Iklim merupakan salah satu penentu keberhasilan swasembda gula di Indonesia. Curah hujan merupakan salah satu unsur iklim yang sangat penting dalam budidaya tebu. Sehingga curah hujan menjadi faktor penting dalam memenentukan rendemen tebu yang dihasilkan. Salah satu faktor penting yang dapat mempengaruhi rendemen tebu adalah dosis pemupukan.Unsur hara yang diberikan pada tanaman tebu turut mempengaruhi kadar gula yang dihasilkan tanman tebu. Rendemen tebu adalah kadar kandungan gula didalam batang tebu yang dinyatakan dengan persen. PG Asembagoes adalah salah satu pabrik gula yang ada di Jawa Timur milik PTPN XI. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui pengaruh curah hujan dan pemupukan terhadap rendemen tebu di PG Asembagus Situbondo. Metode penelitian menggunakan analisi regresi dengan curah hujan dan pemupukan sebagai veriabel bebas dan rendemen tebu sebagai variabel terikat. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa curah hujan dan pemupukan secara simultan atau bersamaan berpengaruh signifikan terhadap rendemen tebu di PG. Asembagus dengan persamaan regresinya adalah y=4,373+0,0167Curah Hujan+0,0022Pemupukan dan besarnya koefisien determinasi 75,08%. Model regresi. ini diharapkan mampu memberikan rekomendasi serta kebijakan guna perbaikan produksi di PG Asembagus Situbondo.
Sugar is one of the strategic commodities in the Indonesian economy. The main raw material for making sugar in Indonesia comes from the sugar cane plant. Sugarcane is a seasonal plantation commodity crop, wherein one year there is only one harvest. Sugarcane productivity is largely determined by agro-climate, in addition to the cultivation technique factor. Apart from climatic factors, the area of milled sugarcane is strongly influenced by the price of sugar at the farmer level, especially 1-2 years before production. This study aims to determine the factors that affect the productivity of the sugarcane in Jember Regency which is poured into a mathematical model. The factors that are thought to affect sugar production in Jember Regency are rainfall (X1), number of rainy days(X2), planting area(X3), sugarcane production(X4), humidity (X5), and temperature(X6) from 1990-2020. The method used in solving this problem is a linear regression with detailed analysis to form an optimum mathematical model. The mathematical model obtained is Y = -5,192X
1
1,16
X
2
0,242
X
3
0,141
X
4
0,132
X
5
14,1
X
6
31,9. The results of the analysis are expected to be used as recommendations by the government to determine policies in increasing the productivity of sugarcane in Jember Regency.
The production of the sugar industry is increasing from year to year because of the national sugar production and consumption. To achieve the level of production that can meet these needs, the government has requested a national sugar self-sufficiency policy. Estimation of sugarcane production has a big influence on the company's policy considerations to determine further production results. This study aims to predict the production of sugar cane that will be obtained by the Asembagus sugar factory for the next five years. The data used to predict are data from 1979 to 2018 obtained from secondary data from Asembagus factory registration results. The method used is the Box-Jenkins ARIMA method by comparing the measurement of forecasting results with the trend and exponential smoothing methods. The appropriate forecasting result is the ARIMA model (1,1,1) because it has a smaller error value than using other methods. Forecasting results for 2019 are 42055.6 tons in 2020 predicted 43222.9 tons in 2021 predicted to produce 44090.7 tons, in 2022 predicted 44788.2 tons and in 2023 predicted sugarcane production of 45389.2 tons.
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