[1] We analyze present-day and future carbon monoxide (CO) simulations in 26 state-ofthe-art atmospheric chemistry models run to study future air quality and climate change. In comparison with near-global satellite observations from the MOPITT instrument and local surface measurements, the models show large underestimates of Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropical CO, while typically performing reasonably well elsewhere. The results suggest that year-round emissions, probably from fossil fuel burning in east Asia and seasonal biomass burning emissions in south-central Africa, are greatly underestimated in current inventories such as IIASA and EDGAR3.2. Variability among models is large, likely resulting primarily from intermodel differences in representations and emissions of nonmethane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) and in hydrologic cycles, which affect OH and soluble hydrocarbon intermediates. Global mean projections of the 2030 CO response to emissions changes are quite robust. Global mean midtropospheric (500 hPa) CO increases by 12.6 ± 3.5 ppbv (16%) for the high-emissions (A2) scenario, by 1.7 ± 1.8 ppbv (2%) for the midrange (CLE) scenario, and decreases by 8.1 ± 2.3 ppbv (11%) for the low-emissions (MFR) scenario. Projected 2030 climate changes decrease global 500 hPa CO by 1.4 ± 1.4 ppbv. Local changes can be much larger. In response to climate change, substantial effects are seen in the tropics, but intermodel variability is quite large. The regional CO responses to emissions changes are robust across models, however. These range from decreases of 10-20 ppbv over much of the industrialized NH for the CLE scenario to CO increases worldwide and year-round under A2, with the 1 of 24 largest changes over central , southern Brazil (20-35 ppbv) and south and east Asia (30-70 ppbv). The trajectory of future emissions thus has the potential to profoundly affect air quality over most of the world's populated areas.Citation: Shindell, D. T., et al. (2006), Multimodel simulations of carbon monoxide: Comparison with observations and projected near-future changes,

We present EVAPORATION (Estimation of VApour Pressure of ORganics, Accounting for Temperature, Intramolecular, and Non-additivity effects), a method to predict (subcooled) liquid pure compound vapour pressure p 0 of organic molecules that requires only molecular structure as input. The method is applicable to zero-, monoand polyfunctional molecules. A simple formula to describe log 10 p 0 (T ) is employed, that takes into account both a wide temperature dependence and the non-additivity of functional groups. In order to match the recent data on functionalised diacids an empirical modification to the method was introduced. Contributions due to carbon skeleton, functional groups, and intramolecular interaction between groups are included. Molecules typically originating from oxidation of biogenic molecules are within the scope of this method: aldehydes, ketones, alcohols, ethers, esters, nitrates, acids, peroxides, hydroperoxides, peroxy acyl nitrates and peracids. Therefore the method is especially suited to describe compounds forming secondary organic aerosol (SOA).

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Abstract. Due to the scarcity of observational constraints and the rapidly changing environment in East and Southeast Asia, isoprene emissions predicted by models are expected to bear substantial uncertainties. The aim of this study is to improve upon the existing bottom-up estimates, and to investigate the temporal evolution of the fluxes in Asia over 1979-2012. To this purpose, we calculate the hourly emissions at 0.5 • × 0.5 • resolution using the MEGAN-MOHYCAN model driven by ECMWF ERA-Interim climatology. In order to remedy for known biases identified in previous studies, and to improve the simulation of interannual variability and trends in emissions, this study incorporates (i) changes in land use, including the rapid expansion of oil palms, (ii) meteorological variability according to ERA-Interim, (iii) long-term changes in solar radiation (dimming/brightening) constrained by surface network radiation measurements, and (iv) recent experimental evidence that South Asian tropical forests are much weaker isoprene emitters than previously assumed, and on the other hand, that oil palms have a strong isoprene emission capacity. These effects lead to a significant lowering (factor of 2) in the total isoprene fluxes over the studied domain, and to emission reductions reaching a factor of 3.5 in Southeast Asia. The bottom-up annual isoprene emissions for 2005 are estimated at 7.0, 4.8, 8.3, and 2.9 Tg in China, India, Indonesia and Malaysia, respectively. The isoprene flux anomaly over the whole domain and studied period is found to be strongly correlated with the Oceanic Niño Index (r = 0.73), with positive (negative) anomalies related to El Niño (La Niña) years.Changes in temperature and solar radiation are the major drivers of the interannual variability and trends in the emissions, except over semi-arid areas such as northwestern China, Pakistan and Kazakhstan, where soil moisture is by far the main cause of interannual emission changes. In our base simulation, annual positive flux trends of 0.2 % and 0.52 % throughout the entire period are found in Asia and China, respectively, related to a positive trend in temperature and solar radiation. The impact of oil palm expansion in Indonesia and Malaysia is to enhance the trends over that region, e.g., from 1.17 % to 1.5 % in 1979-2005 in Malaysia. A negative emission trend is derived in India (−0.4 %), owing to the negative trend in solar radiation data associated with the strong dimming effect likely due to increasing aerosol loadings.The bottom-up emissions are compared to field campaign measurements in Borneo and South China and further evaluated against top-down isoprene emission estimates constrained by GOME-2/MetOp-A formaldehyde columns through 2007-2012. The satellite-based estimates appear to support our assumptions, and confirm the lower emission rate in tropical forests of Indonesia and Malaysia. Additional flux measurements are clearly needed to characterize the spatial variability of emission factors better. Finally, a decreasing trend in the inferr...

Abstract. Stimulated by recent important developments regarding the oxidation chemistry of isoprene, this study evaluates and quantifies the impacts of different mechanism updates on the boundary layer concentrations of OH and HO 2 radicals using the IMAGESv2 global chemistry transport model. The model results for HO x , isoprene, NO, and ozone are evaluated against air-based observations from the GABRIEL campaign, conducted over the Guyanas in October 2005, and from the INTEX-A campaign over the Eastern US in summer 2004. The version 2 of the Mainz Isoprene Mechanism (MIM2, Taraborrelli et al., 2009) used as reference mechanism in our simulations, has been modified to test (i) the artificial OH recycling proposed by , (ii) the epoxide formation mechanism proposed by Paulot et al. (2009b), and finally (iii) the HO x regeneration of the Leuven Isoprene Mechanism (LIM0) proposed by Peeters et al. (2009);Peeters and Müller (2010). The simulations show that the LIM0 scheme holds by far the largest potential impact on HO x concentrations over densely vegetated areas in the Tropics as well as at mid-latitudes. Strong increases, by up to a factor of 4 in the modelled OH concentrations, and by a factor of 2.5-3 in the HO 2 abundances are estimated through the LIM0 mechanism compared to the traditional isoprene degradation schemes. Comparatively much smaller OH increases (<25%) are associated with the implementation of the mechanism of Paulot et al. (2009b); moreover, the global production of epoxides is strongly suppressed (by a factor of 4) when the LIM0 scheme is combined Correspondence to: T. Stavrakou (jenny@aeronomie.be) with this mechanism. Hydroperoxy-aldehydes (HPALDs) are found to be major first-generation products in the oxidation of isoprene by OH, with a combined globally averaged yield of 50-60%. The use of the LIM0 chemistry in the global model allows for reconciling the model with the observed concentrations at a satisfactory level, compared to the other tested mechanisms, as the observed averaged mixing ratios of both OH and HO 2 in the boundary layer can be reproduced to within 30%. In spite of the remaining uncertainties in the theoretically-predicted rates of critical radical reactions leading to the formation of HPALDs, and even more in the subsequent degradation of these new compounds, the current findings make a strong case for the newly proposed chemical scheme. Experimental confirmation and quantification is urgently needed for the formation of HPALDs and for their fast OH-generating photolysis.