It is predicted that climate change will cause species extinctions and distributional shifts in coming decades, but data to validate these predictions are relatively scarce. Here, we compare recent and historical surveys for 48 Mexican lizard species at 200 sites. Since 1975, 12% of local populations have gone extinct. We verified physiological models of extinction risk with observed local extinctions and extended projections worldwide. Since 1975, we estimate that 4% of local populations have gone extinct worldwide, but by 2080 local extinctions are projected to reach 39% worldwide, and species extinctions may reach 20%. Global extinction projections were validated with local extinctions observed from 1975 to 2009 for regional biotas on four other continents, suggesting that lizards have already crossed a threshold for extinctions caused by climate change.
The literature about species concepts might be larger than that about any other subject in evolutionary biology, but the issue of empirically testing species boundaries has been given little attention relative to seemingly endless debates over what species are. The practical issue of delimiting species boundaries is nevertheless of central importance to many areas of evolutionary biology. The number of recently described methods for delimiting species suggests renewed interest in the topic, and some methods are explicitly quantitative. Here, we review nine of these methods by summarizing the relevant biological properties of species amenable to empirical evaluation, the classes of data required and some of the strengths and limitations of each.Systematic biology rests on an extensive literature about the theory and methodology of phylogenetic inference and the theory of species concepts [1-3], but on a relatively small literature about the methods of delimiting species [4]. This state of affairs is rather odd given that two frequently stated empirical goals of systematic biology are to: (1) discover MONOPHYLETIC (see Glossary) groups at higher levels; and (2) discover lineages (i.e. species [5]) at lower levels [6]. Interest in delimiting species and inferring speciation patterns and mechanisms was high during the mid-20th century era of the 'New Systematics' [7], after which activity declined [4], but there are now signs of a Renaissance, and some novel methods have recently been proposed for testing species boundaries in a statistically rigorous framework [8][9][10][11]. From the broader perspective of evolutionary theory, delimiting species is important in the context of understanding many evolutionary mechanisms and processes. Demographic structure within a species is frequently extensive [12], and this intraspecific structure will probably influence the rates at which novel adaptations originate and spread among demes [13,14], whereas the species boundary will define the limits within or across which evolutionary processes operate [15]. Over-or under-resolving species boundaries will obviously confound studies aimed at understanding these population-level processes. Species are also routinely used as fundamental units of analysis in biogeography, ecology, macroevolution and conservation biology [16 -20], and a better understanding of these larger scale processes requires that systematists employ methods to delimit objectively and rigorously what species are in nature.Here, we review nine methods of delimiting species chosen to show a range of differences with respect to the biological properties of species that can be empirically tested, the types of data needed (DNA, morphology, etc.), the density of population sampling required, and the generality of implementation (bisexual taxa only versus bisexuals and asexuals). Our review is incomplete, as other methods [9,21-24] could not be included owing to space limitations. To place operational methods into context, we briefly make a distinction between the issu...
A molecular phylogeny was reconstructed for 26 recognized genera of the Gymnophthalmidae using a total of 2379 bp of mitochondrial (12S, 16s and ND4) and nuclear (18s and c-mos) DNA sequences. We performed maximum parsimony (MP) and maximum likelihood (ML) analyses, and data partitions were analysed separately and in combination under MP. ML analyses were carried out only on the combined sequences for computational simplicity. Robustness for the recovered nodes was assessed with bootstrap and partitioned Bremer support (PBS) analyses. The total molecular evidence provided a better-resolved hypothesis than did separate analysis of individual partitions, and the PBS analysis indicates congruence among independent partitions for support of some internal nodes. Based on this hypothesis, a new classification for the family is proposed. Alopoglossus, the sister group of all the other Gymnophthalmidae was allocated to a new subfamily Alopoglossinae, and Rhachisaums (a new genus for Anotosaura brachylepis) to the new Rhachisaurinae. Two tribes are recognized within the subfamily Gymnophthalminae: Heterodactylini and Gymnophthalmini, and two others within Cercosaurinae (Ecpleopini and Cercosaurini). Some ecological and evolutionary implications of the phylogenetic hypothesis are considered, including the independent occurrence of limb reduction, body elongation, and other characters associated with fossoriality.
Squamate reptiles (lizards and snakes) are a pivotal group whose relationships have become increasingly controversial. Squamates include >9000 species, making them the second largest group of terrestrial vertebrates. They are important medicinally and as model systems for ecological and evolutionary research. However, studies of squamate biology are hindered by uncertainty over their relationships, and some consider squamate phylogeny unresolved, given recent conflicts between molecular and morphological results. To resolve these conflicts, we expand existing morphological and molecular datasets for squamates (691 morphological characters and 46 genes, for 161 living and 49 fossil taxa, including a new set of 81 morphological characters and adding two genes from published studies) and perform integrated analyses. Our results resolve higher-level relationships as indicated by molecular analyses, and reveal hidden morphological support for the molecular hypothesis (but not vice-versa). Furthermore, we find that integrating molecular, morphological, and paleontological data leads to surprising placements for two major fossil clades (Mosasauria and Polyglyphanodontia). These results further demonstrate the importance of combining fossil and molecular information, and the potential problems of estimating the placement of fossil taxa from morphological data alone. Thus, our results caution against estimating fossil relationships without considering relevant molecular data, and against placing fossils into molecular trees (e.g. for dating analyses) without considering the possible impact of molecular data on their placement.
Aim To investigate the potential distribution of Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests (SDTFs) during the Quaternary climatic fluctuations; to reassess the formerly proposed 'Pleistocenic arc hypothesis' (PAH); and to identify historically stable and unstable areas of SDTF distributions in the light of palaeodistribution modelling. Location SDTFs in lowland cis-Andean eastern-central South America. MethodsWe first developed georeferenced maps depicting the current distributional extent of SDTFs under two distinct definitions (narrow and broad). We then generated occurrence datasets, which were used with current and past bioclimatic variables to predict SDTF occurrence by implementing the maximum entropy machine-learning algorithm. We obtained historical stability maps by overlapping the presence/absence projections of each of three climatic scenarios [current, 6 kyr bp during the Holocene, and 21 kyr bp during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM)]. Finally, we checked the consistencies of the model prediction with qualitative comparisons of vegetation types inferred from available fossil pollen records. Results The present-day SDTF distribution is disjunct, but we provide evidence that it was even more disjunct during the LGM. Reconstructions support a progressive southward and eastward expansion of SDTFs on a continental scale since the LGM. No significant expansion of SDTFs into the Amazon Basin was detected. Areas of presumed long-term stability are identified and confirmed (the three nuclear regions, Caatinga, Misiones and Piedmont, plus the Chiquitano region), and these possibly acted as current and historical refugial areas. Main conclusions The LGM climate was probably too dry and cold to support large tracts of SDTF, which were restricted to climatically favourable areas relative to the present day (in contrast with the PAH, as it was originally conceived). Expansions of SDTFs are proposed to have occupied the southern portion of Caatinga nucleus more recently during the early-middle Holocene transition. We propose an alternative scenario amenable to further testing of an earlier SDTF expansion (either at the Lower Pleistocene or the Tertiary), followed by fragmentation in the LGM and secondary expansion in the Holocene. The stability maps were used to generate specific genetic predictions at both continental and regional scales (stable areas are expected to have higher genetic diversity and endemism levels than adjacent unstable areas) that can be used to direct field sampling to cover both stable (predicted refugia) and unstable (recently colonized) areas. Lastly, we discuss the possibility that SDTFs may experience future expansion under changing climate scenarios and that both stable and unstable areas should be prioritized by conservation initiatives.
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