region. The mean predicted occupancy declined by 57% from 1998 to 2020, ranging from 15 to 83% declines across 16 ecoregions. Even under the most optimistic scenario, we found continued declines in nearly half of the ecoregions by the 2050s and mean declines of 93% under the most severe scenario across all ecoregions. This assessment underscores the tenuous future of B. occidentalis and demonstrates the scale of stressors likely contributing to rapid loss of related pollinator species throughout the globe. Scaled-up, international species-monitoring schemes and improved integration of data from formal surveys and community science will substantively improve the understanding of stressors and bumble bee population trends.

Climate change can influence the abundance of insect herbivores through direct and indirect mechanisms. In this study, we evaluated multitrophic drivers of herbivore abundance for an aphid species (Aphis helianthi) in a subalpine food web consisting of a host plant (Ligusticum porteri), mutualist ants and predatory lygus bugs (Lygus spp.). We used a model-selection approach to determine which climate and host plant cues best predict year-to-year variation in insect phenology and abundance observed over 6 years. We complemented this observational study with experiments that determined how elevated temperature interacts with (1) host plant phenology and (2) the ant-aphid mutualism to determine aphid abundance. We found date of snowmelt to be the best predictor of yearly abundance of aphid and lygus bug abundance but the direction of this effect differed. Aphids achieved lower abundances in early snowmelt years likely due to increased abundance of lygus bug predators in these years. Elevating temperature of L. porteri flowering stalks reduced their quality as hosts for aphid populations. However, warming aphid colonies on host plants of similar quality increased population growth rates. Importantly, this effect was apparent even in the absence of ants. While we observed fewer ants tending colonies at elevated temperatures, these colonies also had reduced numbers of lygus bug predators. This suggests that mutualism with ants becomes less significant as temperature increases, which contrasts other ant-hemipteran systems. Our observational and experimental results show the importance of multitrophic species interactions for predicting the effect of climate change on the abundances of herbivores.

Pollinator-mediated interactions between plant species depend on pollination quantity and purity, both of which can depend on spatial intermingling.