The PRECIS-Caribbean Story: Lessons and Legacies

Taylor, Michael A.; Centella, Abel; Charlery, John; Bezanilla, Arnoldo; Campbell, Jayaka D.; Borrajero, Israel; Stephenson, Tannecia S.; Nurmohamed, Riad

doi:10.1175/bams-d-11-00235

Cited by 8 publications

(14 citation statements)

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“…Model studies of Caribbean climate change have typically assessed changes in the mean state of some key variables. This approach is consistent with the initial pattern of studies done globally [1,2]. Future regional projections have been examined for surface temperature, rainfall, wind and wind shear, sea level rise, and sea surface temperature for the middle to end of century [3][4][5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12][13].…”

Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 67%

“…Simulations that have been undertaken using the PRECIS model have been part of a regional initiative known as the PRECIS-Caribbean Project that seeks to generate dynamically downscaled climate change information for the Caribbean region. A detailed overview of the project is described by [1].…”

Section: Model Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The results suggest increases in annual and seasonal land and ocean surface temperatures of 0.6 to 4.0 ∘ C; annual changes in rainfall ranging between −50 and +13.7% with a robust summer drying; higher vertical wind shear but lower than 8 m/s during May to November; and sea level rise of approximately 18 to 59 cm, with indication of more pronounced levels due to improved model representation of polar dynamics and because of the Caribbean's proximity to the equator. A summary of variables, models, emission scenarios, and projections is presented by [1,14].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Characterization of Future Caribbean Rainfall and Temperature Extremes across Rainfall Zones

McLean

Stephenson

Taylor

et al. 2015

Advances in Meteorology

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End-of-century changes in Caribbean climate extremes are derived from the Providing Regional Climate for Impact Studies (PRECIS) regional climate model (RCM) under the A2 and B2 emission scenarios across five rainfall zones. Trends in rainfall, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature extremes from the RCM are validated against meteorological stations over 1979–1989. The model displays greater skill at representing trends in consecutive wet days (CWD) and extreme rainfall (R95P) than consecutive dry days (CDD), wet days (R10), and maximum 5-day precipitation (RX5). Trends in warm nights, cool days, and warm days were generally well reproduced. Projections for 2071–2099 relative to 1961–1989 are obtained from the ECHAM5 driven RCM. Northern and eastern zones are projected to experience more intense rainfall under A2 and B2. There is less consensus across scenarios with respect to changes in the dry and wet spell lengths. However, there is indication that a drying trend may be manifest over zone 5 (Trinidad and northern Guyana). Changes in the extreme temperature indices generally suggest a warmer Caribbean towards the end of century across both scenarios with the strongest changes over zone 4 (eastern Caribbean).

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Section: Introductionsupporting

confidence: 67%

Section: Model Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Characterization of Future Caribbean Rainfall and Temperature Extremes across Rainfall Zones

McLean

Stephenson

Taylor

et al. 2015

Advances in Meteorology

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“…Aside from Atlantic SST variability (to which specific humidity appears responsive), wind regimes over the Caribbean are therefore also have important influences on the region's weather extreme variability. It is possibly a future strengthening of the CLLJ (see Rauscher et al ., ; Campbell et al ., ; Martin and Schumacher, ; Taylor et al ., ) which accounts for the previously noted decrease in warming over the eastern Caribbean zone during the summer compared to the seasons preceding (March–May) and following (September–October).…”

Section: Summary and Discussionmentioning

confidence: 57%

Future Caribbean temperature and rainfall extremes from statistical downscaling

Stennett-Brown

Jones

Stephenson

et al. 2017

Intl Journal of Climatology

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The Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM) is used to investigate future projections of daily minimum and maximum temperature extremes for 45 stations and rainfall extremes for 39 stations across the Caribbean and neighbouring regions. Models show good skill in reproducing the monthly climatology of the mean daily temperatures and the frequencies of warm days, warm nights, cool days and cool nights between 1961 and 2001. Models for rainfall exhibit lower skill but generally capture the monthly climatology of mean daily rainfall and the spatial distribution of the mean annual maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD) and mean annual count of days with daily rainfall above 10 mm (R10). Future projections suggest an increase (decrease) in warm (cool) days and nights by 2071-2099 under the A2 and B2 scenarios relative to . An increase in CDD is suggested for most stations except some eastern Caribbean stations and Bahamas. Decreases in RX1 (monthly maximum 1-day precipitation), R10 and R95p (annual total rainfall above the 95th percentile) are also suggested for some northern Caribbean locations and Belize under the A2 scenario, compared to a mixture of increases and decreases for the eastern Caribbean. Atmospheric predictors used in SDSM correlate well with known oceanic and atmospheric drivers of Caribbean climate, e.g. the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) on a seasonal timescale. Atlantic sea surface temperatures and the Caribbean low level jet appear to have significant influence on Caribbean temperature and rainfall extremes.

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“…For example, results reported by Taylor et al . () with the PRECIS model (grid size 50 km) include wet biases over the Tropical Andes and dry biases over the Orinoco basin, especially during May–October. The 6‐year simulation with the RegCM4 model (grid size 50 km) conducted by Diro et al .…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Sea surface temperature‐related response of precipitation in northern South America according to a WRF multi‐decadal simulation

Martínez

Arias

Castro

et al. 2018

Intl Journal of Climatology

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Precipitation, low‐level flow and atmospheric moisture transport fields over the Intra‐Americas region from a Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) multi‐decadal simulation are presented. The period of analysis is 1982–2012, and the focus is on mean monthly states and their variability. WRF results are compared to global precipitation products and to the Interim Reanalysis from the ECWMF (ERA‐Interim). An analysis of the coupling between precipitation over northern South America and regional scale sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and winds within ERA‐Interim and WRF is also presented. Over land, precipitation biases in WRF are mostly positive, especially over Central America and northern South America. This bias is associated with an excess in atmospheric moisture convergence in WRF compared to ERA‐Interim, which in turn is related to stronger low‐level circulation structures and differences in the moisture transport field between WRF and ERA‐Interim at the regional scale. The largest differences in the flow are observed over the eastern Pacific, where the flow is correlated with precipitation over southern Mexico, Central America and northern South America during the boreal summer. During early winter, correlation patterns of WRF precipitation and SST anomalies over the tropical Pacific are substantially weaker over western Texas and northwestern South America compared to the coupling between the global precipitation products and observed SSTs. For northwestern South America, the low correlation seems to be associated to a lack of coupling between regional scale winds and SST anomalies. During the boreal summer, the coupling between Caribbean SSTs and precipitation over parts of Mexico and Central America is stronger in WRF compared to observation‐based products.

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The PRECIS-Caribbean Story: Lessons and Legacies

Cited by 8 publications

References 0 publications

Characterization of Future Caribbean Rainfall and Temperature Extremes across Rainfall Zones

Characterization of Future Caribbean Rainfall and Temperature Extremes across Rainfall Zones

Future Caribbean temperature and rainfall extremes from statistical downscaling

Sea surface temperature‐related response of precipitation in northern South America according to a WRF multi‐decadal simulation

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