SummaryBackgroundThe Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context.MethodsWe used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors—the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI).FindingsBetween 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6–58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8–42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DA...

Summary Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and t...

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SummaryBackgroundNational levels of personal health-care access and quality can be approximated by measuring mortality rates from causes that should not be fatal in the presence of effective medical care (ie, amenable mortality). Previous analyses of mortality amenable to health care only focused on high-income countries and faced several methodological challenges. In the present analysis, we use the highly standardised cause of death and risk factor estimates generated through the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) to improve and expand the quantification of personal health-care access and quality for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2015.MethodsWe mapped the most widely used list of causes amenable to personal health care developed by Nolte and McKee to 32 GBD causes. We accounted for variations in cause of death certification and misclassifications through the extensive data standardisation processes and redistribution algorithms developed for GBD. To isolate the effects of personal health-care access and quality, we risk-standardised cause-specific mortality rates for each geography-year by removing the joint effects of local environmental and behavioural risks, and adding back the global levels of risk exposure as estimated for GBD 2015. We employed principal component analysis to create a single, interpretable summary measure–the Healthcare Quality and Access (HAQ) Index–on a scale of 0 to 100. The HAQ Index showed strong convergence validity as compared with other health-system indicators, including health expenditure per capita (r=0·88), an index of 11 universal health coverage interventions (r=0·83), and human resources for health per 1000 (r=0·77). We used free disposal hull analysis with bootstrapping to produce a frontier based on the relationship between the HAQ Index and the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a measure of overall development consisting of income per capita, average years of education, and total fertility rates. This frontier allowed us to better quantify the maximum levels of personal health-care access and quality achieved across the development spectrum, and pinpoint geographies where gaps between observed and potential levels have narrowed or widened over time.FindingsBetween 1990 and 2015, nearly all countries and territories saw their HAQ Index values improve; nonetheless, the difference between the highest and lowest observed HAQ Index was larger in 2015 than in 1990, ranging from 28·6 to 94·6. Of 195 geographies, 167 had statistically significant increases in HAQ Index levels since 1990, with South Korea, Turkey, Peru, China, and the Maldives recording among the largest gains by 2015. Performance on the HAQ Index and individual causes showed distinct patterns by region and level of development, yet substantial heterogeneities emerged for several causes, including cancers in highest-SDI countries; chronic kidney disease, diabetes, diarrhoeal diseases, and lower respiratory infections among middle-SDI countries; and measles and tetanus among...

Background Left ventricular noncompaction (LVNC) is a distinct form of cardiomyopathy characterized by hypertrabeculation of the left ventricle. The LVNC phenotype may occur in isolation or with other cardiomyopathy phenotypes. Prognosis is incompletely characterized in children. Methods and Results Using diagnoses from the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute-funded Pediatric Cardiomyopathy Registry from 1990-2008, 155 of 3219 children (4.8%) had LVNC. Each LVNC patient was also classified as having an associated echocardiographically diagnosed cardiomyopathy phenotype (dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM), hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM), restrictive cardiomyopathy (RCM), isolated, or indeterminate). The time to death or transplant differed among the phenotypic groups (P = 0.035). Time to listing for cardiac transplantation significantly differed by phenotype (P < 0.001), as did time to transplantation (P = 0.015). The hazard ratio for death/transplant (with isolated LVNC as the reference group) was 4.26 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.78 to 23.3) for HCM, 6.35 (95% CI, 1.52 to 26.6) for DCM, and 5.66 (95% CI, 1.04 to 30.9) for the indeterminate phenotype. Most events occurred in the first year after diagnosis. Conclusion LVNC is present in at least 5% of children with cardiomyopathy. The specific LVNC-associated cardiomyopathy phenotype predicts the risk of death/transplant and should inform clinical management.

