No abstract

There is confusion about how carotid stenosis should be measured on angiograms. If the results of research based on different methods of measurement of stenosis are to be discussed and the results of clinical trials properly applied to routine clinical practice, measurements made by the different methods must be formally compared. The method of measurement of stenosis used in the European Carotid Surgery Trial (ECST), that used in the North American Symptomatic Carotid Endarterectomy Trial (NASCET), and a method based on measurement of the common carotid (CC) artery lumen diameter were compared. Carotid stenosis was measured by two observers, working independently and using the three different methods of measurement, on the angiographic view of the symptomatic carotid stenosis that showed the most severe disease in 1001 patients from the ECST. The results of using the ECST and CC methods differed from those of using the NASCET method in the classification of stenoses as mild (0% to 29%), moderate (30% to 69%), or severe (70% to 99%) in 51% of measurements. The ECST and CC methods indicated that twice as many stenoses were severe as did the NASCET method, and classified less than a third of the number of stenoses as mild. The results of the ECST and CC methods differed from each other in 15% of measurements. The relations between measurements made by each method to those made by the others were approximately linear, so a simple equation could be derived to convert measurements made by one method to measurements made by the others. There were major and clinically important disparities between measurements of stenosis made using different methods of measurement on the same angiograms. However, it is possible to convert measurements made by one method to those of another using a simple arithmetic equation.

The risk of stroke and death from carotid endarterectomy is related to several clinical and angiographic characteristics. These observations may help clinicians to estimate operative risks for individual patients and will also facilitate more meaningful comparison of the operative risks of different surgeons or at different institutions by allowing some adjustment for differences in case mix.

The reported risks of endarterectomy for symptomatic carotid stenosis show significantly greater variability than would be expected by chance. However, much of this variability can be accounted for by differences in methodology and authorship. The 5.6% overall risk of stroke and/or death is consistent with present guidelines.

Mortality and the risk of stroke and/or death due to carotid endarterectomy are significantly lower for asymptomatic than symptomatic stenosis. These findings are consistent across virtually all studies and are likely to be widely generalizable.

The aims of this study were to determine the important prognostic factors at presentation which identify patients with transient ischaemic attacks (TIA) who are at high risk (and low risk) of serious vascular events and to derive a prediction model (equation) for each of the major vascular outcome events.A cohort of 469 TIA patients referred to a University hospital, without prior stroke, were evaluated prospectively and followed up over a mean period of 4'1 years (range 1-10 years). The major outcome events of interest were 1) stroke 2) coronary event and 3) stroke, myocardial infarction or vascular death (whichever occurred first). Prognostic factors and their hazard ratios were identified by means of the Cox proportional hazards multiple regression analysis. The significant adverse prognostic factors (in order of strength of association) for stroke were an increasing number ofTIAs in the three months before presentation, increasing age, peripheral vascular disease, left ventricular hypertrophy andTIAs of the brain (compared with the eye); the prognostic factors for coronary event were increasing age, ischaemic heart disease, male sex, and a combination of carotid and vertebrobasilar TIAs at presentation; and for stroke, myocardial infarction or vascular death they were increasing age, peripheral vascular disease, increasing number of TIAs in the three months before presentation, male sex, a combination of carotid and vertebrobasilar TIAs at presentation, TIAs of the brain (compared with the eye), left ventricular hypertrophy and the presence of residual neurological signs after the TIA. Prediction models (equations) of both the relative risk and absolute risk of each of the major outcome events were produced, based on the presence or level of the significant prognostic factors and their hazard. Before it can be concluded that our equations accurately predict prognosis and can be generalised to other populations, their predictive power needs to be validated in other, independent samples of TIA patients (which we are currently doing). (J Neurol Neurosurg Psychiatry 1992;55:640-652)

A cohort of 469 hospital-referred patients with transient ischaemic attacks (TIA) of the brain (66%) or eye (34%) due to presumed atheromatous thromboembolism, lipohyalinosis or cardiogenic embolism, without prior stroke, was assembled between 1976-86. Follow up was prospective and complete until the patients death or the end of 1986. During a mean period of follow up of 4-1 years there were 82 deaths (58 vascular, 24 non-vascular), 63 first-ever strokes and 58 patients with coronary events. A coronary event accounted for 51% of deaths whilst stroke was the cause in 12%. The average risk of death over the first five years after TIA was 4 5% per year. The risk of stroke was 6-6% in the first year and 3 4% per year on average over the first five years. Stroke occurred in the same vascular territory as the initial TIA in about two-thirds of cases, and was of lacunar type in one fifth of these strokes. The average risk of a coronary event over the first five years after TIA was 3-1% per year, similar to that of stroke. However, the risk of a coronary event, and also death, was fairly constant each year after a TIA, in contrast to the risk of stroke which was highest in the first year. The average risk of stroke, myocardial infarction or vascular death over the first five years after TIA was 6-5% per year and the average risk of stroke, myocardial infarction or death from any cause was 7 5% per year.

No abstract