Reconciling high-altitude precipitation in the upper Indus basin with glacier mass balances and runoff

Immerzeel, Walter W.; Wanders, Niko; Lutz, Arthur; Shea, J. M.; Bierkens, Marc F. P.

doi:10.5194/hess-19-4673-2015

Cited by 287 publications

(347 citation statements)

References 60 publications

(83 reference statements)

Supporting

Mentioning

319

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…In the far west of the HKH, a unimodal pattern of cyclonic winter precipitation can be found on the northern side of the Hindu Kush (Schiemann et al, 2008). The advection of differing air masses results in variable temperature lapse rates and, in some areas, seasonal precipitation regimes differing between arid valley bottoms, where most meteorological stations are situated, and adjacent high-elevation areas with ample precipitation (Hewitt, 2014;Immerzeel et al, 2015).…”

Section: Climate and Climate Change In The Hkhmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Furthermore, snowfall measurement is inherently difficult, with errors often in the range of 20-50 % undercatch (Rasmussen et al, 2012). Satellite-derived products such as the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) provide gridded precipitation in data-sparse regions but likely with reduced quality for snowfall and in high-elevation terrain (Derin et al, 2016;Immerzeel et al, 2015;Yin et al, 2008). As a consequence, gridded climate data are poorly characterized in the HKH (Bao and Zhang, 2013;Ménégoz et al, 2013;Xie et al, 2007), especially at high elevation, and corresponding maps (including Fig.…”

Section: Climate and Climate Change In The Hkhmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Review article: Inferring permafrost and permafrost thaw in the mountains of the Hindu Kush Himalaya region

et al. 2017

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract. The cryosphere reacts sensitively to climate change, as evidenced by the widespread retreat of mountain glaciers. Subsurface ice contained in permafrost is similarly affected by climate change, causing persistent impacts on natural and human systems. In contrast to glaciers, permafrost is not observable spatially and therefore its presence and possible changes are frequently overlooked. Correspondingly, little is known about permafrost in the mountains of the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) region, despite permafrost area exceeding that of glaciers in nearly all countries. Based on evidence and insight gained mostly in other permafrost areas globally, this review provides a synopsis on what is known or can be inferred about permafrost in the mountains of the HKH region. Given the extreme nature of the environment concerned, it is to be expected that the diversity of conditions and phenomena encountered in permafrost exceed what has previously been described and investigated. We further argue that climate change in concert with increasing development will bring about diverse permafrost-related impacts on vegetation, water quality, geohazards, and livelihoods. To better anticipate and mitigate these effects, a deepened understanding of high-elevation permafrost in subtropical latitudes as well as the pathways interconnecting environmental changes and human livelihoods are needed.

show abstract

Section: Climate and Climate Change In The Hkhmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Climate and Climate Change In The Hkhmentioning

confidence: 99%

Review article: Inferring permafrost and permafrost thaw in the mountains of the Hindu Kush Himalaya region

et al. 2017

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…A new historical precipitation dataset [52] that corrects for the underestimation of high altitude precipitation is used.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change Impacts on the Upper Indus Hydrology: Sources, Shifts and Extremes

et al. 2016

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The Indus basin heavily depends on its upstream mountainous part for the downstream supply of water while downstream demands are high. Since downstream demands will likely continue to increase, accurate hydrological projections for the future supply are important. We use an ensemble of statistically downscaled CMIP5 General Circulation Model outputs for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 to force a cryospheric-hydrological model and generate transient hydrological projections for the entire 21st century for the upper Indus basin. Three methodological advances are introduced: (i) A new precipitation dataset that corrects for the underestimation of high-altitude precipitation is used. (ii) The model is calibrated using data on river runoff, snow cover and geodetic glacier mass balance. (iii) An advanced statistical downscaling technique is used that accounts for changes in precipitation extremes. The analysis of the results focuses on changes in sources of runoff, seasonality and hydrological extremes. We conclude that the future of the upper Indus basin’s water availability is highly uncertain in the long run, mainly due to the large spread in the future precipitation projections. Despite large uncertainties in the future climate and long-term water availability, basin-wide patterns and trends of seasonal shifts in water availability are consistent across climate change scenarios. Most prominent is the attenuation of the annual hydrograph and shift from summer peak flow towards the other seasons for most ensemble members. In addition there are distinct spatial patterns in the response that relate to monsoon influence and the importance of meltwater. Analysis of future hydrological extremes reveals that increases in intensity and frequency of extreme discharges are very likely for most of the upper Indus basin and most ensemble members.

