“…Studies of several past http://dx.doi.org/10. 1016/j.prevetmed.2014.09.010 0167-5877/Published by Elsevier B.V. outbreaks of FMD have revealed that the size and severity of an outbreak are associated with many factors, such as: the time to detection of the introduction of the virus (Gibbens et al, 2001;Tomassen et al, 2002;Carpenter et al, 2011), the density of surrounding livestock and herds, the extent of early disease spread, the effectiveness of disease control measures (Ferguson et al, 2001;Tomassen et al, 2002;Wilesmith et al, 2003;Cottam et al, 2008;Bessell et al, 2010), the patterns of animal movements (Nielen et al, 1996;Bates et al, 2001), the initial species infected (cattle vs. sheep vs. pigs), and the characteristics of the virus itself (Barnett and Cox, 1999;Kitching, 2002;Alexandersen et al, 2003;McLaws et al, 2009).…”