We investigate the relationship between violence and economic risk preferences in Afghanistan combining: (i) a two-part experimental procedure identifying risk preferences, violations of Expected Utility, and specific preferences for certainty; (ii) controlled recollection of fear based on established methods from psychology; and (iii) administrative violence data from precisely geocoded military records. We document a specific preference for certainty in violation of Expected Utility. The preference for certainty, which we term a Certainty Premium, is exacerbated by the combination of violent exposure and controlled fearful recollections. The results have implications for risk taking and are potentially actionable for policymakers and marketers. (JEL A12, C91, D12, D74, D81, O12, O17)

No abstract

No abstract

Many governments are not responsive to their citizens. Fair elections provide an important means of improving responsiveness by making elected officials accountable to voters.1 However, election fraud undermines this critical function in many young democracies, often at the hands of tightly networked groups of political elites. This paper examines whether candidates exploit connections to elections officials to add fraudulent votes during the aggregation process. We study this problem in 1 There is substantial empirical documentation of the benefits of improving political accountability (Besley and Burgess

Competitive elections are essential to establishing the political legitimacy of democratizing regimes. We argue that insurgents undermine the state’s mandate through electoral violence. We study insurgent violence during elections using newly declassified microdata on the conflict in Afghanistan. Our data track insurgent activity by hour to within meters of attack locations. Our results suggest that insurgents carefully calibrate their production of violence during elections to avoid harming civilians. Leveraging a novel instrumental variables approach, we find that violence depresses voting. Collectively, the results suggest insurgents try to depress turnout while avoiding backlash from harming civilians. Counterfactual exercises provide potentially actionable insights for safeguarding at-risk elections and enhancing electoral legitimacy in emerging democracies. (JEL D72, D74, O17)

A variety of C17 amide-substituted 6-azaandrost-4-en-3-ones were prepared and tested versus human type 1 and 2 steroid 5 alpha-reductase (5AR) and human adrenal 3 beta-hydroxy-delta 5-steroid dehydrogenase/3-keto-delta 5-steroid isomerase (3BHSD) in order to optimize potency versus both isozymes of 5AR and selectivity versus 3BHSD. Two series of potent and selective C17 amides were discovered, 2,5-disubstituted anilides and (arylcycloalkyl)amides. Compounds from each series with picomolar IC50's versus human type 2 5AR and low nanomolar to picomolar IC50's versus human type 1 5AR possessing 100-500-fold selectivity versus 3BHSD were identified. A conformational model to predict 3BHSD potency was developed which could rationalize 3BHSD potency within three different series of compounds. Evaluation of some optimal compounds from this series in a chronic castrated rat model of 5AR inhibitor induced prostate involution, and pharmacokinetic measurements identified compounds (9, 12, 16, and 29) with good in vivo efficacy and half-life in the dog. An intact rat model of in vivo selectivity for 5AR versus 3BHSD inhibition was also developed. Dual inhibitors of both human 5AR's may show advantages over type 2 selective 5AR inhibitors, such as finasteride (1), in the treatment of disease states which depend upon dihydrotestosterone.

No abstract

No abstract