By the beginning of the current century, there was heightened recognition that the Caribbean is highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change. Yet, there was very little climate change science information for the region and at the scale of the small islands that make up most of the region. To fill the gap, a group of regional scientists representing three institutions and four territories (Barbados, Belize, Cuba, and Jamaica) initiated a project to provide dynamically downscaled climate change information for the Caribbean. The Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS)-Caribbean initiative was premised on a shared workload with goals to build regional capacity to provide climate change information for the region from within the region, to provide much needed climate information in the shortest possible time frame, and to create a platform for sharing the information as widely as possible. Ten years later offers the opportunity for retrospection and evaluation, particularly since a phase 2 initiative is being formulated. By both accident and design, the legacies of the PRECIS-Caribbean initiative include i) the positioning of the Caribbean to pose and answer for itself some of the emerging second-generation climate change questions; ii) the emergence of a regional template for capacity building in the sciences through cooperation; iii) an expanded regional capacity to undertake climate science; and iv) a significant body of climate change and climate science knowledge relevant to and at the scale of the Caribbean region.
The future climatic behavior of the wind resource in Cuba has not been studied in the past. This study presents a preliminary analysis of the behavior of wind speed using the regional climate model PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies) in highresolution scenarios of climate change SRES A1B (Special Report on Emissions Scenarios), driven with boundary conditions from the General Circulation Model ECHAM5 (European Centre/HAMburg climate model) and 6 of the 16 members of the set of perturbed physics HadCM3 (Hadley Center Coupled Model, version 3) global climate model. Changes in the distribution of wind speed for three periods of 30 years in the future
In this work, a post-processing module based on Cressman's method of objective analysis is added to the Wind Energy Simulation Toolkit in order to improve the accuracy of the numerical wind atlas of Cuba. Mean wind speed surface observations at 35 meteorological stations and mean wind speed observations at 10, 30, 50, and 100 m height above ground level collected at a network of 58 observation towers are assimilated in the Cressman analysis. Furthermore, the 3-year numerical wind atlas generated for the same period of time is considered as the first guess for the Cressman method. A new wind atlas of Cuba is generated and verified using observation records at 32 meteorological stations and 10 observation towers distributed over the country. In addition, the capability of the new post-processing scheme to adding information on the temporal variability of the wind resource is explored.
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