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and the United States) for the period 1980-1991. Using a decomposition analysis based on physical indicators for process type and product mix, we decompose intra-sectoral structural changes and efficiency improvements. Specific energy consumption decreased in all countries except Poland. Efficiency improvement played a key role in Brazil, China, Germany and the U.S., while structural changes were the main driver for energy savings in France and Japan. We also compare the use of various economic indicators to physical indicators and find that they do not track physical developments well in Poland or the developing countries we studied. In the industrialized countries, value added based energy intensity indicators generally reflect the specific energy consumption better than other economic indicators, although large differences occur in individual years. We found a smaller correlation between other economic indicators (gross output and value of shipments) and specific energy consumption. We conclude that use of physical energy intensity indicators improves comparability between countries, provides greater information for policymakers regarding intra-sectoral structural changes, and provides detailed explanations for observed changes in energy intensity. This article will be published in a Special Issue of Energy Policy on CrossCountry Comparisons of Indicators of Energy Use, Energy Efficiency, and C02 Emissions.

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Most transition studies are historical in nature and fail to arrive at prospective conclusions about future potential. In this paper we develop a new prospective transition framework, which revolves around the interplay between business models and socio-technical contexts. By looking at the dynamics of increasing returns, industry structure and the role of institutions, we analyze the upscaling potential of innovative bike sharing business models as introduced in Dutch cities over the past ten years (two-way station-based, one-way station-based, one-way free floating, and peer-to-peer sharing). We find that station-based business models are well institutionalized but harder to scale up, while the recent one-way free-floating model has the greatest scaling potential if institutional adaptations and geo-fencing technologies are successfully implemented. Peer-to-peer sharing is likely to remain a niche with special purpose bikes.

a b s t r a c tThe ability of firms to influence environmental regulation has largely been overlooked in transition studies. We study how car manufacturers combine and change their innovation and political influence strategies in response to a technology-forcing regulation. We apply a conceptual framework on corporate responses to public innovation policy to the case of the zero emission vehicle mandate over the period 1990-2013. We use patent and sales data to operationalize the R&D and commercialization aspects of innovation strategies, while using corporate political activities data to operationalize political influence strategies. We find that first, car manufacturers used specific combinations of innovation and political influence strategies, depending on their value maintaining or value creating nature. Second, manufacturers changed their strategies and became more value creating over time, which supported socio-technical change. Third, we refine the available strategy typology by identifying subclasses in defensive (opposition and slowdown) and proactive strategies (shaping, support and progressive).

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The transition toward a sustainable transportation system in the Netherlands takes place in the context of the Dutch "Transition management policy framework". We study four technological routes that the "Platform Sustainable Mobility" has selected for this goal: (1) hybridization of vehicles, (2) liquid biofuels, (3) natural gas as a transportation fuel and (4) hydrogen as a transportation fuel. These technological routes all envision large-scale changes in vehicle propulsion technology and fuel infrastructure. Furthermore, they compete for the scarce resources available to invest in new (fuel) infrastructures, which implicates that these 'transition paths' are also interdependent at the level of the mobility system. The main outcome of the analysis is the identification of barriers that are currently blocking the transition toward sustainable mobility. Barriers are classified as being related to (1) technology and vehicle development, (2) the availability of (fuel) infrastructures, and (3) elements of the institutional infrastructure. The transition management framework currently misses guidelines for coping with (competing) technologies that each require large infrastructural investments. We further argue that avoiding undesired lock-ins and creating a beneficial institutional context for sustainable mobility cannot be pursued at the transition path level. Therefore, we recommend that a more systemic approach should be taken to the transition to sustainable mobility, in which the interdependencies between the transition paths are critically assessed and in which the possibilities to legitimize sustainable mobility as a whole should be used.

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