Recent projections of climatic change have focused a great deal of scientific and public attention on patterns of carbon (C) cycling as well as its controls, particularly the factors that determine whether an ecosystem is a net source or sink of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ). Net ecosystem production (NEP), a central concept in C-cycling research, has been used by scientists to represent two different concepts. We propose that NEP be restricted to just one of its two original definitions-the imbalance between gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration (ER). We further propose that a new term-net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB)-be applied to the net rate of C accumulation in (or loss from [negative sign]) ecosystems. Net ecosystem carbon balance differs from NEP when C fluxes other than C fixation and respiration occur, or when inorganic C enters or leaves in dissolved form. These fluxes include the leaching loss or lateral transfer of C from the ecosystem; the emission of volatile organic C, methane, and carbon monoxide; and the release of soot and CO 2 from fire. Carbon fluxes in addition to NEP are particularly important determinants of NECB over long time scales. However, even over short time scales, they are important in ecosystems such as streams, estuaries, wetlands, and cities. Recent technological advances have led to a diversity of approaches to the measurement of C fluxes at different temporal and spatial scales. These approaches frequently capture different components of NEP or NECB and can therefore be compared across scales only by carefully specifying the 1041 fluxes included in the measurements. By explicitly identifying the fluxes that comprise NECB and other components of the C cycle, such as net ecosystem exchange (NEE) and net biome production (NBP), we can provide a less ambiguous framework for understanding and communicating recent changes in the global C cycle.

The Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO) mission was selected by NASA's Office of Earth Science as the fifth mission in its Earth System Science Pathfinder (ESSP) Program. OCO will make the first global, space-based measurements of atmospheric CO 2 with the precision, resolution, and coverage needed to characterize sources and sinks of this important green-house gas. These measurements will improve our ability to forecast CO 2 -induced climate change. OCO will fly in a 1:15 PM sun-synchronous orbit, sharing its ground track with the Earth Observing System (EOS) Aqua platform. It will carry high-resolution spectrometers to measure reflected sunlight in the molecular oxygen (O 2 ) A-band at 0.76 m and the CO 2 bands at 1.61 and 2.06 m to retrieve the column-averaged CO 2 dry air mole fraction, X CO 2 . A comprehensive validation and correlative measurement program has been incorporated into this mission to ensure that X CO 2 can be retrieved with precisions of 0.3% (1 ppm) on regional scales.

Summary Synthesis of results from several Arctic and boreal research programmes provides evidence for the strong role of high‐latitude ecosystems in the climate system. Average surface air temperature has increased 0.3 °C per decade during the twentieth century in the western North American Arctic and boreal forest zones. Precipitation has also increased, but changes in soil moisture are uncertain. Disturbance rates have increased in the boreal forest; for example, there has been a doubling of the area burned in North America in the past 20 years. The disturbance regime in tundra may not have changed. Tundra has a 3–6‐fold higher winter albedo than boreal forest, but summer albedo and energy partitioning differ more strongly among ecosystems within either tundra or boreal forest than between these two biomes. This indicates a need to improve our understanding of vegetation dynamics within, as well as between, biomes. If regional surface warming were to continue, changes in albedo and energy absorption would likely act as a positive feedback to regional warming due to earlier melting of snow and, over the long term, the northward movement of treeline. Surface drying and a change in dominance from mosses to vascular plants would also enhance sensible heat flux and regional warming in tundra. In the boreal forest of western North America, deciduous forests have twice the albedo of conifer forests in both winter and summer, 50–80% higher evapotranspiration, and therefore only 30–50% of the sensible heat flux of conifers in summer. Therefore, a warming‐induced increase in fire frequency that increased the proportion of deciduous forests in the landscape, would act as a negative feedback to regional warming. Changes in thermokarst and the aerial extent of wetlands, lakes, and ponds would alter high‐latitude methane flux. There is currently a wide discrepancy among estimates of the size and direction of CO2 flux between high‐latitude ecosystems and the atmosphere. These discrepancies relate more strongly to the approach and assumptions for extrapolation than to inconsistencies in the underlying data. Inverse modelling from atmospheric CO2 concentrations suggests that high latitudes are neutral or net sinks for atmospheric CO2, whereas field measurements suggest that high latitudes are neutral or a net CO2 source. Both approaches rely on assumptions that are difficult to verify. The most parsimonious explanation of the available data is that drying in tundra and disturbance in boreal forest enhance CO2 efflux. Nevertheless, many areas of both tundra and boreal forests remain net sinks due to regional variation in climate and local variation in topographically determined soil moisture. Improved understanding of the role of high‐latitude ecosystems in the climate system requires a concerted research effort that focuses on geographical variation in the processes controlling land–atmosphere exchange, species composition, and ecosystem structure. Future studies must be conducted over a long enough time‐period to detect and qu...

