At present, in most persons with a 50 percent risk of autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease, imaging techniques are the only mode of reaching a diagnosis before symptoms appear. In such persons a negative ultrasonographic study during early adult life indicates that the likelihood of inheriting a PKD1 mutation is small. In the few who inherit a non-PKD1 mutation for polycystic kidney disease, renal failure is likely to occur relatively late in life.

To relate genetic variation in Graves' disease (GD) susceptibility to polymorphism at MHC loci, clinical and family studies were undertaken in eastern Hungary. Among 1980 relatives of 534 index patients, 2.9% of siblings, 2.7% of offspring, and 3.0% of parents had GD. HLA haplotype combinations in affected sibling pairs were determined in the present data and combined with data in the literature (12 sibling pairs from Farid 1981, 12 from Chan et al. 1980, and 15 from Sasazuki et al. 1983); 43, 23, and 1 affected sibling pairs shared, respectively, 2, 1, and 0 HLA haplotypes. This distribution is inconsistent with simple dominant inheritance, but is consistent with simple recessive inheritance of HLA-related susceptibility over a range of gene frequencies (0.2-0.4). A frequency of 0.3 gives the best fit and is consistent with penetrance of 7.1% for the recessive susceptibility genotype; the data, however, can accommodate penetrance values up to 16%. The distribution of HLA haplotypes in 33 families related disease susceptibility more strongly to DR than to other loci. The distribution of HLA-B8 genotypes in 256 patients was in close agreement with Hardy-Weinberg equilibrium proportions, also favoring recessive inheritance of MHC-related susceptibility. The probability that an individual will be affected with GD can be predicted, based on sex, HLA genotype, and family history. For example, 14.9% of DR3-positive women with an affected first degree relative are likely to be affected. These predictions can be tested as family data accumulate.

We evaluated the accuracy of ultrasonographic diagnosis of autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) and factors influencing its prognosis in members of 17 Newfoundland families originally described in 1984. In 10 families showing genetic linkage between ADPKD and markers for the PKD1 locus, rates of false negative ultrasonographic diagnosis are estimated as 36% below the age of 10 years and 8% or less thereafter, comparable with findings of genetic linkage studies of a subset of family members. At ages above 30 years, false negative ultrasonographic diagnosis of PKD1 disease is unlikely. In 2 families in which ADPKD is not co-inherited with PKD1 markers, only 11% of members aged less than 30 years had kidney cysts. The mean (SE) age of onset of ESRD is 56.3 (1.8) years for persons with the PKD1 form of ADPKD, and 68.7 (1.7) years for affected members of families in which ADPKD is not co-inherited with PKD1 markers (P = 0.01). In the PKD1 families, age of onset of end stage renal disease (ESRD) was unrelated to the sex of the affected individual but was earlier in persons inheriting the disease from their mothers than from their fathers (50.5 vs. 64.8 years, P = 0.004), consistent with an influence of genetic imprinting on disease progression. In females with a PKD1 mutation, onset of ESRD was not influenced by parity. In PKD1 families, resemblance in age of onset of ESRD was apparent; variation was less within than between families (F = 13.0, P less than 0.0001), and risk of false negative ultrasonographic diagnosis appears largely restricted to families in which ESRD occurs relatively late.

To appraise the prognosis of adult onset polycystic kidney disease (APKD), an inception cohort containing 140 subjects from 17 kindreds was assembled. Multiple renal cysts, demonstrable by ultrasonography, or clinical APKD, or both were present in 100 subjects. APKD was predicted in 32 subjects unavailable for ultrasonography and could not be excluded in eight deceased subjects. All had been at risk for endstage renal disease (ESRD) since birth. The probability of either developing ESRD, requiring dialysis or transplantation, or dying was estimated using a time-to-event analysis. The earliest age at which ESRD occurred was 36 years. For those with APKD, the probability of being alive and not having ESRD was 77% by age 50, 57% by age 58, and 52% by age 73 years. Excluding those predicted to have APKD changes these probabilities to 75, 53, and 47%, respectively. The serum creatinine values were less than 1.5 mg/dl for most subjects who had not developed ESRD. The prognosis for subjects with APKD is much better than most reports suggest and can be estimated from the time-to-event data presented.

Two cases of rotavirus gastroenteritis associated with neurological involvement, one with encephalitis (defined by abnormal neurological signs, cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) pleocytosis and detection of rotavirus genomic nucleic acid in the CSF) and one with a non-inflammatory encephalopathy (defined by abnormal neurological signs, an entirely normal CSF and detection of rotavirus genomic nucleic acid in the CSF), are presented and used as a basis to review and explore potential pathogenetic mechanisms, including direct viral replication within neurons and indirect effects of the newly described rotavirus 'enterotoxin'.

Few reports are available on the age-related risk of relatives of affected persons to manifest adult polycystic kidney disease (APKD). For 371 persons in 17 kindreds, at risk for APKD by virtue of having an affected first degree relative, we calculated the estimated probability of clinical diagnosis of APKD to be 0.011 by age 20, 0.041 by age 30, 0.115 by age 40, 0.299 by age 50, and 0.404 by age 60 years (expected = 0.50). Ultrasonographic examination of 172 asymptomatic persons at risk showed definite APKD in 60. The probability of ultrasonographic detection of asymptomatic APKD is estimated as 0.222, 0.657, and 0.855 at age 5, 15, and 25 years, respectively. The probability of having APKD following normal ultrasonogram results (conservatively assuming 90% specificity) is estimated as 0.46, 0.28, and 0.14 for persons at 50% risk in their first, second, or third decade. The marginal benefit of ultrasound as a diagnostic test for APKD for persons in the second or third decade is estimated as 0.37 and 0.41, respectively for a "positive" test and 0.22 and 0.37 for a "negative" test.

In 129 patients with Type 1 (insulin-dependent) diabetes mellitus, 100 healthy control subjects and 91 non-diabetic first degree relatives of Type 1 patients, we investigated variation in serum IgA, IgG and IgM concentrations with sex and HLA-B phenotype. Two patients with onset before the age of 15 years were completely IgA-deficient. One additional patient was completely IgG-deficient. Excluding these three cases, diabetic patients had serum IgA and IgM concentrations comparable to control subjects. IgG levels of patients were, however, significantly lower than those of control subjects (11.66 versus 12.69 g/l, p = 0.003). Non-diabetic first degree relatives of patients had IgG levels intermediate between those of diabetic patients and control subjects. There was some indication that IgA concentrations were lower in the 53 patients with HLA-B8 (1.91 versus 2.21 g/l, p = 0.038). No association was found between IgM or IgG levels and HLA phenotypes.

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