No abstract

Species distribution models (SDMs) are widely used to predict the occurrence of species. Because SDMs generally use presence-only data, validation of the predicted distribution and assessing model accuracy is challenging. Model performance depends on both sample size and species' prevalence, being the fraction of the study area occupied by the species. Here, we present a novel method using simulated species to identify the minimum number of records required to generate accurate SDMs for taxa of different pre-defined prevalence classes. We quantified model performance as a function of sample size and prevalence and found model performance to increase with increasing sample size under constant prevalence, and to decrease with increasing prevalence under constant sample size. The area under the curve (AUC) is commonly used as a measure of model performance. However, when applied to presence-only data it is prevalence-dependent and hence not an accurate performance index. Testing the AUC of an SDM for significant deviation from random performance provides a good alternative. We assessed the minimum number of records required to obtain good model performance for species of different prevalence classes in a virtual study area and in a real African study area. The lower limit depends on the species' prevalence with absolute minimum sample sizes as low as 3 for narrow-ranged and 13 for widespread species for our virtual study area which represents an ideal, balanced, orthogonal world. The lower limit of 3, however, is flawed by statistical artefacts related to modelling species with a prevalence below 0.1. In our African study area lower limits are higher, ranging from 14 for narrow-ranged to 25 for widespread species. We advocate identifying the minimum sample size for any species distribution modelling by applying the novel method presented here, which is applicable to any taxonomic clade or group, study area or climate scenario.This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

The classification of the legume family proposed here addresses the long‐known non‐monophyly of the traditionally recognised subfamily Caesalpinioideae, by recognising six robustly supported monophyletic subfamilies. This new classification uses as its framework the most comprehensive phylogenetic analyses of legumes to date, based on plastid matK gene sequences, and including near‐complete sampling of genera (698 of the currently recognised 765 genera) and ca. 20% (3696) of known species. The matK gene region has been the most widely sequenced across the legumes, and in most legume lineages, this gene region is sufficiently variable to yield well‐supported clades. This analysis resolves the same major clades as in other phylogenies of whole plastid and nuclear gene sets (with much sparser taxon sampling). Our analysis improves upon previous studies that have used large phylogenies of the Leguminosae for addressing evolutionary questions, because it maximises generic sampling and provides a phylogenetic tree that is based on a fully curated set of sequences that are vouchered and taxonomically validated. The phylogenetic trees obtained and the underlying data are available to browse and download, facilitating subsequent analyses that require evolutionary trees. Here we propose a new community‐endorsed classification of the family that reflects the phylogenetic structure that is consistently resolved and recognises six subfamilies in Leguminosae: a recircumscribed Caesalpinioideae DC., Cercidoideae Legume Phylogeny Working Group (stat. nov.), Detarioideae Burmeist., Dialioideae Legume Phylogeny Working Group (stat. nov.), Duparquetioideae Legume Phylogeny Working Group (stat. nov.), and Papilionoideae DC. The traditionally recognised subfamily Mimosoideae is a distinct clade nested within the recircumscribed Caesalpinioideae and is referred to informally as the mimosoid clade pending a forthcoming formal tribal and/or clade‐based classification of the new Caesalpinioideae. We provide a key for subfamily identification, descriptions with diagnostic charactertistics for the subfamilies, figures illustrating their floral and fruit diversity, and lists of genera by subfamily. This new classification of Leguminosae represents a consensus view of the international legume systematics community; it invokes both compromise and practicality of use.

