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Aim To investigate the potential distribution of Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests (SDTFs) during the Quaternary climatic fluctuations; to reassess the formerly proposed 'Pleistocenic arc hypothesis' (PAH); and to identify historically stable and unstable areas of SDTF distributions in the light of palaeodistribution modelling. Location SDTFs in lowland cis-Andean eastern-central South America. MethodsWe first developed georeferenced maps depicting the current distributional extent of SDTFs under two distinct definitions (narrow and broad). We then generated occurrence datasets, which were used with current and past bioclimatic variables to predict SDTF occurrence by implementing the maximum entropy machine-learning algorithm. We obtained historical stability maps by overlapping the presence/absence projections of each of three climatic scenarios [current, 6 kyr bp during the Holocene, and 21 kyr bp during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM)]. Finally, we checked the consistencies of the model prediction with qualitative comparisons of vegetation types inferred from available fossil pollen records. Results The present-day SDTF distribution is disjunct, but we provide evidence that it was even more disjunct during the LGM. Reconstructions support a progressive southward and eastward expansion of SDTFs on a continental scale since the LGM. No significant expansion of SDTFs into the Amazon Basin was detected. Areas of presumed long-term stability are identified and confirmed (the three nuclear regions, Caatinga, Misiones and Piedmont, plus the Chiquitano region), and these possibly acted as current and historical refugial areas. Main conclusions The LGM climate was probably too dry and cold to support large tracts of SDTF, which were restricted to climatically favourable areas relative to the present day (in contrast with the PAH, as it was originally conceived). Expansions of SDTFs are proposed to have occupied the southern portion of Caatinga nucleus more recently during the early-middle Holocene transition. We propose an alternative scenario amenable to further testing of an earlier SDTF expansion (either at the Lower Pleistocene or the Tertiary), followed by fragmentation in the LGM and secondary expansion in the Holocene. The stability maps were used to generate specific genetic predictions at both continental and regional scales (stable areas are expected to have higher genetic diversity and endemism levels than adjacent unstable areas) that can be used to direct field sampling to cover both stable (predicted refugia) and unstable (recently colonized) areas. Lastly, we discuss the possibility that SDTFs may experience future expansion under changing climate scenarios and that both stable and unstable areas should be prioritized by conservation initiatives.

Aim  To investigate the historical distribution of the Cerrado across Quaternary climatic fluctuations and to generate historical stability maps to test: (1) whether the ‘historical climate’ stability hypothesis explains squamate reptile richness in the Cerrado; and (2) the hypothesis of Pleistocene connections between savannas located north and south of Amazonia. Location  The Cerrado, a savanna biome and a global biodiversity hotspot distributed mainly in central Brazil. Methods  We generated occurrence datasets from 1000 presence points randomly selected from the entire distribution of the Cerrado, as determined by two spatial definitions. We modelled the potential Cerrado distribution by implementing a maximum‐entropy machine‐learning algorithm across four time projections: current, mid‐Holocene (6 ka), Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21 ka) and Last Interglacial (LIG, 120 ka). We generated historical stability maps (refugial areas) by overlapping presence/absence projections of all scenarios, and checked consistencies with qualitative comparisons with available fossil pollen records. We built a spatially explicit simultaneous autoregressive model to explore the relationship between current climate, climatic stability, and squamate species richness. Results  Models predicted the LGM and LIG as the periods of narrowest and widest Cerrado distributions, respectively, and were largely corroborated by palynological evidence. We found evidence for two savanna corridors (eastern coastal during the LIG, and Andean during the LGM) and predicted a large refugial area in the north‐eastern Cerrado (Serra Geral de Goiás refugium). Variables related to climatic stability predicted squamate richness better than present climatic variables did. Main conclusions  Our results indicate that Bolivian savannas should be included within the Cerrado range and that the Cerrado’s biogeographical counterparts are not Chaco and Caatinga but rather the disjunct savannas of the Guyana shield plateaus. Climatic stability is a good predictor of Cerrado squamate richness, and our stability maps could be used in future studies to test diversity patterns and genetic signatures of different taxonomic groups and as a higher‐order landscape biodiversity surrogate for conservation planning.

