Originating in the equatorial Pacific, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has highly consequential global impacts, motivating the need to understand its responses to anthropogenic warming. In this Review, we synthesize advances in observed and projected changes of multiple aspects of ENSO, including the processes behind such changes. As in previous syntheses, there is an inter-model consensus of an increase in future ENSO rainfall variability. Now, however, it is apparent that models that best capture key ENSO dynamics also tend to project an increase in future ENSO sea surface temperature variability and, thereby, ENSO magnitude under greenhouse warming, as well as an eastward shift and intensification of ENSO-related atmospheric teleconnections -the Pacific-North American and Pacific-South American patterns. Such projected changes are consistent with palaeoclimate evidence of stronger ENSO variability since the 1950s compared with past centuries. The increase in ENSO variability, though underpinned by increased equatorial Pacific upper-ocean stratification, is strongly influenced by internal variability, raising issues about its quantifiability and detectability. Yet, ongoing coordinated community efforts and computational advances are enabling long-simulation, large-ensemble experiments and high-resolution modelling, offering encouraging prospects for alleviating model biases, incorporating fundamental dynamical processes and reducing uncertainties in projections.

2007. A high-resolution record of vegetation and climate through the last glacial cycle from Caledonia Fen, southeastern highlands of Australia.ABSTRACT: A blocked tributary has provided a rare site of long-term sediment accumulation in montane southeastern Australia. This site has yielded a continuous, detailed pollen record through the last ca. 140 000 years and revealed marked vegetation and environmental changes at orbital to sub-millennial scales. Radiocarbon and optically stimulated luminescence (OSL, or optical) ages provide some chronological control for the last ca. 70 000 years. Most of the sediment is inorganic but with well preserved pollen that accumulated under unproductive and probably largely ice-covered lake conditions. The lake was surrounded by low-growing plants with an alpine character. Exceptions include three discrete periods of high organic sedimentation in the basin and forest development in the surrounding catchment. The two major periods of forest expansion are related to the last interglacial and the Holocene, with the third, shorter period considered to represent an interstadial in the early part of Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3. The latter part of the last glacial period is characterised by abrupt sub-millennial, amelioration events that may relate to documented global oscillations emanating from the North Atlantic. There are systematic changes through the record that can be partly attributed to basin infilling but the progressive reduction and regional extinction of some plant taxa is attributed to a long-term trend towards climatic drying.

While the practice of reporting multi-model ensemble climate projections is well established, there is much debate regarding the most appropriate methods of evaluating model performance, for the purpose of eliminating and/or weighting models based on skill. The CMIP3 model evaluation undertaken by the Pacific Climate Change Science Program (PCCSP) is presented here. This includes a quantitative assessment of the ability of the models to simulate 3 climate variables: (1) surface air temperature, (2) precipitation and (3) surface wind); 3 climate features: (4) the South Pacific Convergence Zone, (5) the Intertropical Convergence Zone and (6) the West Pacific Monsoon; as well as (7) the El Niño Southern Oscillation, (8) spurious model drift and (9) the long term warming signal. For each of 1 to 9, it is difficult to identify a clearly superior subset of models, but it is generally possible to isolate particularly poor performing models. Based on this analysis, we recommend that the following models be eliminated from the multi-model ensemble, for the purposes of calculating PCCSP climate projections: INM-CM3.0, PCM and GISS-EH (consistently poor performance on 1 to 9); INGV-SXG (strong model drift); GISS-AOM and GISS-ER (poor ENSO simulation, which was considered a critical aspect of the tropical Pacific climate). Since there are relatively few studies in the peer reviewed literature that have attempted to combine metrics of model performance pertaining to such a wide variety of climate processes and phenomena, we propose that the approach of the PCCSP could be adapted to any region and set of climate model simulations. KEY WORDS: Climate model evaluation · Regional climate projections · CMIP3 · PacificResale or republication not permitted without written consent of the publisher

A semi-automatic extractor was developed which processes 12 urines at a time to a stage where 'total' oestrogens can be measured by colorimetry using the Kober reaction (late pregnancy urines) or by fluorimetry using the Kober\p=m-\Ittrich procedure (non-pregnancy and early pregnancy urines). One worker can complete 12 analyses in 3\ m=1/ 2\ hr. or 24\p=n-\36 in a working day. The results obtained at oestrogen levels above 1 mg./24-hr. urine were the same as those obtained by a method specific for oestriol. The results obtained from non-pregnancy urines were compared with the sums of oestriol, oestrone and oestradiol obtained by the method of Brown (1955). The mean ratio (\ m=+-\ s.d.) of the two values was 1\m=.\22 \ m=+-\ 0\m=.\31. The comparisons indicated that the short procedure was the more reliable method at levels below 5 \ g=m\ g. / 24-hr. urine. Values for normal subjects are given. The methods appear to be entirely suitable for assessing oestrogen production by the ovaries, testes, adrenals and placenta.

A set of 27 global climate models from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) ensemble are assessed for their performance for the purpose of making future climate projection studies in the western tropical Pacific and differences to Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP3) are assessed. The CMIP5 models show some improvements upon CMIP3 in the simulation of the climate in the western tropical Pacific in the late 20th century. There are fewer CMIP5 models with very poor skill scores than in CMIP3 for some measures and a small group of the well-performing models in CMIP5 have lower biases than in an equivalent group from CMIP3. These best-performing models could be particularly informative for studying certain climate sensitivities and feedbacks in the region. There is evidence to reject one model as unsuitable for making regional climate projections in the region, and another two models unsuitable for analysis of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ). However, while there have been improvements, many of the systematic model biases in the mean climate in CMIP3 are also present in the CMIP5 models. They are primarily related to the shape of the transition between the Indo-Pacific warm pool and equatorial cold tongue, and the associated biases in the position and orientation of the SPCZ and Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone, as well as in the spatial pattern, variability and teleconnections of the West Pacific monsoon, and the simulation of El Niño Southern Oscillation. Overall, the results show that careful interpretation and consideration of biases is required when using CMIP5 outputs for generating regional climate projections for the western tropical Pacific, particularly at the country scale, just as there was with CMIP3.