A gap in emission inventories of urban volatile organic compound (VOC) sources, which contribute to regional ozone and aerosol burdens, has increased as transportation emissions in the United States and Europe have declined rapidly. A detailed mass balance demonstrates that the use of volatile chemical products (VCPs)-including pesticides, coatings, printing inks, adhesives, cleaning agents, and personal care products-now constitutes half of fossil fuel VOC emissions in industrialized cities. The high fraction of VCP emissions is consistent with observed urban outdoor and indoor air measurements. We show that human exposure to carbonaceous aerosols of fossil origin is transitioning away from transportation-related sources and toward VCPs. Existing U.S. regulations on VCPs emphasize mitigating ozone and air toxics, but they currently exempt many chemicals that lead to secondary organic aerosols.

Abstract. Oxidation flow reactors (OFRs) using OH produced from low-pressure Hg lamps at 254 nm (OFR254) or both 185 and 254 nm (OFR185) are commonly used in atmospheric chemistry and other fields. OFR254 requires the addition of externally formed O3 since OH is formed from O3 photolysis, while OFR185 does not since O2 can be photolyzed to produce O3, and OH can also be formed from H2O photolysis. In this study, we use a plug-flow kinetic model to investigate OFR properties under a very wide range of conditions applicable to both field and laboratory studies. We show that the radical chemistry in OFRs can be characterized as a function of UV light intensity, H2O concentration, and total external OH reactivity (OHRext, e.g., from volatile organic compounds (VOCs), NOx, and SO2). OH exposure is decreased by added external OH reactivity. OFR185 is especially sensitive to this effect at low UV intensity due to low primary OH production. OFR254 can be more resilient against OH suppression at high injected O3 (e.g., 70 ppm), as a larger primary OH source from O3, as well as enhanced recycling of HO2 to OH, make external perturbations to the radical chemistry less significant. However if the external OH reactivity in OFR254 is much larger than OH reactivity from injected O3, OH suppression can reach 2 orders of magnitude. For a typical input of 7 ppm O3 (OHRO3 = 10 s−1), 10-fold OH suppression is observed at OHRext ~ 100 s−1, which is similar or lower than used in many laboratory studies. The range of modeled OH suppression for literature experiments is consistent with the measured values except for those with isoprene. The finding on OH suppression may have important implications for the interpretation of past laboratory studies, as applying OHexp measurements acquired under different conditions could lead to over a 1-order-of-magnitude error in the estimated OHexp. The uncertainties of key model outputs due to uncertainty in all rate constants and absorption cross-sections in the model are within ±25 % for OH exposure and within ±60 % for other parameters. These uncertainties are small relative to the dynamic range of outputs. Uncertainty analysis shows that most of the uncertainty is contributed by photolysis rates of O3, O2, and H2O and reactions of OH and HO2 with themselves or with some abundant species, i.e., O3 and H2O2. OHexp calculated from direct integration and estimated from SO2 decay in the model with laminar and measured residence time distributions (RTDs) are generally within a factor of 2 from the plug-flow OHexp. However, in the models with RTDs, OHexp estimated from SO2 is systematically lower than directly integrated OHexp in the case of significant SO2 consumption. We thus recommended using OHexp estimated from the decay of the species under study when possible, to obtain the most appropriate information on photochemical aging in the OFR. Using HOx-recycling vs. destructive external OH reactivity only leads to small changes in OHexp under most conditions. Changing the identity (rate constant) of external OH reactants can result in substantial changes in OHexp due to different reductions in OH suppression as the reactant is consumed. We also report two equations for estimating OH exposure in OFR254. We find that the equation estimating OHexp from measured O3 consumption performs better than an alternative equation that does not use it, and thus recommend measuring both input and output O3 concentrations in OFR254 experiments. This study contributes to establishing a firm and systematic understanding of the gas-phase HOx and Ox chemistry in these reactors, and enables better experiment planning and interpretation as well as improved design of future reactors.

We present the first study of the global impacts of a regional nuclear war with an Earth system model including atmospheric chemistry, ocean dynamics, and interactive sea ice and land components. A limited, regional nuclear war between India and Pakistan in which each side detonates 50 15 kt weapons could produce about 5 Tg of black carbon (BC). This would self-loft to the stratosphere, where it would spread globally, producing a sudden drop in surface temperatures and intense heating of the stratosphere. Using the Community Earth System Model with the Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model, we calculate an e-folding time of 8.7 years for stratospheric BC compared to 4-6.5 years for previous studies. Our calculations show that global ozone losses of 20%-50% over populated areas, levels unprecedented in human history, would accompany the coldest average surface temperatures in the last 1000 years. We calculate summer enhancements in UV indices of 30%-80% over midlatitudes, suggesting widespread damage to human health, agriculture, and terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Killing frosts would reduce growing seasons by 10-40 days per year for 5 years. Surface temperatures would be reduced for more than 25 years due to thermal inertia and albedo effects in the ocean and expanded sea ice. The combined cooling and enhanced UV would put significant pressures on global food supplies and could trigger a global nuclear famine. Knowledge of the impacts of 100 small nuclear weapons should motivate the elimination of more than 17,000 nuclear weapons that exist today.

