Insight into how environmental change determines the production and distribution of cyanobacterial toxins is necessary for risk assessment. Management guidelines currently focus on hepatotoxins (microcystins). Increasing attention is given to other classes, such as neurotoxins (e.g., anatoxin-a) and cytotoxins (e.g., cylindrospermopsin) due to their potency. Most studies examine the relationship between individual toxin variants and environmental factors, such as nutrients, temperature and light. In summer 2015, we collected samples across Europe to investigate the effect of nutrient and temperature gradients on the variability of toxin production at a continental scale. Direct and indirect effects of temperature were the main drivers of the spatial distribution in the toxins produced by the cyanobacterial community, the toxin concentrations and toxin quota. Generalized linear models showed that a Toxin Diversity Index (TDI) increased with latitude, while it decreased with water stability. Increases in TDI were explained through a significant increase in toxin variants such as MC-YR, anatoxin and cylindrospermopsin, accompanied by a decreasing presence of MC-LR. While global warming continues, the direct and indirect effects of increased lake temperatures will drive changes in the distribution of cyanobacterial toxins in Europe, potentially promoting selection of a few highly toxic species or strains.

The aim of this study was to understand: (1) how environmental conditions can contribute to formation of Microcystis-dominated blooms in lowland, dam reservoirs in temperate climate-with the use of quantitative molecular monitoring, and (2) what is the role of toxic Microcystis genotypes in the bloom functioning. Monitoring of the Sulejow Reservoir in 2009 and 2010 in two sites Tresta (TR) and Bronislawow BR), which have different morphometry, showed that physicochemical conditions were always favorable for cyanobacterial bloom formation. In 2009, the average biomass of cyanobacteria reached 13 mg L(-1) (TR) and 8 mg L(-1) (BR), and in the second year, it decreased to approximately 1 mg L(-1) (TR and BR). In turns, the mean number of toxic Microcystis genotypes in the total Microcystis reached 1% in 2009, both in TR and BR, and in 2010, the number increased to 70% in TR and 14 % in BR. Despite significant differences in the biomass of cyanobacteria in 2009 and 2010, the mean microcystins (MCs) concentration and toxicity stayed at a similar level of approximately 1 μg L(-1). Statistical analysis indicated that water retention time was a factor that provided a significant difference between the two monitoring seasons and was considered a driver of the changes occurring in the Sulejow Reservoir. Hydrologic differences, which occurred between two studied years due to heavy flooding in Poland in 2010, influenced the decrease in number of Microcystis biomass by causing water disturbances and by lowering water temperature. Statistical analysis showed that Microcystis aeruginosa biomass and 16S rRNA gene copy number representing Microcystis genotypes in both years of monitoring could be predicted on the basis of total and dissolved phosphorus concentrations and water temperature. In present study, the number of mcyA gene copies representing toxic Microcystis genotypes could be predicted based on the biomass of M. aeruginosa. Moreover, MCs toxicity and concentration could be predicted on the basic of mcyA gene copy number and M. aeruginosa (biomass, 16S rRNA), respectively. Present findings may indicate that Microcystis can regulate the number of toxic genotypes, and in this way adjust the whole bloom to be able to produce MCs at the level which is necessary for its maintenance in the Sulejow Reservoir under stressful hydrological conditions.

Mechanisms behind expansion of an invasive cyanobacterium Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii have not been fully resolved, and different hypotheses, such as global warming, are suggested. In the East-Central Europe, it is widely occurring in western part of Poland but only in single locations in the East due to some limiting factors. Therefore, broad-scale phytoplankton survey including 117 randomly selected lakes in Poland and Lithuania was conducted. The results showed that C. raciborskii occurred widely in western part of Poland but was absent from other regions and Lithuania except one lake. The regions in which C. raciborskii was present had higher annual mean air temperature, higher maximum air temperature of the warmest month and higher minimum temperature of the coldest month, demonstrating that average air temperature, and indirectly, the duration of growing season might be more important factor driving C. raciborskii distribution than measured in situ water temperature. In turn, the presence of C. raciborskii in single localities may be more related to physiological adaptations of separated ecotype. Collectively, these results provide novel evidence on the influence of temperature on C. raciborskii distribution in East-European regions but also indicate high ecological plasticity of this species.