No abstract

Climate change, Downscaling, General circulation model, Greenhouse gas emission scenarios, Northeast United States,

To provide a basis for regional hydroclimatic forecasting, New England (NE) precipitation and streamflow are compared with indices for the El Niño/Southern Oscillation, the Pacific North American (PNA) pattern, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Significant positive correlations are found between the NAO index and monthly streamflow at western inland locations, with the strongest seasonal correlations occurring in winter. Smoothed records for the winter NAO and winter streamflow are highly correlated at some sites, suggesting that interrelationships are most significant in the low frequency spectrum. However, correlations between the NAO and precipitation are not significant, so further examination of other factors is needed to explain the relationship between the NAO and streamflow. NAO related regional air temperature, sea surface temperature (SST), storm tracking, and snowfall variability are possible mechanisms for the observed teleconnection. Exceptionally cool regional air temperatures, and SSTs, and unique regional storm track patterns characterized NE's climate during the famous 1960s drought, suggesting that concurrent (persistent) negative NAO conditions may have contributed to the severity of that event. Monthly and winter averaged regional streamflow variability are also significantly correlated with the PNA index. This, along with results from previous studies, suggests that tropospheric wave character and associated North Pacific SST anomalies are also related to NE regional drought conditions.

Using monthly gridded 500-hPa data, two synoptic indices are defined to better understand the principle mechanisms controlling intraseasonal to multiannual winter climate variability in New England (NE). The ''trough axis index'' (TAI) is created to quantify the mean longitudinal position of the common East Coast pressure trough, and the ''trough intensity index'' (TII) is calculated to estimate the relative amplitude of this trough at 42.5ЊN. The TAI and TII are then compared with records for NE regional winter precipitation, temperature, and snowfall with the goal of understanding physical mechanisms linking NE winter climate with regional sea surface temperatures (SST), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Pacific-North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern. The TAI correlates most significantly with winter precipitation at inland sites, such that a western (eastern) trough axis position is associated with greater (lower) average monthly precipitation. Also, significant correlations between the TAI and both NE regional SSTs and the NAO suggest that longitudinal shifting of the trough is one possible mechanism linking the North Atlantic with NE regional winter climate variability. The NE winter temperature is significantly correlated with the TII, regional SSTs, and the NAO. While the PNA also correlates with the TII, NE winter climate variables are apparently unrelated to the PNA index.