The relative influence of Neogene geomorphological events and Quaternary climatic changes as causal mechanisms on Neotropical diversification remains largely speculative, as most divergence timing inferences are based on a single locus and have limited taxonomic or geographic sampling. To investigate these influences, we use a multilocus (two mitochondrial and 11 nuclear genes) range-wide sampling of Phyllopezus pollicaris, a gecko complex widely distributed across the poorly studied South American 'dry diagonal' biomes. Our approach couples traditional and model-based phylogeography with geospatial methods, and demonstrates Miocene diversification and limited influence of Pleistocene climatic fluctuations on P. pollicaris. Phylogeographic structure and distribution models highlight that persistence across multiple isolated regions shaped the diversification of this species complex.Approximate Bayesian computation supports hypotheses of allopatric and ecological/sympatric speciation between lineages that largely coincide with genetic clusters associated with Chaco, Cerrado, and Caatinga, standing for complex diversification between the 'dry diagonal' biomes. We recover extremely high genetic diversity and suggest that eight well-supported clades may be valid species, with direct implications for taxonomy and conservation assessments. These patterns exemplify how low-vagility species complexes, characterized by strong genetic structure and pre-Pleistocene divergence histories, represent ideal radiations to investigate broad biogeographic histories of associated biomes.

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Aim The aim was to examine the links between past biome stability, vegetation dynamics and biodiversity patterns. Location South America. Time period Last 30,000 years. Major taxa studied Plants. Methods We classified South America into major biomes according to their dominant plant functional groups (grasses, trees and shrubs) and ran a random forest (RF) classification with data on current climate. We then fitted the algorithm to predict biome distributions for every 1,000 years back to 21,000 yr BP and estimated biome stability by counting how many times a change in climate was predicted to shift a grid cell from one biome to another. We compared our model‐based stability map with empirical estimates from selected pollen records covering the past 30 kyr in terms of vegetation shifts, changes in species composition and time‐lag of vegetation responses. Results We found a strong correlation between our habitat stability map and regional vegetation dynamics. Four scenarios emerged according to the way forest distribution shifted during a climate change. Each scenario related to specific regional features of biome stability and diversity, allowing us to formulate specific predictions on how taxonomic, genetic and functional components of biodiversity might be impacted by modern climate change. Main conclusions Our validated map of biome stability provides important baseline information for studying the impacts of past climate on biodiversity in South America. By focusing exclusively on climatic changes of manifested relevance (i.e., those resulting in significant habitat changes), it provides a novel perspective that complements previous datasets and allows scientists to explore new questions and hypotheses at the local, regional and continental scales.

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is altering dynamics in academia, and people juggling remote work and domestic demands – including childcare – have felt impacts on their productivity. Female authors have faced a decrease in paper submission rates since the beginning of the pandemic period. The reasons for this decline in women’s productivity need to be further investigated. Here, we analyzed the influence of gender, parenthood and race on academic productivity during the pandemic period based on a survey answered by 3,345 Brazilian academics from various knowledge areas and research institutions. Productivity was assessed by the ability to submit papers as planned and to meet deadlines during the initial period of social isolation in Brazil. The findings revealed that male academics – especially those without children – are the least affected group, whereas Black women and mothers are the most impacted groups. These impacts are likely a consequence of the well-known unequal division of domestic labor between men and women, which has been exacerbated during the pandemic. Additionally, our results highlight that racism strongly persists in academia, especially against Black women. The pandemic will have long-term effects on the career progression of the most affected groups. The results presented here are crucial for the development of actions and policies that aim to avoid further deepening the gender gap in academia.

Many studies propose that Quaternary climatic cycles contracted and/or expanded the ranges of species and biomes. Strong expansion-contraction dynamics of biomes presume concerted demographic changes of associated fauna. The analysis of temporal concordance of demographic changes can be used to test the influence of Quaternary climate on diversification processes. Hierarchical approximate Bayesian computation (hABC) is a powerful and flexible approach that models genetic data from multiple species, and can be used to estimate the temporal concordance of demographic processes. Using available single-locus data, we can now perform large-scale analyses, both in terms of number of species and geographic scope. Here, we first compared the power of four alternative hABC models for a collection of single-locus data. We found that the model incorporating an a priori hypothesis about the timing of simultaneous demographic change had the best performance. Second, we applied the hABC models to a data set of seven squamate and four amphibian species occurring in the Seasonally Dry Tropical Forests (Caatinga) in northeastern Brazil, which, according to paleoclimatic evidence, experienced an increase in aridity during the Pleistocene. If this increase was important for the diversification of associated xeric-adapted species, simultaneous population expansions should be evident at the community level. We found a strong signal of synchronous population expansion in the Late Pleistocene, supporting the increase of the Caatinga during this time. This expansion likely enhanced the formation of communities adapted to high aridity and seasonality and caused regional extirpation of taxa adapted to wet forest.