Groundwater contamination risk assessment for health-threatening compounds should benefit from a stochastic environmental risk assessment which considers the effects of biological, chemical, human behavioral, and physiological processes that involve elements of biotic and abiotic aquifer uncertainty, and human population variability. This paper couples a complex model of chemical degradation and transformation with movement in an aquifer undergoing bioremediation to generate a health risk analysis for different population cohorts in the community. A twostage Monte Carlo simulation has separate stages for population variability and aquifer uncertainty yielding a computationally efficient and conceptually attractive algorithm. A hypothetical example illustrates how risk variance analysis can be conducted to determine the distribution of risk, and the relative impact of uncertainty and variability in different sets of parameters upon the variation of risk values for adults, adolescents, and children. The groundwater example considers a community water supply contaminated with chlorinated ethenes. Biodegradation pathways are enhanced by addition of butyrate. The results showed that the contribution of uncertainty to the risk variance is comparable to that of variability. Among the uncertain parameters considered, transmissivity accounted for the major part of the output variance. Children were the most susceptible and vulnerable population cohort.
[1] In porous media, transverse dispersion plays a decisive role in the dilution of conservative solutes, the decay of concentration fluctuations, and the mixing of reactive solutes. One possible approach for measuring the transverse dispersivity of homogeneous isotropic porous media is based on the principle of Taylor-Aris dispersion, where the longitudinal macrodispersion coefficient is inversely proportional to the pore-scale transverse dispersion coefficient. Taylor-Aris dispersion requires a shear flow situation. To achieve the latter in porous media, we use a helix, as previously proposed, and also a cochlea, which is spiral-shaped cavity resembling the interior a nautilus shell. We obtain experimental breakthrough curves from conservative tracer experiments and compare them to results of numerical simulation. By fitting the model we obtain the values of transverse dispersivity in various tracer tests. In our experiments we investigate porous media with relatively uniform particle distributions. Estimates of the transverse dispersivity are obtained for each experiment, and the relative advantages of each device are discussed. The two devices yield similar results. The estimated ratio of transverse dispersivity to longitudinal dispersivity agrees with the higher ratios reported in the literature.
Nowadays, resilience has become an indispensable term in several aspects and areas of research and life. Reaching consensus on what actually constitutes “resilience,” “community,” and “community resilience” is still a task that guarantees a vivid exchange of opinions, sometimes escalating into debates, both in the scientific community and among practitioners. Figuring out how to practically apply resilience principles goes even a step further. This study attempts to circumvent the need for a universal agreement on the definition of “community resilience,” which may still be immature, if not impossible, at this time. We accomplish this by proposing a practical methodological approach with concrete methods on how to agree and implement commonly accepted community resilience principles in the context of technology development and pilot testing for disaster management. The proposed approach was developed, tested, and validated in the context of the Horizon 2020 EU-funded project Search and Rescue. Major aspects of the approach, along with considerations for further improvement and adaptation in different contexts, are addressed in the article.
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