Multimodel simulations of carbon monoxide: Comparison with observations and projected near‐future changes

Abstract

[1] We analyze present-day and future carbon monoxide (CO) simulations in 26 state-ofthe-art atmospheric chemistry models run to study future air quality and climate change. In comparison with near-global satellite observations from the MOPITT instrument and local surface measurements, the models show large underestimates of Northern Hemisphere (NH) extratropical CO, while typically performing reasonably well elsewhere. The results suggest that year-round emissions, probably from fossil fuel burning in east Asia and seasonal biomass burning emissions in south-central Africa, are greatly underestimated in current inventories such as IIASA and EDGAR3.2. Variability among models is large, likely resulting primarily from intermodel differences in representations and emissions of nonmethane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs) and in hydrologic cycles, which affect OH and soluble hydrocarbon intermediates. Global mean projections of the 2030 CO response to emissions changes are quite robust. Global mean midtropospheric (500 hPa) CO increases by 12.6 ± 3.5 ppbv (16%) for the high-emissions (A2) scenario, by 1.7 ± 1.8 ppbv (2%) for the midrange (CLE) scenario, and decreases by 8.1 ± 2.3 ppbv (11%) for the low-emissions (MFR) scenario. Projected 2030 climate changes decrease global 500 hPa CO by 1.4 ± 1.4 ppbv. Local changes can be much larger. In response to climate change, substantial effects are seen in the tropics, but intermodel variability is quite large. The regional CO responses to emissions changes are robust across models, however. These range from decreases of 10-20 ppbv over much of the industrialized NH for the CLE scenario to CO increases worldwide and year-round under A2, with the 1 of 24 largest changes over central , southern Brazil (20-35 ppbv) and south and east Asia (30-70 ppbv). The trajectory of future emissions thus has the potential to profoundly affect air quality over most of the world's populated areas.Citation: Shindell, D. T., et al. (2006), Multimodel simulations of carbon monoxide: Comparison with observations and projected near-future changes,

Magnitude and seasonality of wetland methane emissions from the Hudson Bay Lowlands (Canada)

“…Chemical loss of methane is computed using a global 3-D archive of monthly average OH CH4 flux (2008) concentrations from a GEOS-Chem simulation of tropospheric chemistry. The mean tropospheric OH concentration is 10.8 × 10 5 molecules cm −3 , typical of current models (a global model inter-comparison by Shindell et al (2006) gives a mean value of 11.1 ± 1.7 × 10 5 molecules cm −3 ). The corresponding tropospheric lifetime of methylchloroform against oxidation by OH is 5.3 yr, within the range constrained by observations (Prinn et al, 2005).…”

The influence of megacities on global atmospheric chemistry: a modelling study

“…[10][11][12][13] MATCH-MPIC was involved in a multi-model intercomparison project [14] that formed part of the IPCC-AR4. Detailed comparisons were reported for CO, [15] NO x [16] and O 3 . [17] In this study we use the same model setup and emission scenarios as were used for this intercomparison project.…”

Global estimates of CO sources with high resolution by adjoint inversion of multiple satellite datasets (MOPITT, AIRS, SCIAMACHY, TES)

“…Despite long-standing interest in atmospheric CO and the abundance of data, our understanding of the CO budget remains inadequate, as illustrated by a recent CTM comparison exercise showing large disagreements between models and observations (Shindell et al, 2006). Simulation of the spatial, seasonal, and interannual variability of CO involves a complex interplay of sources, transport, and chemistry (Duncan et al, 2008).…”