Long-term health insurance contracts provide policyholders with the option of lapsing coverage or switching to another tariff within the same insurance company. We empirically analyze policyholder behavior regarding contract commitment in a large data set of German private health insurance contracts. We show that short-term as well as long-term premium development, along with premium adjustment frequency, affect lapse and tariff switch rates. Moreover, the sales channel has a strong impact on switching behavior, indicating that policyholder choice is not fully independent of sales representatives. Our results are important for risk assessment and risk management of portfolios of health insurance contracts and provide better understanding of the dynamics of policyholder behavior in health insurance.
This note proposes a practical way for modelling and projecting health insurance expenditures over short time horizons, based on observed historical data. The present study is motivated by a similar age structure generally observed for health insurance claim frequencies and yearly aggregate losses on the one hand and mortality on the other hand. As an application, the approach is illustrated for German historical inpatient costs provided by the Federal Financial Supervisory Authority. In particular, similarities and differences to mortality modelling are addressed.
Zusammenfassung
Serviceorientierte Architekturen ermöglichen flexible Steuerungsstrukturen. Allerdings steigt dadurch die Komplexität beim
Engineering der Komponenten des Steuerungsnetzwerks. Im Rahmen dieser Veröffentlichung wird aufgezeigt, dass eine
modellgetriebene Entwicklung kombiniert mit einer wiederverwendbaren, modular-aufgebauten Systemsoftware den Umgang mit
Komplexität beim Engineering vereinfachen kann.
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