Past and future changes in climate and hydrological indicators in the US Northeast

Hayhoe, Katharine; Wake, Cameron P.; Huntington, Thomas G.; Liu, Luo; Schwartz, Mark D.; Sheffield, Justin; Wood, Eric F.; Anderson, Bruce T.; Bradbury, James A.; DeGaetano, Art; Troy, Tara J.; Wolfe, David W.

doi:10.1007/s00382-006-0187-8

Cited by 735 publications

(824 citation statements)

References 73 publications

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“…For instance, temperature and evaporation are expected to increase in the north-eastern United States, where this study was conducted, and instances of heavy precipitation are also on the rise (Hayhoe et al 2007). Seed release and dispersal models can be used to evaluate how plant migration may change due to future climate regimes, and to better evaluate the ecological and economic risks of invasive species spread as well as the extinction risk to native species that may not be able to keep pace with niche contraction and expansion (Thomas et al 2004).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Water loss from flower heads predicts seed release in two invasive thistles

Marchetto

Jongejans

Shea

et al. 2012

Plant Ecology & Diversity

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Background: Non-random seed release caused by plant responses to weather conditions is important for seed dispersal. Much is known about the effects of wind speed and turbulence, but our understanding of the effects of water loss on seed release is either qualitative, or indirect and phenomenological. Aims: To quantify the empirical relationship between water loss and seed release. Methods: Capitula of the invasive thistles Carduus acanthoides and C. nutans were collected from the field and treated for either 0, 1, or 2 days in the laboratory at three different vapour pressure deficit levels (3.4, 9.5, and 17.0 hPa) to cause a range of water loss values. Total seed release was quantified before and during wind tunnel trials. Results: Water loss was the only significant predictor of whether or not capitula released any seeds. The number of seeds released was predicted by water loss, capitulum diameter, and herbivore damage, with the same amount of water loss having less effect on larger capitula. Conclusions: These results represent an important step towards using weather data to predict seed release for many xerochastic species. Incorporating the effects of water loss on seed release into mechanistic seed dispersal models will greatly improve predictions of when and how far seeds disperse. While initiation of dispersal in some species is more likely during precipitation events (Pufal and Garnock-Jones 2010), a majority of wind dispersed angiosperms and gymnosperms are xerochastic, meaning that drying enhances seed abscission and release (Greene et al. 2008). For many Asteraceae species, including the invasive thistles Carduus nutans L. and Carduus acanthoides L. (Figure 1), drying causes cohesion tissues located on the outer side of the involucral bracts to lose turgidity and buckle, causing the bracts to be lowered away from the seeds and thus exposing seeds to the wind (Fahn 1990). Drying may also cause contraction of the receptacle away from seeds (Smith and Kok 1984).The ubiquity of xerochastic plant species suggests that seed dispersal models could be made more realistic and accurate for a wide range of species if weather data describing potential evaporation could be used to mechanistically predict seed release. Two important pieces of information need to be re-examined to accomplish this goal. First, we must predict water loss from inflorescences using weather data. A number of models already exist that use weather data to predict water loss from entire plants (de Bruin and Holtslag 1982;Sumner and Jacobs 2005), and even from capitula separately from vegetative structures (Guilioni and Lhomme 2006). The second necessary piece of information, the relationship between water loss and seed release, must still be documented and is the focus of this paper.Currently, our understanding of the effects of water loss and weather on seed release is either qualitative or phenomenological. Physiologically, we understand what effects dry conditions have on capitula (Smith and Kok 1984;Fahn 1990) and seed attachm...

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Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Water loss from flower heads predicts seed release in two invasive thistles

Marchetto

Jongejans

Shea

et al. 2012

Plant Ecology & Diversity

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“…Atmospheric processes are simulated at a grid resolution of 3.75 by 2.5°. The ability of the model to simulate regional atmospheric dynamics and surface climate patterns over the NE has been evaluated, with projections for NE temperature and precipitation presented in Hayhoe et al (2007). We selected results from HadCM3 simulations, among several AOGCM options, for presentation here because its climate sensitivity -a metric that captures the magnitude of the model-simulated increase in global temperature in response to a doubling of atmospheric CO 2 concentration -is 3.3°C, encompassing the middle part of the IPCC range of 1.5-4.5°C.…”

Section: Climate Modelingmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Recent warming (Wake 2005) and projected continued warming (Hayhoe et al 2007) will have a significant impact on plants in natural and managed ecosystems. An advance in spring bloom date for several plant species in the NE has already been documented Primack et al 2004), and projections of spring bloom utilizing a lilac (Syringa spp.…”

