BackgroundHost factors and complications have been associated with higher mortality in infective endocarditis (IE). We sought to develop and validate a model of clinical characteristics to predict 6‐month mortality in IE.Methods and ResultsUsing a large multinational prospective registry of definite IE (International Collaboration on Endocarditis [ICE]–Prospective Cohort Study [PCS], 2000–2006, n=4049), a model to predict 6‐month survival was developed by Cox proportional hazards modeling with inverse probability weighting for surgery treatment and was internally validated by the bootstrapping method. This model was externally validated in an independent prospective registry (ICE‐PLUS, 2008–2012, n=1197). The 6‐month mortality was 971 of 4049 (24.0%) in the ICE‐PCS cohort and 342 of 1197 (28.6%) in the ICE‐PLUS cohort. Surgery during the index hospitalization was performed in 48.1% and 54.0% of the cohorts, respectively. In the derivation model, variables related to host factors (age, dialysis), IE characteristics (prosthetic or nosocomial IE, causative organism, left‐sided valve vegetation), and IE complications (severe heart failure, stroke, paravalvular complication, and persistent bacteremia) were independently associated with 6‐month mortality, and surgery was associated with a lower risk of mortality (Harrell's C statistic 0.715). In the validation model, these variables had similar hazard ratios (Harrell's C statistic 0.682), with a similar, independent benefit of surgery (hazard ratio 0.74, 95% CI 0.62–0.89). A simplified risk model was developed by weight adjustment of these variables.ConclusionsSix‐month mortality after IE is ≈25% and is predicted by host factors, IE characteristics, and IE complications. Surgery during the index hospitalization is associated with lower mortality but is performed less frequently in the highest risk patients. A simplified risk model may be used to identify specific risk subgroups in IE.
There is no apparent survival benefit in delaying surgery when indicated in IE patients after ischemic stroke. Further observational analyses that include detailed pre- and postoperative clinical neurologic findings and advanced imaging data (eg, ischemic stroke size), may allow for more refined recommendations on the optimal timing of valvular surgery in patients with IE and recent stroke syndromes.
In this prospective, multinational cohort of patients with S. aureus PVIE, EVS was not associated with reduced 1-year mortality. The decision to pursue EVS should be individualized for each patient, based upon infection-specific characteristics rather than solely upon the microbiology of the infection causing PVIE.
Topical use of either tranexamic acid or aprotinin efficiently reduces postoperative bleeding. TA seems to be at least as potent as aprotinin, but potentially safer and with better cost-effectiveness ratio.
The performance of known prediction models for AKI-D was found reasonably well in the prediction of KDIGO-AKI, with the model by Thakar having the highest predictive value in the discrimination of patients with risk for all KDIGO-AKI stages.
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