A B S T R A C TUnderstanding and predicting reservoir presence and characteristics at regional to basin scales is important for evaluating risk and uncertainty in hydrocarbon exploration. Simulating reservoir distribution within a basin by a stratigraphic forward model enables the integration of available prior information with fundamental geologic processes embedded in the numerical model. Stratigraphic forward model predictions can be significantly improved by calibrating the models to independent constraints, such as thicknesses from seismic or well data. A three-dimensional basin-scale stratigraphic forward-modeling tool is coupled with an inversion algorithm. The inversion algorithm is a modification of the neighborhood algorithm (a type of genetic algorithm), which is designed to sample complex multimodal objective functions and is parallelized on computer clusters to accelerate convergence. The process generates a set of representative geological models that are consistent with prior ranges for uncertain parameters, calibration constraints, and associated tolerance thresholds. The workflow is first demonstrated on two data sets: a synthetic example based on a clastic passive margin and a real hydrocarbon exploration example for slope and basin-floor stratigraphic traps in the Neocomian (Lower Cretaceous) of the West Siberian Basin. The analysis of calibrated models provides constraints on stratigraphic controls, and allows prediction of locations with higher potential to develop stratigraphic traps. These locations are related to complex interactions between paleobathymetry, subsidence, eustatic fluctuations, characteristics of sediment-input sources, and sediment-transport parameters. Results show the potential of stratigraphic forward modeling O. Falivene joined Shell in 2008, and since then he has worked for research and development (R&D) developing and applying stratigraphic forward models to support worldwide exploration in clastic and carbonate settings. Oriol has a background in stratigraphy, geocellular modeling, and geostatistics (Ph.D. in modeling outcrop analogs at the University of Barcelona, Spain), and a short period working on reservoir modeling for British Petroleum.A. Frascati ∼ Shell Global Solutions International B.V.,

The application of sequence stratigraphy to seismic interpretation has proven to be fundamentally important in basin analysis. It provides a framework for understanding strat-igraphic evolution and is a key element in predicting the spatial distribution of reservoir, seal, and source rocks. Traditional methods of seismic se-quence stratigraphy make use of observations such as stacking patterns, seismic character of facies, and their distribution to develop subsurface models. We present a set of seismically derived geometric attributes that enhance and characterize these observations, allowing a sequence stratigraphic framework to be developed in the earliest stages of interpretation.

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