This technical appendix describes the study's cohort model, developed by RAND to support a Robust Decision Making (RDM) analysis of SACOG's Metropolitan Transportation Plan and Sustainable Communities Strategy (MTP/SCS). It also provides additional results from this model and discusses some of its limitations. Cohort ModelThe cohort model draws on a modeling exercise SACOG conducted for the California Air Resources Board (CARB) to stress-test their plan's projected reduction of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for the year 2036 under the requirements of California Senate Bill 375 (Steinberg, 2008). To generate SB 375 emissions results for the exercise, SACOG used the 2016 version of SACSIM (Bradley, Bowman, & Griesenbeck, 2010) also known as SACSIM 16, a regional activity-based travel model that informs development and evaluates performance of the MTP/SCS. Construction of Cohort GroupsSACOG stratified the SACSIM model projections using categories of age (5), household income (5), residential density (6), and household proximity to transit (3) as shown in Table A1.A total of 450 cohorts were created from unique combinations of these four categories (5 × 5 × 6 × 3). These stratified cohorts and their associated SACSIM projections for 2036 provide a useful foundation for RAND's RDM analysis, allowing us to add elasticities representing external conditions (e.g., vehicle technology and fuel costs) and policy options (e.g., pricing), and then interpolating and extrapolating among different plausible futures.

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