The results of further epidemiological studies of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) support the previous findings that the onset of exposure of the cattle population to a scrapie-like agent, sufficient to result in clinical disease, occurred in 1981/82. The onset of this exposure was related to the cessation, in all but two rendering plants, of the hydrocarbon solvent extraction of fat from meat and bone meal. A further possible explanation, related to the geographical variation in the reprocessing of greaves to produce meat and bone meal, was identified for the geographical variation in the incidence of BSE.

A comprehensive analysis of the bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) epidemic in cattle in Great Britain assesses past, present and future patterns in the incidence of infection and disease, and allows a critical appraisal of different culling policies for eradication of the disease.

In February 2001, foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) was confirmed in Great Britain. A major epidemic developed, which peaked around 50 cases a day in late March, declining to under 10 a day by May. By mid-July, 1849 cases had been detected. The main control measures employed were livestock movement restrictions and the rapid slaughter of infected and exposed livestock. The first detected case was in south-east England; infection was traced to a farm in north-east England to which all other cases were linked. The epidemic was large as a result of a combination of events, including a delay in the diagnosis of the index case, the movement of infected sheep to market before FMD was first diagnosed, and the time of year. Virus was introduced at a time when there were many sheep movements around the country and weather conditions supported survival of the virus. The consequence was multiple, effectively primary, introductions of FMD virus into major sheep-keeping areas. Subsequent local spread from these introductions accounted for the majority of cases. The largest local epidemics were in areas with dense sheep populations and livestock dealers who were active during the key period. Most affected farms kept both sheep and cattle. At the time of writing the epidemic was still ongoing; however, this paper provides a basis for scientific discussion of the first five months.

This study examines tissues from sequential-kill, time-course pathogenesis studies to refine estimates of the age at which disease-specific PrP (PrP Sc ) can first be detected in the central nervous system (CNS) and related peripheral nervous system ganglia of cattle incubating bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE). Such estimates are important for risk assessments of the age at which these tissues should be removed from cattle at slaughter to prevent human and animal exposure to BSE infection. Tissues were examined from cattle dosed orally with 100 or 1 g BSE-infected brain. Incubation period data for the doses were obtained from attack rate and the sequential-kill studies. A statistical model, fitted by maximum likelihood, accounted for the differences in the lognormal incubation period and the logistic probability of infection between different dose groups. Initial detection of PrP Sc during incubation was invariably in the brainstem and the earliest was at 30 and 44 months post-exposure for the 100 g-and 1 g-dosed sequential-kill study groups, respectively. The point at which PrP Sc in 50 % of the animals would be detected by immunohistochemistry applied to medulla-obex was estimated at 9.6 and 1.7 months before clinical onset for the 100 g-and 1 g-dosed cattle, respectively, with a low probability of detection in any of the tissues examined at more than 12 months before clinical onset. PrP Sc was detected inconsistently in dorsal root ganglia, concurrent with or after detection in CNS, and not at all in certain sympathetic nervous system ganglia.

A 12-month abattoir survey was conducted between January 1999 and January 2000, to determine the prevalence of faecal carriage of verocytotoxin-producing Escherichia coli O157 (VTEC O157) in cattle and sheep slaughtered for human consumption in Great Britain. Samples of rectum containing faeces were collected from 3939 cattle and 4171 sheep at 118 abattoirs, in numbers proportional to the throughput of the premises. The annual prevalence of faecal carriage of VTEC O157 was 4.7 per cent (95 per cent confidence interval 4.1 to 5.4) for cattle and 1.7 per cent (1.3 to 2.1) for sheep, values which were statistically significantly different from each other (P < 0.001). The organisms were recovered from both cattle and sheep slaughtered throughout the year and at abattoirs in all regions of the country, but the highest prevalence was in the summer. The most frequency recovered VTEC O157 isolates were phage types 2, 8 and 21/28 in cattle and 4 and 32 in sheep, the five most frequently isolated phage types associated with illness in people in Great Britain during the same period.

During the decade to 1999, the incidence of human infections with the zoonotic pathogen verocytotoxin-producing Escherichia coli O157 (VTEC O157) increased in England and Wales. This paper describes the results of a survey of 75 farms to determine the prevalence of faecal excretion of VTEC O157 by cattle, its primary reservoir host, in England and Wales. Faecal samples were collected from 4663 cattle between June and December 1999. The prevalence of excretion by individual cattle was 4.2 per cent (95 per cent confidence interval [CI] 2.0 to 6.4) and 10.3 per cent (95 per cent CI 5.8 to 14.8) among animals in infected herds. The within-herd prevalence on positive farms ranged from 1.1 to 51.4 per cent. At least one positive animal was identified on 29 (38.7 per cent; 95 per cent CI 28.1 to 50.4) of the farms, including dairy, suckler and fattening herds. The prevalence of excretion was least in the calves under two months of age, peaked in the calves aged between two and six months and declined thereafter. The phage types identified most widely were 4, 34 and 2, which were each found on six of the 29 positive farms.

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Following the identification of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in the British cattle population in 1986 epidemiological studies were launched. This paper provides an updated account of the epidemiological features of BSE from 1985, when the first cases, based on clinical histories, occurred, until 1990. The number of cases up to December 1989 represents an annual incidence of 3.9 confirmed cases per 1000 adult animals in Great Britain. Many more dairy herds were affected than beef suckler herds, a difference attributable to the difference in feeding practices between the two herd types. The geographical variation in incidence previously described has persisted with the highest incidence in the south and east of England. Other features of the epidemiology, including the low within-herd incidence, remained unaltered from the earlier findings. The results support the previously suggested hypothesis that the outbreak of BSE was due to the sudden exposure of the cattle population to a scrapie-like agent in 1981/82. There was no evidence of direct transmission between cattle during the period considered.