Interannual bumble bee abundance is driven by indirect climate effects on floral resource phenology

Ogilvie, Jane E.; Griffin, Sean R.; Gezon, Zachariah J.; Inouye, Brian D.; Underwood, Nora; Inouye, David W.; Irwin, Rebecca E.

doi:10.1111/ele.12854

Cited by 147 publications

(141 citation statements)

References 56 publications

(89 reference statements)

Supporting

Mentioning

137

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…From full phenological distributions one can derive phenological metrics based on dates of key events such as first flowers, peak flight activity, or hatching time as well as integrative descriptions including duration of non‐zero events, total events, or periods of resource scarcity (Ogilvie et al. ). Phenological distributions can be measured at a range of scales, from individuals to communities (e.g., Rathcke and Lacey , Stucky et al.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Phenology as a process rather than an event: from individual reaction norms to community metrics

Inouye

Ehrlén

Underwood

2019

Ecological Monographs

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Measures of the seasonal timing of biological events are key to addressing questions about how phenology evolves, modifies species interactions, and mediates biological responses to climate change. Phenology is often characterized in terms of discrete events, such as a date of first flowering or arrival of first migrants. We discuss how phenological events that are typically measured at the population or species level arise from distributions of phenological events across seasons, and from norms of reaction of these phenological events across environments. We argue that individual variation in phenological distributions and reaction norms has important implications for how we should collect, analyze, and interpret phenological information. Regarding phenology as a reaction norm rather than one year's specific values implies that selection acts on the phenologies that an individual expresses over its lifetime. To understand how climate change is likely to influence phenology, we need to consider not only plastic responses along the reaction norm but changes in the reaction norm itself. We show that when individuals vary in their reaction norms, correlations between reaction norm elevation and slope make first events particularly poor estimators of population sensitivity to climate change, and variation in slopes can obscure the pattern of selection on phenology. We also show that knowing the shape of the distribution of phenological events across the season is important for predicting biologically important phenological mismatches with climate change. Last, because phenological events are parts of a continuous developmental process, we suggest that the approach of measuring phenology by recording developmental stages of individuals in a population at a single point in time should be used more widely. We conclude that failure to account for phenological distributions and reaction norms may lead to overinterpretation of metrics based on single events, such as commonly recorded first event dates, and may confound meta‐analyses that use a range of metrics. Rather than prescribing a single universal approach to studying phenology, we point out limitations of inferences based on single metrics and encourage work that considers the multivariate nature of phenology and more tightly links data collection and analyses with biological hypotheses.

show abstract

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Phenology as a process rather than an event: from individual reaction norms to community metrics

Inouye

Ehrlén

Underwood

2019

Ecological Monographs

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…For instance, increased air temperatures can not only directly alter the number of prey and their predators but also indirectly facilitate predation or dampen predation risks by influencing both searching activities and handling time of prey (Sentis, Hemptinne, & Brodeur, ; Thakur, Künne, Griffin, & Eisenhauer, ). So far, few studies have measured the relative strengths of direct and indirect impacts of climate changes on trophic interactions (Antiqueira, Petchey, & Romero, ; Ogilvie et al, ) and especially among endotherm species. This knowledge gap is even more apparent when accounting for the fact that alteration of trophic interactions differs greatly according to the thermoregulatory capacity of animals (ectotherm predator and prey: Grigaltchik, Ward, & Seebacher, ; endotherm predator – ectotherm prey: Rodenhouse, ; ectotherm/endotherm predators and endotherm prey: Cox, Thompson, & Reidy, ; endotherm predator and prey: Creel, Creel, Creel, & Creel, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Direct and indirect effects of regional and local climatic factors on trophic interactions in the Arctic tundra