Section: Temperaturementioning

confidence: 99%

“…)/honeysuckle (Lonicera spp.) Spring Index model indicate the advance in spring bloom dates is likely to continue during the coming decades (Hayhoe et al 2007). …”

Section: Temperaturementioning

confidence: 99%

“…An extended frost-free period as projected for the NE (Hayhoe et al 2007;Frumhoff et al 2006) will tend to benefit those attempting to produce crops requiring a relatively long growing season such as watermelon (Citrullus lanatus), tomatoes, peppers (Capsicum annuum), peaches (Prunus persica), and European red wine grape (V. vinifera) varieties. However, as discussed below, climate projections for the region also indicate an increase in summer heat stress, drought, and weed and pest pressure, which can have negative consequences for warm temperature-adapted crops as well as crops adapted to the historically cool climate of the region.…”

Section: Temperaturementioning

confidence: 99%

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Projected change in climate thresholds in the Northeastern U.S.: implications for crops, pests, livestock, and farmers

Wolfe

Ziska

Petzoldt

et al. 2007

Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change

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110

100

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Most prior climate change assessments for U.S. agriculture have focused on major world food crops such as wheat and maize. While useful from a national and global perspective, these results are not particularly relevant to the Northeastern U.S. agriculture economy, which is dominated by dairy milk production, and high-value horticultural crops such as apples (Malus domestica), grapes (Vitis vinifera), sweet corn (Zea mays var. rugosa), cabbage (Brassica oleracea var. capitata), and maple syrup (sugar maple, Acer saccharum). We used statistically downscaled climate projections generated by the HadCM3 atmosphere-ocean general circulation model, run with Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change future emissions scenarios A1fi (higher) and B1 (lower), to evaluate several climate thresholds of direct relevance to agriculture in the region. A longer (frostfree) growing season could create new opportunities for farmers with enough capital to take risks on new crops (assuming a market for new crops can be developed). However, our results indicate that many crops will have yield losses associated with increased frequency of high temperature stress, inadequate winter chill period for optimum fruiting in spring, increased pressure from marginally over-wintering and/or invasive weeds, insects, or disease, or other factors. Weeds are likely to benefit more than cash crops from increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide. Projections of thermal heat index values for dairy cows Mitig Adapt Strat Glob Change (2008) indicate a substantial potential negative impact on milk production. At the higher compared to lower emissions scenario, negative climate change effects will occur sooner, and impact a larger geographic area within the region. Farmer adaptations to climate change will not be cost-or risk-free, and the impact on individual farm families and rural communities will depend on commodity produced, available capital, and timely, accurate climate projections.

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Toward a quantitative and empirical dissolved organic carbon budget for the Gulf of Maine, a semienclosed shelf sea

Balch

Huntington

Aiken

et al. 2016

Global Biogeochemical Cycles

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A time series of organic carbon export from Gulf of Maine (GoM) watersheds was compared to a time series of biological, chemical, bio-optical, and hydrographic properties, measured across the GoM between Yarmouth, NS, Canada, and Portland, ME, U.S. Optical proxies were used to quantify the dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and particulate organic carbon in the GoM. The Load Estimator regression model applied to river discharge data demonstrated that riverine DOC export (and its decadal variance) has increased over the last 80 years. Several extraordinarily wet years (2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010) resulted in a massive pulse of chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM; proxy for DOC) into the western GoM along with unidentified optically scattering material (<0.2 μm diameter). A survey of DOC in the GoM and Scotian Shelf showed the strong influence of the Gulf of Saint Lawrence on the DOC that enters the GoM. A deep plume of CDOM-rich water was observed near the coast of Maine which decreased in concentration eastward. The Forel-Ule color scale was derived and compared to the same measurements made in 1912-1913 by Henry Bigelow. Results show that the GoM has yellowed in the last century, particularly in the region of the extension of the Eastern Maine Coastal Current. Time lags between DOC discharge and its appearance in the GoM increased with distance from the river mouths. Algae were also a significant source of DOC but not CDOM. Gulf-wide algal primary production has decreased. Increases in precipitation and DOC discharge to the GoM are predicted over the next century.

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Past and future changes in climate and hydrological indicators in the US Northeast

Cited by 735 publications

References 73 publications

Water loss from flower heads predicts seed release in two invasive thistles

Water loss from flower heads predicts seed release in two invasive thistles

Projected change in climate thresholds in the Northeastern U.S.: implications for crops, pests, livestock, and farmers

Toward a quantitative and empirical dissolved organic carbon budget for the Gulf of Maine, a semienclosed shelf sea

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