In order to evaluate the present distribution patterns of salmonids and their potential effects on native fish, we sampled 11 large lakes and 105 streams, encompassing a total of 13 main hydrographic watersheds of southern Chile (39 o to 52 o S). Overall, trout (Salmo trutta and Oncorhynchus mykiss) accounted for more than 60 % of total fish abundance and more than 80 % of total biomass, while 40 % of the streams sampled did not have native fish. Salmon, introduced for aquaculture, such as O. kisutch, Salmo salar, and O. tshawytscha, were only present in lakes with salmon farming and did not seem to be reproducing naturally in affluent streams. We tested the effect of river geographic origin (Andes mountains, central valley, or Coastal range) on fish abundance and found that rainbow trout was more restricted to the Andean streams with higher water discharge, while brown trout was widely distributed and did not relate to any of several catchment attributes measured. The abundance of native fish was greater in lakes than in streams and the highest native fish biodiversity occurred in streams of the central valley. The most common native species were Galaxias maculatus, G. platei, Brachygalaxias bullocki, Aplochiton zebra and Basilichthys australis. Streams with higher conductivity, larger pool areas, more fine sediments, and low brown trout densities were more suitable for native fish. Thus, catchments with higher anthropogenic disturbance appeared as refuges for native species. Given the descriptive nature of our study we can only presume the negative impacts of trout and salmon on native fish; an effect which should be superimposed on biogeographical conditioning of present distribution. Yet based on the present abundance and distribution patterns of salmonids and native fish, negative effects are very likely. Conservation of native fish biodiversity in central valley streams, far from protected areas or national parks and fully exposed to human perturbations represents a great challenge. We propose to enhance conservation by exerting a stronger sport fishing pressure on trout in those streams.

Worldwide, lack of data on stream temperature has motivated the use of regression-based statistical models to predict stream temperatures based on more widely available data on air temperatures. Such models have been widely applied to project responses of stream temperatures under climate change, but the performance of these models has not been fully evaluated. To address this knowledge gap, we examined the performance of two widely used linear and nonlinear regression models that predict stream temperatures based on air temperatures. We evaluated model performance and temporal stability of model parameters in a suite of regulated and unregulated streams with 11-44 years of stream temperature data. Although such models may have validity when predicting stream temperatures within the span of time that corresponds to the data used to develop them, model predictions did not transfer well to other time periods. Validation of model predictions of most recent stream temperatures, based on air temperature-stream temperature relationships from previous time periods often showed poor performance when compared with observed stream temperatures. Overall, model predictions were less robust in regulated streams and they frequently failed in detecting the coldest and warmest temperatures within all sites. In many cases, the magnitude of errors in these predictions falls within a range that equals or exceeds the magnitude of future projections of climate-related changes in stream temperatures reported for the region we studied (between 0.5 and 3.0°C by 2080). The limited ability of regression-based statistical models to accurately project stream temperatures over time likely stems from the fact that underlying processes at play, namely the heat budgets of air and water, are distinctive in each medium and vary among localities and through time.

1. Even though intensive aquaculture production of salmonids in lakes occurs in many locations around the world published studies on the survival and reproductive success of escaped cultured salmonids in freshwater ecosystems are not common. A recent expansion of aquaculture in Chile has led it to become the world's second largest producer of cultured salmonids. 2. We document the recent history of escaped and self-sustaining salmonid populations over a wide spatial scale and a long temporal scale in Chilean Patagonian lakes. Our hypotheses are that salmonid density in lakes will be higher where there is intensive aquaculture, due to greater numbers of potential escapees. Secondly, if non-native salmonids have adverse impacts on native fishes, increases in the abundance of non-native species should be associated with decreases in relative abundance of native species. Finally, if the first two hypotheses are correct we anticipate that diets of salmonids may show evidence of predation on native fishes, diet overlap with native species, and evidence of the influence of feed from aquaculture operations in the diets of salmonids and native fishes. 3. We sampled six lakes with gill nets from 1992 to 2001. Our results show that the relative abundance of free-living salmonids is closely related to the level of fish farming production. Salmonids are the top predators and in lakes with fish farming the main prey item is native fishes. The relative abundance of native fishes has decreased, most likely due to predation by salmonids. 4. Our study contributes to the understanding of the effects of non-native salmonids in oligotrophic lakes, and it provides a starting point to judge the establishment of new fish farming sites in lakes around the world.

[1] Temperature is a fundamentally important driver of ecosystem processes in streams. Recent warming of terrestrial climates around the globe has motivated concern about consequent increases in stream temperature. More specifically, observed trends of increasing air temperature and declining stream flow are widely believed to result in corresponding increases in stream temperature. Here, we examined the evidence for this using long-term stream temperature data from minimally and highly human-impacted sites located across the Pacific continental United States. Based on hypothesized climate impacts, we predicted that we should find warming trends in the maximum, mean and minimum temperatures, as well as increasing variability over time. These predictions were not fully realized. Warming trends were most prevalent in a small subset of locations with longer time series beginning in the 1950s. More recent series of observations exhibited fewer warming trends and more cooling trends in both minimally and highly human-influenced systems. Trends in variability were much less evident, regardless of the length of time series. Based on these findings, we conclude that our perspective of climate impacts on stream temperatures is clouded considerably by a lack of long-term data on minimally impacted streams, and biased spatio-temporal representation of existing time series. Overall our results highlight the need to develop more mechanistic, process-based understanding of linkages between climate change, other human impacts and stream temperature, and to deploy sensor networks that will provide better information on trends in stream temperatures in the future. Citation: Arismendi, I., S. L. Johnson, J. B.Dunham, R. Haggerty, and D. Hockman-Wert (2012), The paradox of cooling streams in a warming world: Regional climate trends do not parallel variable local trends in stream temperature in the Pacific continental United States, Geophys.

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