Strategies for environmental sustainability and global food security must account for dietary change. Using a biophysical simulation model we calculated human carrying capacity under ten diet scenarios. The scenarios included two reference diets based on actual consumption and eight "Healthy Diet" scenarios that complied with nutritional recommendations but varied in the level of meat content. We considered the U.S. agricultural land base and accounted for losses, processing conversions, livestock feed needs, suitability of land for crops or grazing, and land productivity. Annual per capita land requirements ranged from 0.13 to 1.08 ha person -1 year -1 across the ten diet scenarios. Carrying capacity varied from 402 to 807 million persons; 1.3 to 2.6 times the 2010 U.S. population. Carrying capacity was generally higher for scenarios with less meat and highest for the lacto-vegetarian diet. However, the carrying capacity of the vegan diet was lower than two of the healthy omnivore diet scenarios. Sensitivity analysis showed that carrying capacity estimates were highly influenced by starting assumptions about the proportion of cropland available for cultivated cropping. Population level dietary change can contribute substantially to meeting future food needs, though ongoing agricultural research and sustainable management practices are still needed to assure sufficient production levels.
Opportunities for alternative swine production and marketing are emerging across the value chain. Given the developing nature of the differentiated pork industry, measurements of niche performance and success are not yet fully known. For this reason, the objectives of this study were to determine performance metrics across all major life phases for niche pork production and compare such metrics with national averages of conventional commodity pork production. Additionally, this study aimed to quantify producers’ reasoning and barriers to successfully raising niche swine. Niche meat producers in the USA self-identified for this study (n = 176); their swine production had alternative characteristics that included small- to mid-sized farms, farrow-to-finish operations, heritage breeds, housing with bedding and outdoor or pasture access, no use of antibiotics (sub-therapeutic for growth promotion or no antibiotics ever), vegetarian feed, diverse agricultural enterprises and alternative marketing avenues. This study focused on the metric categories regarding reproduction, mortality, culling and growth characteristics. The niche system produced approximately 15% fewer weaned piglets per bred sow per year than the conventional system due to fewer breeding cycles, smaller litters and higher piglet mortality in alternative production. Similarly, niche production finished 12% fewer hogs per bred sow per year than conventional production. Regarding age benchmarks of finishing and breeding, the niche system averaged 18 additional days to finish hogs at a standardized market weight of 124 kg. Likewise, niche production gilts were first bred at 283 days, whereas conventional production breeds gilts at 225 days. All directly comparable metrics were found to be statistically significant with 95% confidence for the one-sample test of means. Regarding farmer attitudes toward niche pork, survey participants shared personal reasons for raising swine and barriers to successful niche production. Choosing niche over commodity swine, participants’ reasons were grouped into three intra-related categories: (1) farm and producer viability, (2) animal and environmental welfare, and (3) consumer preference and taste. Despite these benefits, participants were faced with numerous challenges, which were organized into four intra-related categories: (1) alternative production requirements, restrictions and knowledge; (2) access and affordability of credit and inputs; (3) alternative supply chain for processing, marketing and customers; and (4) non-niche production competition and governmental policies. In sum, the success of these niche pork operations equates to high welfare for the pigs, economic viability for the operation, personal enjoyment for the farmer, customer satisfaction with meat flavor and quality, and responsible environmental practices, inclusive of many components of an alternative food system.
. Engaging stakeholders to refine models of state-level food self-reliance. Journal of Agriculture, Food Systems, and Community Development, 6(4), 55-69. http://dx.doi.org/10.5304/jafscd.2016.064.003 Copyright © 2016 by New Leaf Associates, Inc. AbstractSelf-reliance measures the capacity of a geographic area to produce the food needed by its population. While the importance of food self-reliance, at even the national scale, is debated, the concept remains useful for evaluating the capacity of local and regional food systems to meet current and future human food needs. Modeling can estimate the capacity of geographic areas to supply food to their own population, but such approaches may be mere academic exercises if not perceived as credible and useful to stakeholders. This paper reports on an effort to engage stakeholders in refining a model. Small groups of stakeholders were gathered in oneday workshops in four states to learn and provide feedback about two ways of modeling food systems: a simulation model of dietary land requirements and human carrying capacity (foodprint), and a spatial-optimization model of the potential for population centers to meet food needs locally (foodshed). Workshop participants engaged in small-and large-group discussions to critically assess the value of the models for food system planning and policy. Formal evaluation gauged the utility of the workshops as learning environments and the participants' opinions of the models as food system planning tools. Results indicate that the workshops successfully taught participants about the models and elicited feedback on the relevance of the models to food systems planning. However, assuring relevance and application of food system models in local and state planning will require a deeper level of engagement and a greater time commitment from both researchers and stakeholders than a one-day workshop can accomplish.
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