This article considers the ideational and political contexts in which Project 5-100, the Russian excellence in higher education initiative emerged, as well as the specificities of its organisational and behavioural model. While Project 5-100 has been studied in the academic literature as regards its efficiency and how it affected the performance and inner workings of the participating universities, the question of how the project came about and the characteristic traits of its internal set-up still remain largely overlooked. The study focuses on the involvement of local and international players, arguing that their successful and organic cooperation influenced both the architecture and the implementation of the project. This paper contributes to the literature on policy networks by showing that transnational actors do not necessarily undermine or challenge state power and can on the contrary help governments implement systemic change. Inspired by the international experience of establishing world-class universities, Project 5-100 was conceived and lobbied by a small but influential group of visionaries pushing for change who – acting in a concerted and purposive manner – acquired a novel and powerful capacity to use international expertise for the development of a key national project, capable of deeply transforming the country’s higher educational system.
We present algorithms for singular spectrum analysis and local approximation methods used to extrapolate time series. We analyze the advantages and disadvantages of these methods and consider the peculiarities of applying them to various systems. Based on this analysis, we propose a generalization of the local approximation method that makes it suitable for forecasting very noisy time series. We present the results of numerical simulations illustrating the possibilities of the proposed method.
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