Unlocking the vast genomic diversity stored in natural history collections would create unprecedented opportunities for genome-scale evolutionary, phylogenetic, domestication and population genomic studies. Many researchers have been discouraged from using historical specimens in molecular studies because of both generally limited success of DNA extraction and the challenges associated with PCR-amplifying highly degraded DNA. In today's next-generation sequencing (NGS) world, opportunities and prospects for historical DNA have changed dramatically, as most NGS methods are actually designed for taking short fragmented DNA molecules as templates. Here we show that using a standard multiplex and paired-end Illumina sequencing approach, genome-scale sequence data can be generated reliably from dry-preserved plant, fungal and insect specimens collected up to 115 years ago, and with minimal destructive sampling. Using a reference-based assembly approach, we were able to produce the entire nuclear genome of a 43-year-old Arabidopsis thaliana (Brassicaceae) herbarium specimen with high and uniform sequence coverage. Nuclear genome sequences of three fungal specimens of 22–82 years of age (Agaricus bisporus, Laccaria bicolor, Pleurotus ostreatus) were generated with 81.4–97.9% exome coverage. Complete organellar genome sequences were assembled for all specimens. Using de novo assembly we retrieved between 16.2–71.0% of coding sequence regions, and hence remain somewhat cautious about prospects for de novo genome assembly from historical specimens. Non-target sequence contaminations were observed in 2 of our insect museum specimens. We anticipate that future museum genomics projects will perhaps not generate entire genome sequences in all cases (our specimens contained relatively small and low-complexity genomes), but at least generating vital comparative genomic data for testing (phylo)genetic, demographic and genetic hypotheses, that become increasingly more horizontal. Furthermore, NGS of historical DNA enables recovering crucial genetic information from old type specimens that to date have remained mostly unutilized and, thus, opens up a new frontier for taxonomic research as well.

A key feature of life’s diversity is that some species are common but many more are rare. Nonetheless, at global scales, we do not know what fraction of biodiversity consists of rare species. Here, we present the largest compilation of global plant diversity to quantify the fraction of Earth’s plant biodiversity that are rare. A large fraction, ~36.5% of Earth’s ~435,000 plant species, are exceedingly rare. Sampling biases and prominent models, such as neutral theory and the k-niche model, cannot account for the observed prevalence of rarity. Our results indicate that (i) climatically more stable regions have harbored rare species and hence a large fraction of Earth’s plant species via reduced extinction risk but that (ii) climate change and human land use are now disproportionately impacting rare species. Estimates of global species abundance distributions have important implications for risk assessments and conservation planning in this era of rapid global change.

(2017): Naturalized alien flora of the world: species diversity, taxonomic and phylogenetic patterns, geographic distribution and global hotspots of plant invasion. Using the recently built Global Naturalized Alien Flora (GloNAF) database, containing data on the distribution of naturalized alien plants in 483 mainland and 361 island regions of the world, we describe patterns in diversity and geographic distribution of naturalized and invasive plant species, taxonomic, phylogenetic and life-history structure of the global naturalized flora as well 204 Preslia 89: 203-274, 2017 as levels of naturalization and their determinants. The mainland regions with the highest numbers of naturalized aliens are some Australian states (with New South Wales being the richest on this continent) and several North American regions (of which California with 1753 naturalized plant species represents the world's richest region in terms of naturalized alien vascular plants). England, Japan, New Zealand and the Hawaiian archipelago harbour most naturalized plants among islands or island groups. These regions also form the main hotspots of the regional levels of naturalization, measured as the percentage of naturalized aliens in the total flora of the region. Such hotspots of relative naturalized species richness appear on both the western and eastern coasts of North America, in north-western Europe, South Africa, south-eastern Australia, New Zealand, and India. High levels of island invasions by naturalized plants are concentrated in the Pacific, but also occur on individual islands across all oceans. The numbers of naturalized species are closely correlated with those of native species, with a stronger correlation and steeper increase for islands than mainland regions, indicating a greater vulnerability of islands to invasion by species that become successfully naturalized. South Africa, India, California, Cuba, Florida, Queensland and Japan have the highest numbers of invasive species. Regions in temperate and tropical zonobiomes harbour in total 9036 and 6774 naturalized species, respectively, followed by 3280 species naturalized in the Mediterranean zonobiome, 3057 in the subtropical zonobiome and 321 in the Arctic. The New World is richer in naturalized alien plants, with 9905 species compared to 7923 recorded in the Old World. While isolation is the key factor driving the level of naturalization on islands, zonobiomes differing in climatic regimes, and socioeconomy represented by per capita GDP, are central for mainland regions. The 11 most widely distributed species each occur in regions covering about one third of the globe or more in terms of the number of regions where they are naturalized and at least 35% of the Earth's land surface in terms of those regions' areas, with the most widely distributed species Sonchus oleraceus occuring in 48% of the regions that cover 42% of the world area. Other widely distributed species are Ricinus communis, Oxalis corniculata, Portulaca oleracea, Eleusine indica, Chenopodium album, Cap...