show abstract

“…They found that the Karakoram Range received maximum precipitation at an elevation of above 5500 m, whereas high elevation (4000 m) regions generate much of the UIB's flow [5,8]. However, only a few studies, e.g., [9,10] have monitored the climatic parameters, snow and ice processes and resultant hydrological regimes at these altitudes.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…In remote regions, such as the UIB, satellite remote-sensing techniques may be the only way to analyze spatiotemporal variations in snow cover [2,31]. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) snow products have been widely used in estimating the spatial extent of snow cover and in snowmelt runoff modeling applications [2,9]. Several studies have compared the relatively "coarse" resolution (500 m) MODIS data with the "fine" resolution (30 m) Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) data and ground observations in estimating snow cover; the MODIS presented satisfactory results at both low and high altitudes [2].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Investigating Snow Cover and Hydrometeorological Trends in Contrasting Hydrological Regimes of the Upper Indus Basin

2018

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Abstract:The Upper Indus basin (UIB) is characterized by contrasting hydrometeorological behaviors; therefore, it has become pertinent to understand hydrometeorological trends at the sub-watershed level. Many studies have investigated the snow cover and hydrometeorological modeling at basin level but none have reported the spatial variability of trends and their magnitude at a sub-basin level. This study was conducted to analyze the trends in the contrasting hydrological regimes of the snow and glacier-fed river catchments of the Hunza and Astore sub-basins of the UIB. Mann-Kendall and Sen's slope methods were used to study the main trends and their magnitude using MODIS snow cover information (2001)(2002)(2003)(2004)(2005)(2006)(2007)(2008)(2009)(2010)(2011)(2012)(2013)(2014)(2015) and hydrometeorological data. The results showed that in the Hunza basin, the river discharge and temperature were significantly (p ≤ 0.05) decreased with a Sen's slope value of −2.541 m 3 ·s −1 ·year −1 and −0.034 • C·year −1 , respectively, while precipitation data showed a non-significant (p ≥ 0.05) increasing trend with a Sen's slope value of 0.023 mm·year −1 . In the Astore basin, the river discharge and precipitation are increasing significantly (p ≤ 0.05) with a Sen's slope value of 1.039 m 3 ·s −1 ·year −1 and 0.192 mm·year −1 , respectively. The snow cover analysis results suggest that the Western Himalayas (the Astore basin) had a stable trend with a Sen's slope of 0.07% year −1 and the Central Karakoram region (the Hunza River basin) shows a slightly increasing trend with a Sen's slope of 0.394% year −1 . Based on the results of this study it can be concluded that since both sub-basins are influenced by different climatological systems (monsoon and westerly), the results of those studies that treat the Upper Indus basin as one unit in hydrometeorological modeling should be used with caution. Furthermore, it is suggested that similar studies at the sub-basin level of the UIB will help in a better understanding of the Karakoram anomaly.

show abstract

Reconciling high-altitude precipitation in the upper Indus basin with glacier mass balances and runoff

Cited by 287 publications

References 60 publications

Review article: Inferring permafrost and permafrost thaw in the mountains of the Hindu Kush Himalaya region

Review article: Inferring permafrost and permafrost thaw in the mountains of the Hindu Kush Himalaya region

Climate Change Impacts on the Upper Indus Hydrology: Sources, Shifts and Extremes

Investigating Snow Cover and Hydrometeorological Trends in Contrasting Hydrological Regimes of the Upper Indus Basin

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About