Goal: In this paper, a binomial model is proposed to evaluate the option of deferring an investment and expanding the operational scale of a forest-based company that will perform the de-duplication of Pinus sp. and will market packaging for storage and transportation of vegetables.
Design/Methodology/Approach: The proposed model measured the options of deferring an investment and expanding the operational scale of the forest-based company. In this perspective, the model of evaluation used was the binomial model in discrete time using the Real Options.
Results: It was observed that the inclusion of management flexibilities in the decision making process has added value to the investment project; therefore, the project of investments in real assets proved to be economically feasible.
Limitations of the investigation: The studies that address the corporate finance framework based on real data are a restrictive factor, due to the lack of collaboration of companies, that is, the availability of information that is usually classified.
Practical implications: The study was based on the real data of a company; therefore, it can be adopted as a stimulus to the Real Options approach to the decision making of entrepreneurs or researchers.
Originality/value: The focus of the study was to contemplate the managerial flexibilities of an industry of the secondary sector of the Brazilian economy, which performs the unfolding of wood, demonstrating the innovation of the technique approach used in this market segment.
The investment projects evaluation in real assets is essential for decision making; however, undoubtedly, it is a process whose components have interdependent relationships, which generate uncertainties that can lead to the wrong acceptance or rejection of the investment. This study aimed to apply the Monte Carlo simulation to the risk incorporation into the economic and financial evaluation of an investment project in mineral assets under conditions of uncertainties, with a view to the obtained returns measurement. Thus, the evaluation was based on the projection of discounted cash flow, which allowed the adoption of methods commonly used to evaluate real assets that consider the time value of the money. The economicfinancial risk incorporation was performed using a stochastic and dynamic mathematical model, and the Monte Carlo method was used to generate values from probability distributions. The results showed that the investment project in mineral assets is economically feasible by adding value to investors.
Um projeto de investimento tem seu mérito determinado a partir de uma análise financeira alicerçada em dados plausíveis. Esta análise inicializa-se na contabilização de custos, os quais, posteriormente, são considerados sob a ótica quantitativa. Desta forma, o objetivo do trabalho foi analisar a viabilidade financeira do processo de desdobro da madeira Pinus ssp. em uma indústria de base florestal localizada no Sudoeste do Estado de São Paulo. Primeiramente, foram calculados todos custos envolvidos neste processo, além do investimento realizado em ativos imobilizados. Por conseguinte, o fluxo de caixa descontado foi projetado para um horizonte de dez anos. Utilizou-se na análise financeira os métodos tradicionais de análise de investimentos; valor presente líquido, taxa interna de retorno e o custo anual uniforme equivalente. Os resultados obtidos permitem concluir que o projeto de investimento é viável financeiramente, por apresentar rentabilidade XXXVII ENCONTRO NACIONAL DE ENGENHARIA DE PRODUCAO "A Engenharia de Produção e as novas tecnologias produtivas: indústria 4.0, manufatura aditiva e outras abordagens avançadas de produção"
Comumente as empresas elaboram os fluxos de caixa com projeções limitadas ao horizonte de tempo que assegurem um planejamento financeiro plausível. Contudo, estas projeções não permitem contemporizar tomadas de decisões que possam ser essenciais para a constância no mercado. Uma maneira para contornar esta deficiência, que é inerente aos projetos de investimentos em ativos reais, é a adoção de modelos dinâmicos que permitam flexibilizar o gerenciamento destes projetos. Diante disso, a Teoria das Opções Reais foi utilizada para avaliar os investimentos de capital de um projeto destinado ao processamento de laranja com a possibilidade de alteração da escala operacional. Os resultados demonstraram que a aplicação da Teoria das Opções Reais permitiu quantificar o valor adicional do projeto de investimentos aumentando o valor da indústria em 67%.
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