Abstract. Mountain ranges in Asia are important water suppliers, especially if downstream climates are arid, water demands are high and glaciers are abundant. In such basins, the hydrological cycle depends heavily on high-altitude precipitation. Yet direct observations of high-altitude precipitation are lacking and satellite derived products are of insufficient resolution and quality to capture spatial variation and magnitude of mountain precipitation. Here we use glacier mass balances to inversely infer the high-altitude precipitation in the upper Indus basin and show that the amount of precipitation required to sustain the observed mass balances of large glacier systems is far beyond what is observed at valley stations or estimated by gridded precipitation products. An independent validation with observed river flow confirms that the water balance can indeed only be closed when the highaltitude precipitation on average is more than twice as high and in extreme cases up to a factor of 10 higher than previously thought. We conclude that these findings alter the present understanding of high-altitude hydrology and will have an important bearing on climate change impact studies, planning and design of hydropower plants and irrigation reservoirs as well as the regional geopolitical situation in general.
Nepal's quake-driven landslide hazards
Large earthquakes can trigger dangerous landslides across a wide geographic region. The 2015
M
w
7.8 Gorhka earthquake near Kathmandu, Nepal, was no exception. Kargal
et al.
used remote observations to compile a massive catalog of triggered debris flows. The satellite-based observations came from a rapid response team assisting the disaster relief effort. Schwanghart
et al.
show that Kathmandu escaped the historically catastrophic landslides associated with earthquakes in 1100, 1255, and 1344 C.E. near Nepal's second largest city, Pokhara. These two studies underscore the importance of determining slope stability in mountainous, earthquake-prone regions.
Science
, this issue p.
10.1126/science.aac8353
; see also p.
147
[1] This study investigated the sensitivity of streamflow to changes in climate and glacier cover for the Bridge River basin, British Columbia, using a semi-distributed conceptual hydrological model coupled with a glacier response model. Mass balance data were used to constrain model parameters. Climate scenarios included a continuation of the current climate and two transient GCM scenarios with greenhouse gas forcing. Modelled glacier mass balance was used to re-scale the glacier every decade using a volume-area scaling relation. Glacier area and summer streamflow declined strongly even under the steadyclimate scenario, with the glacier retreating to a new equilibrium within 100 years. For the warming scenarios, glacier retreat continued with no evidence of reaching a new equilibrium. Uncertainty in parameters governing glacier melt produced uncertainty in future glacier retreat and streamflow response. Where mass balance information is not available to assist with calibration, model-generated future scenarios will be subject to significant uncertainty.
[1] Physically based models of glacier melt require fields of near-surface air temperature (T g ) and vapor pressure (e g ) for estimating turbulent heat exchanges. However, katabatic boundary layer (KBL) processes limit the effectiveness of standard interpolation or extrapolation routines for estimating T g and e g from regional weather station networks. Climate data collected from nine automatic weather stations operated over three ablation seasons at three glaciers in the southern Coast Mountains of British Columbia are analyzed in this study. On-glacier observations were compared to ambient values (T a and e a ) estimated from a regional network of off-glacier weather stations. Piecewise regressions of T g versus T a at each AWS site reveal (1) a critical threshold temperature (T*) that denotes the onset of katabatic boundary layer (KBL) development and (2) a temperature damping that is consistent at each site, but variable between sites. Variations in near-surface vapor pressure are related to processes of condensation or evaporation/ sublimation at the glacier surface, which are controlled by the vapor pressure gradient between the surface and the ambient air. Statistical relations with flow path lengths calculated from glacier digital elevation models are used to predict the strength of KBL effects on T g and e g , and examples of the approach for generating distributed fields of T g and e g are given.Citation: Shea, J. M., and R. D. Moore (2010), Prediction of spatially distributed regional-scale fields of air temperature and vapor pressure over mountain glaciers,
Abstract. In the Everest region, Nepal, ground-based monitoring programmes were started on the debris-free Mera Glacier (27.7 ∼ 5520 m a.s.l. confirm that the mean state of this glacier over the last one or two decades corresponds to a limited mass loss, in agreement with remotely-sensed regionwide mass balances of the Everest area. Seasonal mass balance measurements show that ablation and accumulation are concomitant in summer which in turn is the key season controlling the annual glacier-wide mass balance. Unexpectedly, ablation occurs at all elevations in winter due to wind erosion and sublimation, with remobilised snow potentially being sublimated in the atmosphere. Between 2009 and 2012, the small Pokalde Glacier lost mass more rapidly than Mera Glacier with respective mean glacier-wide mass balances of −0.72 and −0.23 ± 0.28 m w.e. yr −1 . Low-elevation glaciers, such as Pokalde Glacier, have been usually preferred for in-situ observations in Nepal and more generally in the Himalayas, which may explain why compilations of ground-based mass balances are biased toward negative values compared with the regional mean under the present-day climate.
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