A post-processing module based on Cressman’s analysis to improve the Wind Energy Simulation Toolkit mapping system

Abstract

In this work, a post-processing module based on Cressman's method of objective analysis is added to the Wind Energy Simulation Toolkit in order to improve the accuracy of the numerical wind atlas of Cuba. Mean wind speed surface observations at 35 meteorological stations and mean wind speed observations at 10, 30, 50, and 100 m height above ground level collected at a network of 58 observation towers are assimilated in the Cressman analysis. Furthermore, the 3-year numerical wind atlas generated for the same period of time is considered as the first guess for the Cressman method. A new wind atlas of Cuba is generated and verified using observation records at 32 meteorological stations and 10 observation towers distributed over the country. In addition, the capability of the new post-processing scheme to adding information on the temporal variability of the wind resource is explored.

Wind resource assessment of Cuba in future climate scenarios

“…Figure 17 shows the average wind given by the ensemble using the PRECIS model for different periods selected. In this figure, it can be seen that on the north coast the highest values are obtained in correspondence with other works on the estimation of wind resources in Cuba (Alonso et al, 2018;Roque et al, 2018). Figure 18 is as Figure 17, but for the wind power given in W m −2 .…”

“…Figure 8 shows the the mean wind speed for each of the periods selected with respect to the base period, taking into account the mean value of the ensemble, given the different scenarios. In this figure, a reinforcement of the magnitude of the wind can be seen, especially toward the second half of the century in regions where the largest wind resources in Cuba are currently located (Alonso et al, 2018; Roque et al, 2018). To assess the significance of this increase, the level of significance was calculated using the methodology described in section “Significance,” and the result is reflected in Figure 9.…”

“…In regions where the changes are significant, this variation will be added to the wind speed outputs of the Numerical Wind Atlas of Cuba generated by Alonso et al (2018) to estimate the values of wind speed in the three future periods. The values of wind speed in the mean wind speed map at 10 m ASL obtained by Alonso et al (2018) (Figure 19) are enhanced by the increase in wind speed for each one of the periods already discussed previously in this paper (Figure 10). This increase in the wind speed obtained by PRECIS model is more accurate than the forecast of the model itself, so by subtracting the future outputs from the outputs of the base period the systematic error of the model is canceled (see Figure 3).…”

“…This increase in the wind speed obtained by PRECIS model is more accurate than the forecast of the model itself, so by subtracting the future outputs from the outputs of the base period the systematic error of the model is canceled (see Figure 3). Then by adding this increase to the current mean wind (here we assume as obtained by Alonso et al (2018) in Figure 19), a better estimate of the values that wind speeds should reach in the next decades is obtained (Figure 20). Figure 20 shows the values of the wind speed in different future periods throughout the national territory (10 m height ASL), which has tremendous value for the wind energy industry in Cuba.…”

“…New Wind Atlas Cuba obtained by Alonso et al’s (2018) at 10, 30, 50, and 100 m height AGL (2007–2009). The values of the average wind speed are given in m s −1 .…”