No abstract

The sensitivity of the formation of secondary organic aerosol (SOA) to the estimated vapour pressures of the condensable oxidation products is explored. A highly detailed reaction scheme was generated for α-pinene photooxidation using the Generator for Explicit Chemistry and Kinetics of Organics in the Atmosphere (GECKO-A). Vapour pressures (<I>P</I>^vap) were estimated with three commonly used structure activity relationships. The values of <I>P</I>^vap were compared for the set of secondary species generated by GECKO-A to describe α-pinene oxidation. Discrepancies in the predicted vapour pressures were found to increase with the number of functional groups borne by the species. For semi-volatile organic compounds (i.e. organic species of interest for SOA formation), differences in the predicted <I>P</I>^vap range between a factor of 5 to 200 on average. The simulated SOA concentrations were compared to SOA observations in the Caltech chamber during three experiments performed under a range of NO_x conditions. While the model captures the qualitative features of SOA formation for the chamber experiments, SOA concentrations are systematically overestimated. For the conditions simulated, the modelled SOA speciation appears to be rather insensitive to the <I>P</I>^vap estimation method

Malignant melanomas often contain BRAF or NRAS mutations, but the relationship of these mutations to ambient UV exposure in combination with phenotypic characteristics is unknown. In a population-based case series from North Carolina, 214 first primary invasive melanoma patients in the year 2000 were interviewed regarding their risk factors. Ambient solar UV exposures were estimated using residential histories and a satellite-based model. Cases were grouped on the basis of BRAF and NRAS somatic mutations, determined using single-strand conformation polymorphism analysis and radiolabeled DNA sequencing, and the risk profiles of these groups were compared. Mutually exclusive BRAF-mutant and NRAS-mutant cases occurred at frequencies of 43.0% and 13.6% with mean ages at diagnosis of 47.3 and 62.1 years, respectively. Tumors from patients with >14 back nevi were more likely to harbor either a BRAF mutation [age-adjusted odds ratio (OR), 3.2; 95% confidence interval (95% CI), 1.4-7.0] or an NRAS mutation (age-adjusted OR, 1.7; 95% CI, 0.6-4.8) compared with patients with 0 to 4 back nevi. However, BRAF-mutant and NRAS-mutant tumors were distinctive in that BRAF-mutant tumors were characteristic of patients with high early-life ambient UV exposure (adjusted OR, 2.6; 95% CI, 1.2-5.3). When ambient UV irradiance was analyzed by decadal age, high exposure at ages 0 to 20 years was associated with BRAF-mutant cases, whereas high exposure at ages 50 and 60 years was characteristic of NRAS-mutant cases. Our results suggest that although nevus propensity is important for the occurrence of both BRAF and NRAS-mutant melanomas, ambient UV irradiance influences risk differently based on the age of exposure. The association of BRAF mutations with early-life UV exposure provides evidence in support of childhood sun protection for melanoma prevention.

[1] A one-dimensional atmospheric radiative transfer model has been extended to include scattering and absorption by multiple layers of snow. Empirical values for scattering coefficients for wet and dry snow and for absorption by impurities are derived from previous observations of snow albedo and irradiance attenuation depth, thus avoiding the uncertainties inherent in modeling the optical properties of ensembles of individual snow grains. Vertical profiles of spectral actinic flux within the model snowpack are computed and compared to those of down-welling spectral irradiance. The ratio of these two quantities is a strong function of solar zenith angle near the snow surface but rapidly approaches $0.25 (the isotropic limit) at depths greater than a few centimeters. Calculated rates of in-snow nitrate (NO 3 À ) photolysis confirm that this process can explain at least part of the enhanced NO x concentrations observed in the atmospheric boundary layer above snow.

Abstract. The volatile organic compound (VOC) distribution in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) and its evolution as it is uplifted and transported out of the MCMA basin was studied during the 2006 MILAGRO/MIRAGEMex field campaign. The results show that in the morning hours in the city center, the VOC distribution is dominated by non-methane hydrocarbons (NMHCs) but with a substantial contribution from oxygenated volatile organic compounds (OVOCs), predominantly from primary emissions. Alkanes account for a large part of the NMHC distribution in terms of mixing ratios. In terms of reactivity, NMHCs also dominate overall, especially in the morning hours. However, in the afternoon, as the boundary layer lifts and air is mixed and aged within the basin, the distribution changes as secondary products are formed. The WRF-Chem (Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry) model and MOZART (Model for Ozone and Related chemical Tracers) were able to approximate the observed MCMA daytime patterns and abCorrespondence to: E. C. Apel (apel@ucar.edu) solute values of the VOC OH reactivity. The MOZART model is also in agreement with observations showing that NMHCs dominate the reactivity distribution except in the afternoon hours. The WRF-Chem and MOZART models showed higher reactivity than the experimental data during the nighttime cycle, perhaps indicating problems with the modeled nighttime boundary layer height.A northeast transport event was studied in which air originating in the MCMA was intercepted aloft with the Department of Energy (DOE) G1 on 18 March and downwind with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) C130 one day later on 19 March. A number of identical species measured aboard each aircraft gave insight into the chemical evolution of the plume as it aged and was transported as far as 1000 km downwind; ozone was shown to be photochemically produced in the plume. The WRF-Chem and MOZART models were used to examine the spatial extent and temporal evolution of the plume and to help interpret the observed OH reactivity. The model results generally showed good agreement with experimental results for the total VOC OH reactivity downwind and gave insight into the distributions of VOC chemical classes. A box model with Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. 2354 E. C. Apel et al.: Chemical evolution of volatile organic compounds detailed gas phase chemistry (NCAR Master Mechanism), initialized with concentrations observed at one of the ground sites in the MCMA, was used to examine the expected evolution of specific VOCs over a 1-2 day period. The models clearly supported the experimental evidence for NMHC oxidation leading to the formation of OVOCs downwind, which then become the primary fuel for ozone production far away from the MCMA.