Of the natural hazards in Turkey, landslides are the second most devastating in terms of socioeconomic losses, with the majority of landslides occurring in the Eastern Black Sea Region. The aim of this study is to use a statistical approach to carry out a landslide susceptibility assessment in one area at great risk from landslides: the Sera River Basin located in the Eastern Black Sea Region. This paper applies a multivariate statistical approach in the form of a logistics regression model to explore the probability distribution of future landslides in the region. The model attempts to find the best fitting function to describe the relationship between the dependent variable, here the presence or absence of landslides in a region and a set of independent parameters contributing to the occurrence of landslides. The dependent variable (0 for the absence of landslides and 1 for the presence of landslides) was generated using landslide data retrieved from an existing database and expert opinion. The database has information on a few landslides in the region, but is not extensive or complete, and thus unlike those normally used for research. Slope, angle, relief, the natural drainage network (including distance to rivers and the watershed index) and lithology were used as independent parameters in this study. The effect of each parameter was assessed using the corresponding coefficient in the logistic regression function. The results showed that the natural drainage network plays a significant role in determining landslide occurrence and distribution. Landslide susceptibility was evaluated using a predicted map of probability. Zones with high and medium susceptibility to landslides make up 38.8 % of the study area and are located mostly south of the Sera River Basin and along streams.
The article “Landslide susceptibility mapping of the Sera River Basin using logistic regression model,” written by Nussaïbah B. Raja, Ihsan Çiçek, Necla Türkoğlu, Olgu Aydin, and Akiyuki Kawasaki, was originally published Online First without open access.
Turkey is situated in the temperate zone as the macro climate zone. The fact that it remains under the influence of different air masses in every season due to its mathematical position causes differences are experienced in terms of the climate types. Besides its mathematical position, its special position also causes this influence grows stronger and the differences become clear much more. The fact that it is surrounded with seas from three sides, there are high mountain ranges in its northern and southern, its altitude increases from the west to the east, the roughness is high due to the tectonic effects and river erosion cause different climate types are dominant. The distribution of the dispersion areas of these climate types can be made by means of various climate classifications. Köppen-Geiger climate classification is a classification which is used at most in the world and which is used in the comparison of the past environmental conditions and the current environmental conditions and in the comparison of the future climate differences with our present day. Even if the dispersion areas of the climate types are shown according to Köppen-Geiger climate classification by different researchers at global scale, these classifications cannot reflect the diversity in Turkey in the exact manner due to the lack of data and scale problem. In this study, the monthly average temperature and monthly average total precipitation data of 249 meteorological station associated to the General Directorate of Meteorology and the global monthly average temperature and monthly average total precipitation data of the model printouts having 30-minute (approximately 1 km) resolution were used for the purpose of revealing the climate types which are dominant in Turkey according to Köppen-Geiger climate classification. Two different Köppen-Geiger climate types distribution maps were created depending on these two different data set. According to Köppen-Geiger climate classification, it was revealed that there are 13 different Köppen-Geiger climate zones in Turkey. According to this classification, the Mediterranean coasts were revealed to be in the "temperate-dry-hot summer climate- Csa" class, Konya Region and the southern of the Southeast Anatolia was revealed to be of the "dry-hot and cold steppe climate - Bsh-k" type and ET, that's tundra areas were designated in the Northeast Anatolia and Ararat Mountain. Köppen-Geiger climate zones of Turkey which were produced at low resolution in the previous studies were detailed much more in this study.Extended English summary is in the end of Full Text PDF (TURKISH) file. ÖzetTürkiye, makro iklim bölgesi olarak ılıman kuşakta yer almaktadır. Matematik konumu nedeniyle her mevsimde farklı hava kütlelerinin etkisi altında kalması iklim tipleri bakımından farklılıkların yaşanmasına neden olmaktadır. Matematik konumu yanında özel konumu da bu etkinin kuvvetlenmesine ve farklıkların daha da belirginleşmesine neden olur. Üç tarafının denizlerde çevrili olması, kuzey ve güneyinde yüksek dağ sıralarının bulunması, yükseltisinin batıdan doğuya doğru artması, tektonik etkiler ve akarsu aşındırması nedeniyle engebenin fazla olması kısa mesafelerde farklı iklim tiplerinin hüküm sürmesine neden olmaktadır. Bu iklim tiplerinin yayılış alanlarının dağılışı, çeşitli iklim sınıflandırmaları ile yapılabilmektedir. Köppen-Geiger iklim tasnifi, dünyada en fazla kullanılan, geçmiş ortam şartları ile günümüz ortam şartlarının karşılaştırılmasında ve gelecekteki iklim farklılıklarının günümüzle karşılaştırılmasında kullanılan bir sınıflandırmadır. Küresel ölçekte farklı araştırmacılar tarafından Köppen-Geiger iklim sınıflandırmasına göre iklim tiplerinin yayılış alanları gösterilse bile bu sınıflandırmalar veri yetersizliği ve ölçek problemi nedeniyle Türkiye’deki çeşitliliği tam yansıtamamaktadır. Bu çalışmada Köppen-Geiger iklim sınıflandırmasına göre Türkiye’de hüküm süren ikim tiplerini ortaya koymak amacıyla Meteoroloji Genel Müdürlüğü’ne ait 249 meteoroloji istasyonuna ait aylık ortalama sıcaklık ve aylık ortalama toplam yağış verileri ile 30 dakikalık (yaklaşık 1 km) çözünürlüğe sahip model çıktılarına ait küresel aylık ortalama sıcaklık ve aylık ortalama toplam yağış verileri kullanılmıştır. Bu iki farklı veri setine bağlı iki farklı Köppen-Geiger iklim tipleri dağılışı haritası oluşturulmuştur. Köppen-Geiger iklim sınıflandırmasına göre Türkiye’de 13 farklı Köppen-Geiger iklim bölgesi olduğu ortaya konulmuştur. Bu sınıflandırmaya göre Akdeniz kıyıları “ılıman-kurak-sıcak yaza sahip iklim - Csa” sınıfında çıkarken, Konya Bölümü ve Güneydoğu Anadolu’nun güneyi “kurak-sıcak ve soğuk step iklim- Bsh-k” tipinde, Kuzeydoğu Anadolu’da ve Ağrı Dağı’nda ise ET yani tundra alanlar belirlenmiştir. Daha önceki çalışmalarda düşük çözünürlükte üretilen Türkiye Köppen-Geiger iklim bölgeleri bu çalışmada daha da ayrıntı kazanmıştır.
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