This Guidance describes a two-phase approach for a fit-for-purpose method for the assessment of plant pest risk in the territory of the EU. Phase one consists of pest categorisation to determine whether the pest has the characteristics of a quarantine pest or those of a regulated non-quarantine pest for the area of the EU. Phase two consists of pest risk assessment, which may be requested by the risk managers following the pest categorisation results. This Guidance provides a template for pest categorisation and describes in detail the use of modelling and expert knowledge elicitation to conduct a pest risk assessment. The Guidance provides support and a framework for assessors to provide quantitative estimates, together with associated uncertainties, regarding the entry, establishment, spread and impact of plant pests in the EU. The Guidance allows the effectiveness of risk reducing options (RROs) to be quantitatively assessed as an integral part of the assessment framework. A list of RROs is provided. A two-tiered approach is proposed for the use of expert knowledge elicitation and modelling. Depending on data and resources available and the needs of risk managers, pest entry, establishment, spread and impact steps may be assessed directly, using weight of evidence and quantitative expert judgement (first tier), or they may be elaborated in substeps using quantitative models (second tier). An example of an application of the first tier approach is provided. Guidance is provided on how to derive models of appropriate complexity to conduct a second tier assessment. Each assessment is operationalised using Monte Carlo simulations that can compare scenarios for relevant factors, e.g. with or without RROs. This document provides guidance on how to compare scenarios to draw conclusions on the magnitude of pest risks and the effectiveness of RROs and on how to communicate assessment results.
The Panel on Plant Health conducted a pest risk assessment for Bemisia tabaci and the viruses it transmits, including an evaluation of risk reduction options and an assessment of the effectiveness of the special requirements linked to B. tabaci and the viruses listed in Council Directive 2000/29/EC. B. tabaci and a large number of viruses transmitted by this polyphagous insect occur in subtropical and tropical climates around the world. Five entry pathways for B. tabaci and associated viruses were identified, with the plants for planting pathway being most significant and rated for entry of insects and viruses as likely and moderately likely, respectively. The most invasive B. tabaci species and several of its associated viruses responsible for severe diseases in major European food crops are established outdoors in coastal Mediterranean regions. Because of similar climate requirements and host plant preferences, B. tabaci and associated viruses currently not present in Europe are likely to establish within the temperature limits set for B. tabaci. Trade between European Member States allows B. tabaci to reach greenhouses in northern Europe, including those in areas with protected zone status. Because of the cool climate, establishment and spread outdoors of B. tabaci is rated unlikely for northern Europe. This situation is likely to continue even under a climatic scenario with an increase in temperature of +2 °C. B. tabaci -transmitted viruses cause severe diseases with major negative impact on crop production when risk reduction measures are not used. Risk reduction options will also apply to B. tabaci and viruses new to Europe. Risk reductions options are evaluated in terms of reducing B. tabaci populations, crop infestations, virus incidence and the impact of diseases. © European Food Safety Authority, 2013 KEY WORDSBemisia tabaci, European and non-European Bemisia tabaci, begomoviruses, non-circulatively transmitted viruses, pest risk assessment, risk reduction options. With regard to the assessment of the risks to plant health:B. tabaci is considered to be one of the most serious threats to crop cultivation worldwide, predominantly because of the large number of viruses it transmits. In regions where B. tabaci is established, viruses transmitted by this insect, especially those affecting tomato and cucurbits, and also beans, pepper and aubergines, are responsible for severe diseases that have a strong negative impact on crop yield. As a consequence, crop production in those areas is not possible without a system-wide and comprehensive set of pest and disease management measures in place. In the risk assessment area, B. tabaci is present outdoors in coastal areas with a Mediterranean climate, and in many EU countries the pest is present in greenhouses.B. tabaci is a complex of at least 28 indistinguishable morphocryptic species, of which four occur in Europe. Two species, Mediterranean (Med, formerly referred to as biotype Q) and Middle East-Asia Minor 1 (MEAM1, formerly referred to as biotype B), a...
The history of agriculture includes many animal and plant disease events that have had major consequences for the sector, as well as for humans. At the same time, human activities beyond agriculture have often driven the emergence of diseases. The more that humans expand the footprint of the global population, encroach into natural habitats, alter these habitats to extract resources and intensify food production, as well as move animals, people and commodities along with the pathogens they carry, the greater the potential for pathogens and pests to spread and for infection to emerge or re-emerge. While essential to human well-being, producing food also plays a major role in disease dynamics. The risk of emergence of pests and pathogens has increased as a consequence of global changes in the way food is produced, moved and consumed. Climate change is likely to increase pressure on the availability of food and provide newly suitable conditions for invasive pests and pathogens. Human population displacements due to economic, political and humanitarian crises represent another set of potential drivers for emerging issues. The overlapping drivers of plant, animal and human disease emergence and environmental changes point towards the concept of 'One Health'. This paradigm underlines the urgent need to understand the influence of human behaviour and incorporate this understanding into our approach to emerging risks. For this, we face two major challenges. One is cultural; the second is methodological. We have to look at systems not under the narrow view of specific hazards but with a wider approach to system dynamics, and consider a broad spectrum of potential outcomes in terms of risk. In addition, we have to make sense of the vast amounts of data that are available in the modern age. This paper aims to help in preparing for the cultural and methodological shifts needed in our approach to emerging risks.
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