Crop phenology is fundamental for understanding crop growth and development, and increasingly influences many agricultural management practices. Water deficits are one environmental factor that can influence crop phenology through shortening or lengthening the developmental phase, yet the phenological responses to water deficits have rarely been quantified. The objective of this paper is to provide an overview of a decision support technology software tool, PhenologyMMS Vl.2, developed to simulate the phenology of various crops for varying levels of soil water. The program is intended to be simple to use, requires minimal information for calibration, and can be incorporated into other crop simulation models. It consists of a Java interface connected to FORTRAN science modules to simulate phenological responses. The complete developmental sequence of the shoot apex correlated with phenological events, and the response to soil water availability for winter and spring wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), winter and spring barley (Hordeum vulgare L.), corn (Zea mays L.), sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L.), proso millet (Panicum milaceum L.), hay/foxtail millet [Setaria italica (L.) P. Beauv.]. and sunflower (Helianthus annus L.) were created based on experimental data and the literature. Model evaluation consisted of testing algorithms using "generic" default phenology parameters for wheat (i.e., no calibration for specific cultivars was used) for a variety of field experiments to predict developmental events. Results demonstrated that the program has general applicability for predicting crop phenology and can aid in crop management.
Phenology is critical in simulating crop production and hydrology and must be sufficiently robust to respond to varying environments, soils, and management practices. Phenological algorithms typically focus on the air temperature response function and rarely quantify the phenological responses to varying water deficits, particularly for versions of the Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model (EPIC)‐based plant growth component used in many agroecosystem models. Three EPIC‐based plant growth components (Soil Water Assessment Tool [SWAT], Wind Erosion Prediction System [WEPS], and the Unified Plant Growth Model [UPGM]) have been incorporated into the spatially distributed Agricultural Ecosystems Services model [AgES], and only the UPGM includes a phenological response to varying water deficits. These three plant components were used to evaluate the phenological responses of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) to varying water deficits and whether having a water stress factor in UPGM improves the simulation of phenology. A 3‐yr irrigation study and a 4‐yr study across a rainfed landscape were used in the evaluation. Only the UPGM simulated all five of the developmental stagesmeasured. The UPGM was the only component that simulated a phenological response to variable water deficits, resulting in better prediction of phenology. For example, the RMSE (days) and relative error (RE, days) decreased and index of agreement (d) increased in predicting maturity from SWAT (RMSE = 18.4; RE = 9.2; d = 0.34) to WEPS (RMSE = 6.2; RE = 1.0, d = 0.63) to the UPGM (RMSE = 6.1; RE = 0.1; d = 0.70). Incorporating phenological responses to varying water deficits improves the accuracy and robustness of predicting phenology, which is particularly important in spatially distributed agroecosystem models.
Core Ideas
Phenology is critical in accurately simulating crop production and hydrology.
The AgES watershed model evaluated three EPIC‐based plant growth components.
Only UPGM was able to simulate phenological responses to varying water deficits.
The results promote more robust simulation of phenology in varying environments.
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