Selection of a suitable general circulation model (GCM) ensemble is crucial for effective water resource management and reliable climate studies in developing countries with constraint in human and computational resources. A careful selection of a GCM subset by excluding those with limited similarity to the observed climate from the existing pool of GCMs developed by different modeling centers at various resolutions can ease the task and minimize uncertainties. In this study, a feature selection method known as symmetrical uncertainty (SU) was employed to assess the performance of 26 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) GCM outputs under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. The selection was made according to their capability to simulate observed daily precipitation (prcp), maximum and minimum temperature (Tmax and Tmin) over the historical period 1980-2005 in the Niger Delta region, which is highly vulnerable to extreme climate events. The ensemble of the four top-ranked GCMs, namely ACCESS1.3, MIROC-ESM, MIROC-ESM-CHM, and NorESM1-M, were selected for the spatio-temporal projection of prcp, Tmax, and Tmin over the study area. Results from the chosen ensemble predicted an increase in the mean annual prcp between the range of 0.26% to 3.57% under RCP4.5, and 0.7% to 4.94% under RCP 8.5 by the end of the century when compared to the base period. The study also revealed an increase in Tmax in the range of 0 to 0.4 • C under RCP4.5 and 1.25-1.79 • C under RCP8.5 during the periods 2070-2099. Tmin also revealed a significant increase of 0 to 0.52 • C under RCP4.5 and between 1.38-2.02 • C under RCP8.5, which shows that extreme events might threaten the Niger Delta due to climate change. Water resource managers in the region can use these findings for effective water resource planning, management, and adaptation measures.
Despite the increasing interest in climate change and water security, research linking climate change and groundwater quality is still at an early stage. This study explores the seasonal effect of the change in biogeochemical process for the redox-sensitive ions and metals Fe2+, Mn2+, SO42−, and NO3− to assess the groundwater quality of the shallow coastal aquifer of Eastern Dahomey Basin in southwestern Nigeria. Field physicochemical measurement of EC, pH TDS, Eh, salinity, temperature, and the static water level (SWL) was carried out on 250 shallow wells; 230 water samples were collected for analysis between June 2017 and April 2018. A spatial distribution map of these ions and metals showed an increasing concentration in the dry season water samples compared to those of the wet season. This higher concentration could be attributed to change in the intensity of hydrochemical processes such as evaporation, redox, and mineral precipitation. Results of linear regression modelling established significant relationships between SWL, SO42−, NO3−, Fe, and Eh for both wet and dry seasons with the p-value falling between 75% and 95%, which can also be seen in the plots of Eh/ORP against Fe2+, Mn2+, SO42−, and NO3−. These results revealed the influence of the redox process for both seasons, while also having a higher impact in the dry season while variation of concentration revealed decrease with increase in depth, which could be attributed to a decrease in well hydraulic properties and aeration. An Eh-pH geochemical diagram revealed NO3− as the controlling biogeochemical process over Fe in most of the sample wells. Concentrations of NO3−, Fe, and Mn are above the World Health Organization’s (WHO) standard for drinking water in most water samples. This study has established the link between climate change and groundwater quality in shallow coastal aquifers and suggested the need for strategic groundwater management policy and planning to ameliorate groundwater quality deterioration.
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