Purpose – solvency II framework regulates how much capital the European Union insurance companies must hold. The amount of necessary capital can be calculated using a standard formula or an internal model. On the basis of the review of other authors’ empirical research, the present paper aim at identifying factors that influence necessary capital and propos-ing necessary areas of improvement for the methodology of an internal capital model. Research methodology – to conduct the paper, the authors have used the extended literature review. Analytical methods and comparative methods have been used for the Baltic non-life insurance market analysis. Findings – the Baltic market does not use an internal model even for a major risk – premium and reserve risks. A review of the current literature findings shows that the main weakness of the standard formula is risk aggregation. Research limitations – identified factors apply to non-life insurance companies under the Solvency II framework with a focus on reserve risk. Practical implications – factors are identified that should be implemented in the internal model methodology. The paper will help avoid using internal models as only a modern risk management tool and improve risk profile accuracy. Originality/Value – improvements of the internal model methodology are proposed based on a literature review. The au-thors have identified the main directions, issues and improvement possibilities for reaching modern risk management.
The study gives an overview of the Baltic non-life insurance market. The purpose of the research is to summarise stability statistics on solvency ratios, risk profiles and capital surplus, which was contained in Solvency and Financial Condition reports (SFCR) in 2016 published first time by non-life insurance companies in European Union and Baltic market (Latvia, Estonia, and Lithuania). Solvency II came into effect in 2016, and these reports have been prepared using the new requirements of the Solvency II framework. All non-life insurance companies are required to have eligible own funds at least equal to solvency capital requirement (SCR) in order to avoid supervisory intervention (own funds divided by SCR are required to be at least 100 %). The SCR is based on well known risk measure value at risk with 99.5 % confidence level over a one-year time horizon. Baltic non-life insurance companies were strong capitalized (median 155 %) in 2016. It means that all Baltic companies can survive even if 1 in 200 years events have occurred although Baltic solvency coverage ratio is lower than the median ratio in European Union (209 %). For Latvian non-life insurance market, solvency ratio median is the lowest in European Union comparing by countries. The authors have analysed the historical development of the market and have calculated financial ratios, Gini’s concentration index, as well as dissimilarity index. The authors have investigated the current and future internal and external risks and issues for the Baltic non-life insurance market, such as political environment, low-yield environment, and market competition due to new mergers and acquisitions (M&A) activities, and a new rule for accounting for insurance companies IFRS17.
In applications tail dependence is an important property of a copula. Bivariate tail dependence is investigated in many papers, but multivariate tail dependence has not been studied widely. We define multivariate upper and lower tail dependence coefficients as limits of the probability that values of one marginal will be large if at least one of other marginals will be as large also. Further we derive some relations between introduced tail dependence and bivariate tail dependence coefficients. Applications have shown that the multivariate t-copula has been successfully used in practice because of its tail dependence property. Therefore, t-copula can be used as an alternative method for risk assessment under Solvency II for insurance models. We have paid attention to the properties of the introduced multivariate tail dependence coefficient for t-copula and examine it in the simulation experiment.
Solvency II framework regulates how much capital the insurance companies of the European Union must hold. Although the framework lasts four years, there is still place for improvements considering experience. The goals of the research are to propose an alternative capital model methodology using copulas for reserve risk and to show the case study of potential capital shift impact. To conduct the research, the authors have used the extensive literature review, analytical methods and modelling. Research scope is non-life insurance companies under the Solvency II framework with a focus on reserve risk. The research will help avoid that alternative models are only a modern risk management tool and add risk management reality. Higher capital surplus can be achieved if a copula approach is used for risk aggregation in the Baltic non-life market. The Baltic market does not use alternative capital requirement and internal models. Using an alternative model is the right insurer's approach in modern risk management.
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