Abstract. We report changes in the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 at high northern latitudes from 1980 to 1997 based on NOAA/CMDL observation stations. Using a combination of biogeochemical and atmospheric modeling approaches, we show that increases in early season net ecosystem uptake explain the recent trends in the seasonal cycle. A strong year-to-year correlation between spring temperatures and early season uptake further suggests that increased photosynthetic activity is the primary mechanism.' At the end of the growing season, a strong correlation between fall temperatures and late season releases provides evidence for a large active pool of decomposing soil carbon. Taken together, our results suggest that the seasonal timing of temperature anomalies may have important consequences for the interannual carbon balance of northern ecosystems.

[1] The net radiation available to drive surface-atmosphere exchange is strongly influenced by albedo and surface temperature. Tower-based microclimatic and eddy covariance measurements in typical Alaskan black spruce and tundra ecosystems before and immediately after fire indicated a 10% decrease in net radiation over the burned spruce stand but a 12% increase in net radiation over the burned tundra surface. In both cases, there was increased partitioning of net radiation into sensible heat flux. In terms of absolute fluxes, however, fire increased average sensible heating over tundra by $50 W m À2 but caused little change in average sensible heat flux over the black spruce forest. This difference in fire effects occurred because fire altered the canopy characteristics (including surface roughness) more strongly in the forest than in the tundra, leading to a greater reduction in surface-atmosphere coupling over the forest.

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Floods and droughts frequently affect the Amazon River basin, impacting transportation, river navigation, agriculture, and ecosystem processes within several South American countries. Here we examined how sea surface temperatures (SSTs) influence interannual variability of terrestrial water storage anomalies (TWSAs) in different regions within the Amazon basin and propose a modeling framework for inter-seasonal flood and drought forecasting. Three simple statistical models forced by a linear combination of lagged spatial averages of central Pacific (Niño 4 index) and tropical North Atlantic (TNAI index) SSTs were calibrated against a decade-long record of 3°, monthly TWSAs observed by the Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite mission. Niño 4 was the primary external forcing in the northeastern region of the Amazon basin whereas TNAI was dominant in central and western regions. A combined model using the two indices improved the fit significantly (p < 0.05) for at least 64% of the grid cells within the basin, compared to models forced solely with Niño 4 or TNAI. The combined model explained 66% of the observed variance in the northeastern region, 39% in the central and western regions, and 43% for the Amazon basin as a whole with a 3 month lead time between the SST indices and TWSAs. Model performance varied seasonally: it was higher than average during the rainfall wet season in the northeastern Amazon and during the dry season in the central and western regions. The predictive capability of the combined model was degraded with increasing lead times. Degradation was smaller in the northeastern Amazon (where 49% of the variance was explained using an 8 month lead time vs. 69% for a 1 month lead time) compared to the central and western Amazon (where 22% of the variance was explained at 8 months vs. 43% at 1 month). These relationships may enable the development of an early warning system for flood and drought risk. This work also strengthens our understanding of the mechanisms regulating interannual variability in Amazon fires, as water storage deficits may subsequently lead to decreases in transpiration and atmospheric water vapor that cause more severe fire weather

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