Seismic observations in volcanically active calderas are challenging. A new cabled observatory atop Axial Seamount on the Juan de Fuca ridge allows unprecedented real-time monitoring of a submarine caldera. Beginning on 24 April 2015, the seismic network captured an eruption that culminated in explosive acoustic signals where lava erupted on the seafloor. Extensive seismic activity preceding the eruption shows that inflation is accommodated by the reactivation of an outward-dipping caldera ring fault, with strong tidal triggering indicating a critically stressed system. The ring fault accommodated deflation during the eruption and provided a pathway for a dike that propagated south and north beneath the caldera's east wall. Once north of the caldera, the eruption stepped westward, and a dike propagated along the extensional north rift.

[1] Rock-ice avalanches larger than 1 × 10 6 m 3 are high-magnitude, low-frequency events that may occur in all ice-covered, high mountain areas around the world and can cause extensive damage if they reach populated regions. The temporal and spatial evolution of the seismic signature from two events was analyzed, and recordings at selected stations were compared to numerical model results of avalanche propagation. The first event is a rock-ice avalanche from Iliamna volcano in Alaska which serves as a "natural laboratory" with simple geometric conditions. The second one originated on Aoraki/Mt. Cook, New Zealand Southern Alps, and is characterized by a much more complex topography. A dynamic numerical model was used to calculate total avalanche momentum, total kinetic energy, and total frictional work rate, among other parameters. These three parameters correlate with characteristics of the seismic signature such as duration and signal envelopes, while other parameters such as flow depths, flow path and deposition geometry are well in agreement with observations. The total frictional work rate shows the best correlation with the absolute seismic amplitude, suggesting that it may be used as an independent model evaluation criterion and in certain cases as model calibration parameter. The good fit is likely because the total frictional work rate represents the avalanche's energy loss rate, part of which is captured by the seismometer. Deviations between corresponding calculated and measured parameters result from site and path effects which affect the recorded seismic signal or indicate deficiencies of the numerical model. The seismic recordings contain additional information about when an avalanche reaches changes in topography along the runout path and enable more accurate velocity calculations. The new concept of direct comparison of seismic and avalanche modeling data helps to constrain the numerical model input parameters and to improve the understanding of (rock-ice) avalanche dynamics.Citation: Schneider, D., P. Bartelt, J. Caplan-Auerbach, M. Christen, C. Huggel, and B. W. McArdell (2010), Insights into rock-ice avalanche dynamics by combined analysis of seismic recordings and a numerical avalanche model, J. Geophys. Res., 115, F04026,

The number of large slope failures in some high-mountain regions such as the European Alps has increased during the past two to three decades. There is concern that recent climate change is driving this increase in slope failures, thus possibly further exacerbating the hazard in the future. Although the effects of a gradual temperature rise on glaciers and permafrost have been extensively studied, the impacts of short-term, unusually warm temperature increases on slope stability in high mountains remain largely unexplored.We describe several large slope failures in rock and ice in recent years in Alaska, New Zealand and the European Alps, and analyse weather patterns in the days and weeks before the failures. Although we did not find one general temperature pattern, all the failures were preceded by unusually warm periods; some happened immediately after temperatures suddenly dropped to freezing.We assessed the frequency of warm extremes in the future by analysing eight regional climate models from the recently completed European Union programme ENSEMBLES for the central Swiss Alps. The models show an increase in the higher frequency of high-temperature events for the period 2001-2050 compared with a 1951-2000 reference period. Warm events lasting 5, 10 and 30 days are projected to increase by about 1.5-4 times by 2050 and in some models by up to 10 times.Warm extremes can trigger large landslides in temperature-sensitive high mountains by enhancing the production of water by melt of snow and ice, and by rapid thaw. Although these processes reduce slope strength, they must be considered within the local geological, glaciological and topographic context of a slope.

The reawakening of Mount St. Helens after 17 years and 11 months of slumber was heralded by a swarm of shallow (depth <2 km) volcano-tectonic earthquakes on September 23, 2004. After an initial decline on September 25, seismicity rapidly intensified; by September 29, M d >2 earthquakes were occurring at a rate of ~1 per minute. A gradual transition from volcano-tectonic to hybrid and low-frequency events occurred along with this intensification, a characteristic of many precursory swarms at Mount St. Helens before dome-building eruptions in the 1980s. The first explosion occurred October 1, 2004, 8.5 days after the first earthquakes, and was followed by three other explosions over the next four days. Seismicity declined after each explosion and after two energetic noneruptive tremor episodes on October 2 and 3. Following the last explosion of this series, on October 5, seismicity declined significantly. Over the next ten days seismicity was dominated by several event families; by October 16, spacing between events had become so regular that we dubbed the earthquakes "drumbeats." Through the end of 2005 seismicity was dominated by these drumbeats, although occasional larger earthquakes (M d 2.0-3.4) dominated seismic energy release. Over time there were significant variations in drumbeat size, spacing, and spectra that correlated with changes in the style of extrusion at the surface. Changes in drumbeat character did not correspond to variations in magma flux at the conduit, indicating that drumbeat size and spacing may be more a function of the mechanics of extrusion than of the extrusion rate.

Surficial mass movements, such as debris avalanches, rock falls, lahars, pyroclastic flows, and outburst floods, are a dominant hazard at many volcanoes worldwide. Understanding these processes, cataloging their spatio-temporal occurrence, and detecting, tracking, and characterizing these events would advance the science of volcano monitoring and help mitigate hazards. Seismic and acoustic methods show promise for achieving these objectives: many surficial mass movements generate observable seismic and acoustic signals, and many volcanoes are already monitored. Significant progress has been made toward understanding, modeling, and extracting quantitative information from seismic and infrasonic signals generated by surficial mass movements. However, much work remains. In this paper, we review the state of the art of the topic, covering a range of scales and event types from individual rock falls to sector collapses. We consider a full variety of volcanic settings, from submarine to subaerial, shield volcano to stratovolcano. Finally, we discuss future directions toward operational seismoacoustic monitoring of surficial mass movements at volcanoes.