This dataset provides the Global Naturalized Alien Flora (GloNAF) database, version 1.2. GloNAF represents a data compendium on the occurrence and identity of naturalized alien vascular plant taxa across geographic regions (e.g. countries, states, provinces, districts, islands) around the globe. The dataset includes 13,939 taxa and covers 1,029 regions (including 381 islands). The dataset is based on 210 data sources. For each taxon‐by‐region combination, we provide information on whether the taxon is considered to be naturalized in the specific region (i.e. has established self‐sustaining populations in the wild). Non‐native taxa are marked as “alien”, when it is not clear whether they are naturalized. To facilitate alignment with other plant databases, we provide for each taxon the name as given in the original data source and the standardized taxon and family names used by The Plant List Version 1.1 (http://www.theplantlist.org/). We provide an ESRI shapefile including polygons for each region and information on whether it is an island or a mainland region, the country and the Taxonomic Databases Working Group (TDWG) regions it is part of (TDWG levels 1–4). We also provide several variables that can be used to filter the data according to quality and completeness of alien taxon lists, which vary among the combinations of regions and data sources. A previous version of the GloNAF dataset (version 1.1) has already been used in several studies on, for example, historical spatial flows of taxa between continents and geographical patterns and determinants of naturalization across different taxonomic groups. We intend the updated and expanded GloNAF version presented here to be a global resource useful for studying plant invasions and changes in biodiversity from regional to global scales. We release these data into the public domain under a Creative Commons Zero license waiver (https://creativecommons.org/share-your-work/public-domain/cc0/). When you use the data in your publication, we request that you cite this data paper. If GloNAF is a major part of the data analyzed in your study, you should consider inviting the GloNAF core team (see Metadata S1: Originators in the Overall project description) as collaborators. If you plan to use the GloNAF dataset, we encourage you to contact the GloNAF core team to check whether there have been recent updates of the dataset, and whether similar analyses are already ongoing.

Tropical Africa is home to an astonishing biodiversity occurring in a variety of ecosystems. Past climatic change and geological events have impacted the evolution and diversification of this biodiversity. During the last two decades, around 90 dated molecular phylogenies of different clades across animals and plants have been published leading to an increased understanding of the diversification and speciation processes generating tropical African biodiversity. In parallel, extended geological and palaeoclimatic records together with detailed numerical simulations have refined our understanding of past geological and climatic changes in Africa. To date, these important advances have not been reviewed within a common framework. Here, we critically review and synthesize African climate, tectonics and terrestrial biodiversity evolution throughout the Cenozoic to the mid‐Pleistocene, drawing on recent advances in Earth and life sciences. We first review six major geo‐climatic periods defining tropical African biodiversity diversification by synthesizing 89 dated molecular phylogeny studies. Two major geo‐climatic factors impacting the diversification of the sub‐Saharan biota are highlighted. First, Africa underwent numerous climatic fluctuations at ancient and more recent timescales, with tectonic, greenhouse gas, and orbital forcing stimulating diversification. Second, increased aridification since the Late Eocene led to important extinction events, but also provided unique diversification opportunities shaping the current tropical African biodiversity landscape. We then review diversification studies of tropical terrestrial animal and plant clades and discuss three major models of speciation: (i) geographic speciation via vicariance (allopatry); (ii) ecological speciation impacted by climate and geological changes, and (iii) genomic speciation via genome duplication. Geographic speciation has been the most widely documented to date and is a common speciation model across tropical Africa. We conclude with four important challenges faced by tropical African biodiversity research: (i) to increase knowledge by gathering basic and fundamental biodiversity information; (ii) to improve modelling of African geophysical evolution throughout the Cenozoic via better constraints and downscaling approaches; (iii) to increase the precision of phylogenetic reconstruction and molecular dating of tropical African clades by using next generation sequencing approaches together with better fossil calibrations; (iv) finally, as done here, to integrate data better from Earth and life sciences by focusing on the interdisciplinary study of the evolution of tropical African biodiversity in a wider geodiversity context.