The role of time in ecology has a long history of investigation, but ecologists have largely restricted their attention to the influence of concurrent abiotic conditions on rates and magnitudes of important ecological processes. Recently, however, ecologists have improved their understanding of ecological processes by explicitly considering the effects of antecedent conditions. To broadly help in studying the role of time, we evaluate the length, temporal pattern, and strength of memory with respect to the influence of antecedent conditions on current ecological dynamics. We developed the stochastic antecedent modelling (SAM) framework as a flexible analytic approach for evaluating exogenous and endogenous process components of memory in a system of interest. We designed SAM to be useful in revealing novel insights promoting further study, illustrated in four examples with different degrees of complexity and varying time scales: stomatal conductance, soil respiration, ecosystem productivity, and tree growth. Models with antecedent effects explained an additional 18-28% of response variation compared to models without antecedent effects. Moreover, SAM also enabled identification of potential mechanisms that underlie components of memory, thus revealing temporal properties that are not apparent from traditional treatments of ecological time-series data and facilitating new hypothesis generation and additional research.

The combined effects of vegetation and climate change on biosphere-atmosphere water vapor (H2 O) and carbon dioxide (CO2 ) exchanges are expected to vary depending, in part, on how biotic activity is controlled by and alters water availability. This is particularly important when a change in ecosystem composition alters the fractional covers of bare soil, grass, and woody plants so as to influence the accessibility of shallower vs. deeper soil water pools. To study this, we compared 5 years of eddy covariance measurements of H2 O and CO2 fluxes over a riparian grassland, shrubland, and woodland. In comparison with the surrounding upland region, groundwater access at the riparian sites increased net carbon uptake (NEP) and evapotranspiration (ET), which were sustained over more of the year. Among the sites, the grassland used less of the stable groundwater resource, and increasing woody plant density decoupled NEP and ET from incident precipitation (P), resulting in greater exchange rates that were less variable year to year. Despite similar gross patterns, how groundwater accessibility affected NEP was more complex than ET. The grassland had higher respiration (Reco ) costs. Thus, while it had similar ET and gross carbon uptake (GEP) to the shrubland, grassland NEP was substantially less. Also, grassland carbon fluxes were more variable due to occasional flooding at the site, which both stimulated and inhibited NEP depending upon phenology. Woodland NEP was large, but surprisingly similar to the less mature, sparse shrubland, even while having much greater GEP. Woodland Reco was greater than the shrubland and responded strongly and positively to P, which resulted in a surprising negative NEP response to P. This is likely due to the large accumulation of carbon aboveground and in the surface soil. These long-term observations support the strong role that water accessibility can play when determining the consequences of ecosystem vegetation change.

Rapid Arctic warming is associated with important water cycle changes: sea ice loss, increasing atmospheric humidity, permafrost thaw, and water-induced ecosystem changes. Understanding these complex modern processes is critical to interpreting past hydrologic changes preserved in paleoclimate records and predicting future Arctic changes. Cyclones are a prevalent Arctic feature and water vapor isotope ratios during these events provide insights into modern hydrologic processes that help explain past changes to the Arctic water cycle. Here we present continuous measurements of water vapor isotope ratios (δ18O, δ2H, d-excess) in Arctic Alaska from a 2013 cyclone. This cyclone resulted in a sharp d-excess decrease and disproportional δ18O enrichment, indicative of a higher humidity open Arctic Ocean water vapor source. Past transitions to warmer climates inferred from Greenland ice core records also reveal sharp decreases in d-excess, hypothesized to represent reduced sea ice extent and an increase in oceanic moisture source to Greenland Ice Sheet precipitation. Thus, measurements of water vapor isotope ratios during an Arctic cyclone provide a critical processed-based explanation, and the first direct confirmation, of relationships previously assumed to govern water isotope ratios during sea ice retreat and increased input of northern ocean moisture into the Arctic water cycle.

Climate change and thawing permafrost in the arctic will significantly alter landscape hydro-geomorphology and the distribution of soil moisture, which will have cascading effects on climate feedbacks (CO2 and CH4), and plant and microbial communities. Fundamental processes critical to predicting active layer hydrology are not well understood. This study applied water stable isotope techniques ( 2 H and  18 O) to infer sources and mixing of active layer waters in a polygonal tundra landscape in Barrow, Alaska (USA) in August and September of 2012. Results suggested that winter precipitation did not contribute substantially to surface waters or subsurface active layer pore waters measured in August and September. Summer rain was the main source of water to the active layer, with seasonal ice-melt contributing to deeper pore waters later in the season. Surface water evaporation was evident in August from a characteristic isotopic fractionation slope ( 2 H versus  18 O). Freeze-out isotopic fractionation effects in frozen active layer samples and textural permafrost were indistinguishable from evaporation fractionation, emphasizing the importance of considering the most likely processes in water isotope studies, in systems where both evaporation and freeze-out occur in close proximity. The fractionation observed in frozen active layer ice was not observed in liquid active layer pore waters. Such a discrepancy between frozen and liquid active layer samples suggests mixing of melt water, likely due to slow melting of seasonal ice. This research provides insight into fundamental processes relating to sources and mixing of active layer waters, which should be considered in process-based fine and intermediate scale hydrologic models.

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