temic expansion of ST2 + Tregs (29,30). IL-33 expressed by fibrogenic/adipogenic progenitors in skeletal muscle has also been shown to regulate skeletal muscle Treg homeostasis and support muscle regeneration (31). Related studies have suggested a direct, cardioprotective role for rIL-33 against hypertrophy resulting from cardiac overload (32) and fibrosis after myocardial infarction (33). However, delivery of rIL-33 also aggravates autoimmune eosinophilic pericarditis during coxsackievirus B3 infection (34), suggesting that IL-33 can contribute to cardiac inflammation. IL-33 expression has been reported in cardiac fibroblasts (32) and the vasculature ( 35), yet how the expression of this alarmin is modulated in cardiac allografts or impacts outcomes was unknown.Using IL-33-deficient heart grafts in a mouse chronic rejection model we have established that IL-33 stands out among identified alarmins and limits differentiation of proinflammatory macrophages to prevent chronic rejection. Specifically, transplants lacking IL-33 displayed dramatically accelerated chronic rejectionassociated vasculopathy and subsequent fibrosis orchestrated by graft-infiltrating recipient proinflammatory macrophages. IL-33expressing heart grafts in recipients with ST2-deficient macrophages also displayed increased graft infiltration by proinflammatory macrophages and accelerated graft loss. Mechanistic studies demonstrated that IL-33 promoted a reparative macrophage phenotype through a metabolic reprograming involving augmented oxidative phosphorylation (OXPHOS) and fatty acid (FA) uptake. We also revealed that IL-33 prevents proinflammatory stimuli-induced disruption of the tricarboxylic acid (TCA) cycle that shifts macrophage metabolism to anaerobic glycolysis and generates proinflammatory metabolites (36,37). Restoration of IL-33 to IL-33-deficient heart transplants using vesicles in ECM-derived hydrogel immediately after transplantation profoundly reduced the frequency of proinflammatory myeloid cells in the graft and prevented graft loss to chronic rejection. Thus, the local delivery of IL-33 in ECM-based materials after transplantation may be a practical and promising biologic for chronic rejection prophylaxis.

Limited investigations have been conducted on syndemics and HIV continuum of care outcomes. Using baseline data from a multi-site, randomized controlled study of HIV-positive injection drug users (n=1052), we examined whether psychosocial factors co-occurred, and whether these factors were additively associated with behavioral and HIV continuum of care outcomes. Experiencing one type of psychosocial problem was significantly (p<0.05) associated with an increased odds of experiencing another type of problem. Persons with 3 or more psychosocial problems were significantly more likely to report sexual and injection risk behaviors and were less likely to be adherent to HIV medications. Persons with 4 or more problems were less likely to be virally suppressed. Reporting any problems was associated with not currently taking HIV medications. Our findings highlight the association of syndemics not only with risk behaviors, but also with outcomes related to the continuum of care for HIV-positive persons.

Background Studies of children with dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) have suggested that improved survival has been primarily due to utilization of heart transplantation. Objectives We determined transplant-free survival for these children over 20 years and sought to identify the clinical characteristics at diagnosis that predicted death. Methods Children less than 18 years old with some type of DCM enrolled in the Pediatric Cardiomyopathy Registry were divided by year of diagnosis into an early cohort (1990–1999) and a late cohort (2000–2009). Competing risks and multivariable modeling were used to estimate the cumulative incidence of death, transplant, and echocardiographic normalization by cohort and to identify the factors associated with death. Results Of 1953 children, 1199 were in the early cohort and 754 were in the late cohort. Most children in both cohorts had idiopathic DCM (64% vs. 63%, respectively). Median age (1.6 vs. 1.7 years), left ventricular (LV) end diastolic z-scores (+4.2 vs. +4.2) and LV fractional shortening (16% vs. 17%) at diagnosis were similar between cohorts. Although the rates of echocardiographic normalization (30% and 27%) and heart transplantation (24% and 24%) were similar, the death rate was higher in the early cohort than in the late cohort (18% vs. 9%; p = 0.04). Being in the early cohort (hazard ratio [HR], 1.4; 95% CI, 1.04–1.9; p = 0.03) independently predicted death. Conclusions Children with DCM have improved survival in the more recent era. This appears to be associated with factors other than heart transplantation, which was equally prevalent in both eras.