Juhasz

Shipley

Gauthier

et al. 2019

Journal of Animal Ecology

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Climate change can impact ecosystems by reshaping the dynamics of resource exploitation for predators and their prey. Alterations of these pathways could be especially intense in ecosystems characterized by a simple trophic structure and rapid warming trends, such as in the Arctic. However, quantifying the multiple direct and indirect pathways through which climate change is likely to alter trophic interactions and their relative strength remains a challenge. Here, we aim to identify direct and indirect causal mechanisms driven by climate affecting predator–prey interactions of species sharing a tundra food web. We based our study on relationships between one Arctic predator (Arctic fox) and its two main prey – lemmings (preferred prey) and snow geese (alternate prey) – which are exposed to variable local and regional climatic factors across years. We used a combination of models mapping multiple causal links among key variables derived from a long‐term dataset (21 years). We obtained several possible scenarios linking regional climate factors (Arctic oscillations) and local temperature and precipitation to the breeding of species. Our results suggest that both regional and local climate factors have direct and indirect impacts on the breeding of foxes and geese. Local climate showed a positive causal link with goose nesting success, while both regional and local climate displayed contrasted effects on the proportion of fox breeding. We found no impact of climate on lemming abundance. We observed positive relationships between lemming, fox and goose reproduction highlighting numerical and functional responses of fox to the variability of lemming abundance. Our study measures causal links and strength of interactions in a food web, quantifying both numerical response of a predator and apparent interactions between its two main prey. These results improve our understanding of the complex effects of climate on predator–prey interactions and our capacity to anticipate food web response to ongoing climate change.

show abstract

“…Understanding the consequences of warming is especially timely for insect pollinators, given the importance of pollination services in concert with their documented global declines (Biesmeijer, ; Burkle et al., ; Garibaldi et al., ; Ollerton, Winfree, & Tarrant, ). It has been difficult to study the effects of climate warming on insect pollinators because relatively few long‐term datasets exist that allow researchers to link pollinator ecology to changes in climate (Bartomeus et al., ; Burkle et al., ; Kudo & Ida, ; Ogilvie et al., ). The responses of some insect pollinators to warming have been investigated under simplified laboratory conditions (Bosch & Kemp, , ; Fründ, Zieger, & Tscharntke, ; Sgolastra et al., ) and others with short‐term observational studies (Forrest & Chisholm, ; Kudo, Nishiwaki, Kasagi, & Kosuge, ).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Experimental warming in the field delays phenology and reduces body mass, fat content and survival: Implications for the persistence of a pollinator under climate change

2018

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Climate change is rapidly altering thermal environments across the globe. The effects of increased temperatures in already warm environments may be particularly strong because organisms are likely to be near their thermal safety margins, with limited tolerance to additional heat stress. We conduct an in situ field experiment over 2 years to investigate the direct effects of temperature change on an early‐season solitary bee in a warm, arid region of the Southwestern USA. Our field experiment manipulates the thermal environment of Osmia ribifloris (Megachilidae) from larval development through adult emergence, simulating both previous cooler (c. 1950; nest boxes painted white) and future warmer (2040–2099; nest boxes painted black) climate conditions. In each year, we measure adult emergence phenology, linear body size, body mass, fat content and survival. Bees in the warming treatment exhibit delayed emergence phenology and a substantial increase in phenological variance. Increases in temperature also lead to reductions in body mass and fat content. Whereas bees in the cooling and control treatments experience negligible amounts of mortality, bees in the warming treatment experience 30%–75% mortality. Our findings indicate that temperature changes that have occurred since c. 1950 have likely had relatively weak and non‐negative effects, but predicted warmer temperatures create a high stress thermal environment for O. ribifloris. Later and more variable emergence dates under warming likely compromise phenological synchrony with floral resources and the ability of individuals to find mates. The consequences of phenological asynchrony, combined with reductions in body mass and fat content, will likely impose fitness reductions for surviving bees. Combined with high rates of mortality, our results suggest that O. ribifloris may face local extinction in the warmer parts of its range within the century under climate change. Temperature increases in already warm ecosystems can have substantial consequences for key components of life history, physiology and survival. Our study provides an important example of how the responses of ectothermic insects to temperature increases in already warm environments may be insufficient to mitigate the negative consequences of future climate change. A http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/1365-2435.13151/suppinfo is available for this article.

show abstract

Interannual bumble bee abundance is driven by indirect climate effects on floral resource phenology

Cited by 147 publications

References 56 publications

Phenology as a process rather than an event: from individual reaction norms to community metrics

Phenology as a process rather than an event: from individual reaction norms to community metrics

Direct and indirect effects of regional and local climatic factors on trophic interactions in the Arctic tundra

Experimental warming in the field delays phenology and reduces body mass, fat content and survival: Implications for the persistence of a pollinator under climate change

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About