Methodologies for quantitative risk assessment regarding CO 2 storage operations are currently scarce, mostly because of the lack of experience in this fi eld and the relatively signifi cant degree of uncertainty regarding the subsurface intrinsic properties and the processes occurring after the injection starts. This paper presents a practical approach designed to perform a quantitative risk assessment in an uncertain context. Our approach is illustrated by a realistic case study (Paris Basin, France), conceived to be representative of the level of information available in the early stages of a project. It follows the risk assessment principles from the international standards (ISO 31000:2009), which are adapted to account for the specifi cities and challenges of subsurface operations. After the establishment of the context of the specifi c case study, the main risks are identifi ed and we analyze two different risk scenarios: risk of brine leakage from an abandoned well and risk of subsurface use confl ict.These scenarios were selected to give a comprehensive overview of different types of analysis in terms of available data, modeling tools and uncertainty management methodologies. The main benefi t of this paper is to propose an approach, based on existing risk assessment standards, best practices, and analysis tools, which allows an objective quantitative risk analysis taking into account the uncertainties, and therefore enabling fully informed decision-making while evaluating risk acceptability.
Few commercial-scale carbon capture and storage (CCS) projects are currently operating in the world, with almost all in the USA and China. Despite a high number of CCS pilot-scale projects achieved in Europe, only two commercial-scale projects are operating today. The goal of this study is to present a case study in France to select a promising location to deploy a notable CCS pilot-scale project based on a multicriteria regional-scale approach. The methodology applied in this case study describes and assesses different aspects involved in CCS technology at the regional scale, and then an evaluation of economic key performance indicators (KPI) of CCS is carried out. The assessment at the regional scale gives an overview of where CCS could be applied, when CCS could be deployed and how to launch CCS considering the needs and concerns of stakeholders in the region. Technical aspects were mapped, such as the location of irreducible CO2 sources and long-lasting emissions and the location of storage resources and existing potential transport infrastructures. We identified the waste-to-energy and chemical sectors as the main CO2 sources in the region. An economic analysis of a hypothetical scenario of CCS deployment was elaborated considering three of the higher emitters in the region. A CCS scenario in the Paris Basin region with a deployment between 2027 and 2050 indicates a low CO2 cost per ton avoided between 43 EUR/t and 70 EUR/t for a cumulated total of 25 Mt and 16 Mt, respectively, of CO2 captured and stored for 26 years, including 7.7 Mt of CO2 from biomass (potential negative emissions). Storage maturity and availability of the resource are the most uncertain parameters of the scenario, although they are the key elements to push investment in capture facilities and transport. Geological storage pilot projects are mandatory to prove storage resource and should be located in strategic locations close to potential CO2 sources in case of confirmation of proven resources. Well-perceived pilot-scale projects are the first step to start engaging in deciding and investing in commercial-scale CCS projects.
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