Purpose During recent years, the nexus between unemployment and entrepreneurship has been examined in depth in developed and industrialised economies but rarely in developing economies. The purpose of this paper is to investigate such a relation in the case of 30 Iranian provinces from 2005Q2 to 2017Q4. Using both the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing and vector error correction method (VECM) Granger causality approaches, the findings show that a unidirectional short-run causal relationship from entrepreneurship to unemployment and vice versa was observed in 13 and 10 per cent of provinces, respectively. The authors also find evidence for unidirectional long-run causality in 77 per cent of provinces from unemployment to entrepreneurship, as well as 10 per cent of provinces from entrepreneurship to unemployment. Finally, the results confirm that in long-run, the “prosperity-pull” effects are considerably stronger than the “recession-push” effects in Iranian provinces. Design/methodology/approach The main target of this paper is to investigate the unemployment-entrepreneurship in the case of 30 Iranian provinces from 2005Q2 to 2017Q4 by using ARDL bounds testing and VECM Granger causality approaches. Findings The results confirm that in long-run, the “prosperity-pull” effects are considerably stronger than the “recession-push” effects in Iranian provinces. This finding reveals that the unemployment rate can be regarded as a critical instrument for hindering entrepreneurial activity by increasing the risk of business bankruptcy and pulling entrepreneurs out of self-employment. All these results must be taken into account in the construction of useful economic policies for the Iranian labour market. Originality/value The economic literature reveals that most empirical studies of the nexus between unemployment and entrepreneurship examined developed and industrialised economies and the analysis of such a relation for developing countries has not been considered by researchers. Thus, to fill this gap, this paper extends the current empirical literature by presenting new empirical evidence for the case of Iran, which has a developing economy.
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We examine the effects of oil prices on unemployment rates in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) over the period of 1991–2017. Using the panel nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (panel NARDL) model, the results show that in the long run, positive changes of oil prices exert a positive (increasing) impact on the unemployment rate. However, negative changes in oil prices have a significant decreasing effect on the unemployment rate in the MENA region. We also find that the short run changes in oil prices do not show a significant effect on unemployment rates. Our findings are robust to an alternative measure of oil rents per capita and in line with predictions of the resource curse hypothesis. Countries with higher dependency on natural resource rents experience, on average, a slower long run economic growth rate (and thus higher unemployment rates), compared with countries with lower dependency.
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