Populations living in favelas are facing even more vulnerabilities with the sudden escalation of the COVID-19 pandemic, as social distancing is challenging in such settings. Furthermore, these populations typically lack proper sanitation and hygiene conditions, which are requirements to adequately control the outbreak. This paper proposes the use of System Dynamics modeling to support the public policy-making process in order to avert negative effects of the pandemic in the Brazilian favelas based on measures elicited from the social movement named “Favelas Contra o Corona.” The simulation model assessed the effectiveness of strategies and policy bundles encompassing temporary transfer of the favela population, supply of hygiene products, emergency sanitation structures, and expansion of Intensive Care Units. Results indicate that a suitable combination of strategies can bring significant effects to the number of avoidable deaths and the availability of Intensive Care Units for the population.
Populations living in favelas are facing even more vulnerabilities with the sudden escalation of the COVID-19 pandemic, as social distancing is challenging in such settings. Furthermore, these populations typically lack proper sanitation and hygiene conditions, which are requirements to adequately control the outbreak. This paper proposes the use of System Dynamics modeling to support the public policy-making process in order to avert negative effects of the pandemic in the Brazilian favelas based on measures elicited from the social movement named “Favelas Contra o Corona.” The simulation model assessed the effectiveness of strategies and policy bundles encompassing temporary transfer of the favela population, supply of hygiene products, emergency sanitation structures, and expansion of Intensive Care Units. Results indicate that a suitable combination of strategies can bring significant effects to the number of avoidable deaths and the availability of Intensive Care Units for the population.
A pandemia do novo coronavírus tem desafiado o mundo pela rápida contaminação, potencializada pela globalização. Medidas de prevenção e controle tentam poupar os sistemas de saúde. No Brasil, as populações vivendo em favelas carecem das condições seguras para o necessário isolamento social, além de não contarem com saneamento básico e acesso a produtos de higiene. Neste sentido, este estudo descreve um processo de mobilização voluntária de pesquisadores em uma iniciativa para avaliar os potenciais impactos de diferentes políticas públicas no combate à pandemia. Essas propostas foram levantadas junto às comunidades com o objetivo de entender seus potenciais efeitos na disponibilidade hospitalar do sistema público de saúde e no número de vidas potencialmente salvas. Resultados mostram que essa abordagem é adequada para tratar problemas complexos em conjunto com as comunidades envolvidas.Palavras-chave: COVID-19. Saúde pública. Políticas públicas. Favelas. Dinâmica de Sistemas.
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